When will the US have its first outbreak of Avian Flu?
Ends: 12/31/11 @ 11:59 PM PST
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TIP:
Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.
| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| Will not happen before 2012 | $31.05 | 0.00 |
| In 2010 | $17.38 | 0.00 |
| In 2011 | $17.38 | 0.00 |
| First half of 2009 (Jan 1st - Jun 30) | $13.95 | 0.00 |
| Second half of 2009 (July 1st-Dec 31st) | $13.95 | 0.00 |
| Second half of 2008 (July 1st-Dec 31st) | $6.27 | 0.00 |
| First half of 2008 (Before July 1st) | $1.88/ $0.00 | (closed) |
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discussion
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trades: 387 •
markets run: 6 •
member since: 10/25/07
What qualifies as an ‘outbreak’ of Avian flu? Is this basically predicting the first case? or the first group of cases that spread significantly?
trades: 39 •
markets run: 3 •
member since: 08/21/07
Should be an actual set of cases in the state, where its spreading. An American catching it while working overseas really wouldn’t count. If the CDC or WHO post about it, then it’d definitely count. I’d also say if some announcements to that effect hit newspapers. That make sense?