http://gondwanaland.com/mlog/category/prediction-markets
- What % of the US population will be urban according to the 2010 census?
- Will the Journal of Prediction Markets be listed in the Directory of Open Access Journals before 2011/01/01? See http://doaj.org
- Iraq withdrawal and civilian casualties (improved)
- Iraq withdrawal and civilian casualties
- Will JPM go OA?
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USLEAV07 was false, so cashed out (at 0) two stocks that depended on it being true.
Two remaining stocks depend on whether lower bound IBC increases by 40k from its May 1 number. I did not record May 1 number, but Internet Archive has copies of IBC front page from http://web.archive.org/web/20070408025356/http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ ((April 8) and http://web.archive.org/web/20070509204028/http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ (May 9), lower bounds of 60,835 and 63,067 respectively.
Given 31 days between the numbers I will take the May 1 number to be
60835+(63067-60835)*(22.0/31) = 62419
So the lower bound number published on Jan 1, 2008 has to be 102,419 or greater for IBC >= 40k May-Dec07 to be true.
Iraq withdrawal and civilian casualties (improved) -
USLEAV07 is now priced a 4. Free money selling the stocks that need USLEAV07 to be true or buying their opposites!
Iraq withdrawal and civilian casualties (improved) -
This market ends in 2011 but relevant events occur 20 years later. How does this make sense?
When will peak oil occur? -
Please see http://home.inklingmarkets.com/market/show/2554 for the market that replaced this one, including an explanation of why.
Iraq withdrawal and civilian casualties -
Some people are describing current happenings as civil war but escalating sectarian violence is the term I’ve seen used more often, perhaps that is changing rapidly.
The point of this market is to predict whether US withdrawal would make the violence worse, regardless of what it is called. If deaths increased drastically as specified by the +CW stocks there would be no debating that a civil war had occurred or is ongoing.
Iraq withdrawal and civilian casualties (improved)
