My Current and Expired Markets
Personal Profile
I have no idea what else you want to know about me. But like ‘Top Trader’ Char, I sometimes wonder some about what you all are like. (In his profile, Char asks, “Who are you? How do you play? How serious are you? What other interesting stuff do you do?”)
So here it goes: Who am I?
I’m a PhD Economist working mostly on electric power market topics. Married, kids, so on.
How do I play?
Three basic strategies, and some luck:
One: Basic research. A little time on Google goes a long way. What do I know about the likelihood of Sydney Australia having the wettest October on record? Not much, but if it is half way through the month and they are already 95 percent there, I think that they are likely to make it.
Two: Get in early. Often initial prices are equalized across the possibilities, but often the initial probabilities are not equal. Brazil and the United States were both in the World Cup in 2006, and prices may start level, but they are not equally likely to win. Take an early stake and be patient.
Three: Get in late. It’s cheap, it’s easy, but sometimes a loosely tended market will stay open past the event with prices that guarantee success. If the market will take 6 of your inklings and pay you back 10 tomorrow, it is a good deal.
I also like to arbitrage across markets when possible. While it usually isn’t as profitable as the above strategies, sometimes you can be guaranteed a profit. Arbitraging markets brings out my inner economist.
How serious are you?
Oh, not that serious. Why do you ask?
What other interesting stuff do you do?
I blog about energy economics and electric power issues and other things at Knowledge Problem. I’m also a blog author at Midas Oracle, the prediction market group blog.
- How will George Mason University be seeded in the 2008 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament?
- How long will the Writers Guild of America strike last?
- Which team will win the FIFA Women's World Cup 2007?
- Which team will win the 2007 MLS Cup?
- Will Rep. Dennis Hastert be Speaker of the House for the 110th Congress?
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Can we close this market now?
When will Hillary Rodham Clinton withdraw from the race for the 2008 Democratic nomination -
It looks like I made enough shorting Google and a modest hedge on Verizon to cover up my expensive bets on “None.”
What company will win the 700mhz C-Block spectrum auction for the contiguous US? -
As of round 40, when last a bid was submitted on C-block, the eight regional license bids outweighed the 50-state package bid. The auction is now in Round 116, due to bidding in the A, B, and E blocks, but it looks like the auction action is over insofar as C-block is concerned. (However, by the rules, the C-block auction remains open until all bidding stops in every block. Maybe possible someone comes up with a new bid?)
Of course, maybe one entity bought the 1-6 regional licenses that cover the contiguous states without bidding on the package that includes Alaska and Hawaii too, and if one entity gets licenses 1-6, it will be the winner here.
Still, I think “None” will win.
What company will win the 700mhz C-Block spectrum auction for the contiguous US? -
The strike is over, lasting three months and six days.
NOTE: Having technical difficulties in cashing out the winning position. Will take care of this as soon as possible. Thank you for your patience.
How long will the Writers Guild of America strike last? -
When will the strike end? Officially, not until WGA members ratify the deal….
UPDATE/CORRECTION: The strike is officially over when the WGA calls off the strike, which can and likely will occur before the WGA membership vote up or down on the deal itself.
The WGA is voting on Tuesday, February 12 whether to end the strike and return to work on Wednesday, February 13. If that vote is positive, the strike ends and this market will expire the “More the three months, less than four” contract at 100.
The WGA membership will not complete voting on the new deal with the AMPTP for another 12 days.
How long will the Writers Guild of America strike last?
