Which of the following indices will outperform in 2008? (Inkling Markets Public Marketplace)

Which of the following indices will outperform in 2008?

Ends: 12/31/08 @ 01:00 PM PST

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TIP:

Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.

PREDICTIONS	CURRENT VALUE	TODAY
Dow Jones Industrial Average	$48.01/ $48.01	(closed)
MSCI Emerging Markets Index	$48.01/ $48.01	(closed)
10-Year Treasury Notes	$0.00/ $0.00	(closed)
MSCI EAFE	$0.00/ $0.00	(closed)
Nasdaq Composite Index	$0.00/ $0.00	(closed)
Russell 2000	$0.00/ $0.00	(closed)
S&P 500	$0.00/ $0.00	(closed)

TAGS

bonds dow markets MSCI Nasdaq Russell S&P stock Treasuries

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discussion

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wstritt trades: 12804 • markets run: 45 • member since: 04/10/07

Out perform what? The other indices in this market? If so, shouldn’t probabilities add up to 100% rather than 350%?

written: Feb 10 2008 @ 10:09 AM PST | DISCLOSURE - This user is participating in this market.

ChloeBurns trades: 2593 • markets run: 8 • member since: 01/13/08

Yes. That’s how I created this market. I’m not sure how it got mixed up, but I am trying to fix it. This market will reopen as soon as the problem is corrected.

written: Feb 10 2008 @ 10:15 AM PST

wstritt trades: 12804 • markets run: 45 • member since: 04/10/07

Fix of pay-off at 100 somewhat painful since the only 2 trades (mine) were shorts. No need to pay off at 0 either. Reversing the trades or closing them at 49 (average short price) would probably work also.

written: Feb 10 2008 @ 10:51 AM PST | DISCLOSURE - This user is participating in this market.

ChloeBurns trades: 2593 • markets run: 8 • member since: 01/13/08

Oops. My intent was to reward you for noting the problem. Unfortunately, I cannot adjust the outcome any longer. You will have to contact the Inkling administrator. I was trying to do the right thing here! I should have just unwound the trade.

written: Feb 10 2008 @ 11:20 AM PST

market information

This market attempts to predict where you should put your money in 2008. The outcome will be determined by the Total Return, ie, Price Return plus Dividend Yield, for each of the indices. The return for 10y Treasuries is fixed at 4.03%. The intent is to mimic how your investment would do if you bought 31 Dec 07 and sold 31 Dec 08.

stock information

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Will the large-cap industrials outperform this year?

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

How about the volatile emerging markets of the world?

10-Year Treasury Notes

Is the consistent return of bonds the best play for 2008?

MSCI EAFE

Are the developed economies of Europe, Australia and the Far East the right investment for 2008?

Nasdaq Composite Index

Will the tech-heavy NASDAQ outperform this year?

Russell 2000

Is the somewhat contrarian small-cap index the right play for ’08?

S&P 500

is this broad-based, domestic large-cap index the right investment in 2008?