Maybe.

To tighten up the market’s definition, I will use CNN as the official decider. This market will use the state whose electoral vote makes more than 270 total.

As stated earlier, the order of when a state releases actual precinct totals will affect how CNN updates its running tally.

So grab an adult beverage and watch Wolf Blitzer on election night!
Which state will decide 2008 president election?

I’m looking for the actual vote tally, as verified by a precinct’s election judge. I was trying to avoid the guesses from the media but I also don’t want to wait for the validation by Congress or state governments that may take place weeks or months later.

In short, this market is for the election night running total based on actual results. If this year is like previous elections, the major news sources will provide the running total as election results are released.

I’ll use the data as provided by CNN or equivalent to see which state pushes a candidate over the 270 Electoral College vote total.

So watch for the battleground states or western states that close polls late. Toss in the complication of electronic voting vs paper ballots. And whatever gaming that state election officials will do to try to be the state that clinches the election (for example, will Arizona hold off announcing if they can help McCain?)
Which state will decide 2008 president election?

No, I’ll use the date of general availability. I suspect that press samples might appear on eBay but I won’t count them either.
When will Google's Android come out?

Oh-no, the bane of prediction markets — the unexpected outcome. I didn’t add a “tie” choice because in the previous years of hurricanes, that possibility had never happened.

In case of a tie in wind speed, I’ll break any tie by looking at lowest pressure. If still tied, I’ll use rainfall.
Which Atlantic hurricane will be the strongest?