I often wonder about you fellow players. Who are you? How do you play? How serious are you? What other interesting stuff do you do? So that’s the kind of thing I’m putting here.

My bio: I’m Charlie Loyd, a professional nerd. I co-founded Draftastic, a collaborative editor that actually works. I have no background in economics, although I often wish I did. (In fact, I’d appreciate introductory text recommendations from you pros and advanced amateurs.) I live in a cool and rainy part of the US.

Inkling is the only prediction market I play. I got as high as #3 on the leaderboard a while ago, but I only play when I have free time, and a new generation of whizkids has knocked me down to #12 as I write. I can still claim credit for introducing today’s #3, Zakarria, to Inkling.

How I play: I use an ad-hoc mix of fundamental analysis and contrarianism. For advice, I can only emphasize the obvious: do some research. Look for markets where, through ignorance, bias, or boredom, people aren’t paying attention. Do a web search and find out what the common-sense view of the issue is – what mainstream newspapers and noncontroversial blogs are saying. The obvious is usually true! Don’t be afraid to play a hunch, but make it an informed hunch.

If you had the time, I bet you could make a good 1%/day just by playing every market exactly as good sources like NPR and The Economist imply when they use phrases like “it is expected to occur before the end of the year” or “estimates put the number at about 500”. Of course, that’s not very fun.

Have fun.

Messages (link above mugshot) welcome.