This is basically a place to make absurd prediction markets off of random best from people on a news forum. I am taking the gay up a few extra levels. It is gay four times removed.
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based on my extremely vague condition of “who cares” i think the market action today, the number of times it was mentioned on CNBC, and the fact that the WSJ had it above the fold meant that “who cares” was answered with “a lot of people.”
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3113/2668928039_5dcbb6f85b_b.jpg
thusly, i’m paying out “field” at 100.
By 12/31/08, what, if any will be the next financial institution to fail? -
field, for indy mac. the question is if $32 billion is enough. I think it is, but I am willing to hear arguments to the contrary. Hence the Sunday deadline.
This is, admittedly, the fault of an ill defined “large institution” definition on the part of the person who runs the market.
But if you can make an argument as to why a certain dollar ammount higher than indy mac should be used as the rubric, i’ll reopen trading and let it ride.
By 12/31/08, what, if any will be the next financial institution to fail? -
I am thinking it will suffice:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-indymac12-2008jul12,1,7375643.story
geographic footprint is good
http://tinyurl.com/5b93d9
and $32 billion in assets seems also good.
and this should hit the headlines.
However, I will entertain contra arguements as to why it should not suffice, until midnight sunday. trading is suspended until then.
By 12/31/08, what, if any will be the next financial institution to fail? -
well, lets just say that a certain stock is predicting that a certain ex hedge fund manager will sneak back from panama (no extradition, you see) into the US, sneak back into New York, and then jump into the Hudson.
Right now, y’all believe that there is an 8% change that that will happen, so who am I to judge…
Where will police find Samuel Israel III? -
Theortically never, but since exceptionally long markets are boring, I set this to mature in a year.
So “never” in this case, is defined as 06/12/09 @ 09:37 AM. At which point I will cash out as winner “never find him.”
Basically, this market is to test did he fake his suicide?
This means, of course, that “never+1” has a non imaginary value, so the girl who told me she’ll never date me, is totally fair game on 6/13/08.
thanks
Where will police find Samuel Israel III?
