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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| California | $96.50/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Colorado | $94.95/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Connecticut | $97.26/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Delaware | $96.42/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| District of Columbia | $96.91/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Florida | $79.06/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Hawaii | $97.56/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Illinois | $97.29/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Indiana | $31.09/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Iowa | $95.26/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Maine | $96.45/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Maryland | $97.48/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Massachusetts | $97.38/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Michigan | $96.31/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Minnesota | $97.33/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Nevada | $93.47/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| New Hampshire | $95.40/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| New Jersey | $97.37/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| New Mexico | $95.13/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| New York | $97.29/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| North Carolina | $66.38/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Ohio | $81.46/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Oregon | $96.58/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Pennsylvania | $93.71/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Rhode Island | $95.84/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Vermont | $96.85/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Virginia | $94.01/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Washington (State) | $96.21/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Wisconsin | $97.19/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| South Dakota | $5.14/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Alabama | $5.63/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Alaska | $4.97/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Arizona | $8.57/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Arkansas | $4.68/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Georgia | $12.31/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Idaho | $4.06/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Kansas | $4.86/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Kentucky | $5.14/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Luisiana | $5.76/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Mississippi | $4.95/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Missouri | $54.99/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Montana | $23.01/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Nebraska | $4.09/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| North Dakota | $20.95/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Oklahoma | $4.33/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| South Carolina | $4.91/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Tennessee | $4.54/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Texas | $3.80/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Utah | $4.32/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| West Virginia | $4.97/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Wyoming | $4.55/ $0.00 | (closed) |
Good eye, hdubs. That would be me being a doosh and somehow missing it. South Dakota is now available for trading. Sorry, South Dakota.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/all.html should be a good resource for this market.
Are you waiting for the last two states before cashing any of these out?
NBC has called Missouri for McCain and North Carolina for Obama.
I messed up on Maine and Delaware! They should both have been cashed out at $100!
Dreadfully sorry, my bad. I reported it to the admins, so hopefully it should be corrected shortly. I don’t know if this is still the case, but it used to be that you had to keep markets on your dashboard till they fixed it or they couldn’t correct your total, so keep them around.
Woooops. I hadn’t cashed out markets in so long I didn’t realize I could undo the mistake myself! All fixed now.
It looks like we correctly predicted the outcomes in 49 out of 51 jurisdictions, all except Indiana and probably Missouri. Not bad at all.
whoops.
Missouri isn’t official yet.
Each stock in this market will close at $100 if its electoral college votes go to the Democrat in the 2008 Presidential election, and $0 if they go to the Republican.
Please note that Maine and Nebraska don’t necessarily give all their votes to one candidate. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Maine_method) Nebraska has 5 electoral college votes, and the stock will be closed out based on who gets the majority of those votes. Maine has 4 electoral college votes, and will go to the majority winner unless it’s split 2/2, in which case I will close it at $50.
I actually put some useful information in a lot of the specific Stock Info sections, so please go read it. I drew the 2004 vote percentages from http://www.electoral-vote.com/. Please note that all the info sections were written on April 5th, 2007, and refer to various primary candidates, most of whom will be out of the picture before this market closes. Just remember that my pointers on which way states change could be out of date come fall 2008.
One of the more interesting things about this market will be watching the situation change as the primaries progress. I would recommend keeping an eye on state polling, as well as considering the influence certain candidates are likely to have. For instance, much of the midwest is likely to be a tight race. If the general election comes down to, say, an Obama/Vilsack ticket vs a McCain/Paul ticket (not that this seems a likely scenario) then the midwest will start looking much more Democratic.
I will not pay out specific stocks until there is a clear winner. I won’t wait week for an official stamp of approval unless the candidates are actively contesting a count. I will suspend trading once voting has started but hopefully before the results are in.
Enjoy!
55 electoral votes.
California leans strongly towards Democrats, but Kerry only got 55% of the vote in 2004. Also, The Governator will probably campaign heavily for the Republican candidate.
9 electoral college votes.
Colorado leans Republican, but Kerry got 47 percent of the votes in 2004, and several other races have been very close. Expect a tight race and watch for influence of Southwestern candidates if they are on either ticket. (McCain, Richardson.)
7 electoral college votes.
Usually a strongly Democratic state. Kerry won it win 2004 with 54% of the vote. Democratic candidate Christopher Dodd is from Connecticut. Expect influence of Northeastern candidates (Clinton, Dodd, Romney, Giuliani).
3 electoral college votes.
Leans Democratic, Kerry won it with 53% in 2004. Democratic Candidate Joe Biden is a long time Senator from DE.
3 electoral college votes.
Very strongly Democratic. Kerry won the city of DC with 90% of the vote.
27 electoral college votes.
Florida is considered a “swing state”, and has been very close in the last two election cycles. Jeb Bush, brother of George W. Bush, is the former Governor, and has some ties to the Mitt Romney campaign.
4 electoral college votes.
Usually votes Democratic. Barack Obama spent large parts of his childhood here, but not his adult life.
21 electoral college votes.
Illinois usually votes Democratic, but is reasonably close at times. John Kerry got 55% of the vote in 2004. Notably, Barack Obama is the junior Senator from Illinois, and very popular there. Hillary Clinton grew up outside of Chicago, but made no real effort to fund raise in the state in Q1 2007, because Obama had the state locked up.
11 electoral college votes.
Usually votes Republican. John Kerry got 39% of the vote in 2004.
7 electoral college votes.
Iowa was a swing state in 2004, with Kerry just barely losing the state with 49% of the vote. It has a Democratic Governor, 3 Dems in Congress (2 Republicans), and is split 1/1 in the Senate.
Tom Vilsack, early contender for the Democratic nomination who has since endorsed Hillary Clinton, served two terms as Iowas Governor. Expect him to campaign for the democratic candidate, especially if it’s Clinton.
Maine has 4 electoral college votes, but does not necessarily give them all to one candidate. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Maine_method for more information.
IMPORTANT: This stock will close at %100 if the Democrat gets at least 3 of the 4 electoral college votes, and $0 if the Republican does. If Maine’s electoral college votes are split 2/2, this stock will close at $50.
10 electoral college votes.
Usually votes Democratic. Kerry got 56% of the vote in 2004.
12 electoral college votes.
Strongly Democratic. Kerry (who is from MA), got 62% of the vote there in 2004. However, Mitt Romney, a leading Republican presidential hopeful as of April ’07, was the last Governor of MA.
17 electoral college votes.
Michigan is a potential swing state. John Kerry barely won it in 2004, with 51% of the vote.
10 electoral college votes.
MN was close in 2004. Kerry won it with 51% of the vote.
5 electoral college votes.
Commonly thought of as Republican, but Kerry picked up 48% of the vote in 2004. Their Republican Governor won with only 48% of the vote, and both their House and Senate seats are split 1/1.
4 electoral college votes.
NH was a swing state in 2004. Kerry won it with 50% of the vote. They’re Democratic Governor won with 74% of the vote and both their House representatives are Democrats, but both their Senators are Republicans.
15 electoral college votes.
New Jersey is generally a democratic state, but Kerry won with only 53% of the vote in 2004. Look for familiarity with if not necessarily love of candidates from NY and other Northeastern areas like Clinton, Giuliani, and Romney.
5 electoral college votes.
NM was a swing state in 2004. Kerry got 49% of the vote but lost. They have a 2/1 Republican lead in House Reps, but they have a 1/1 split on Senators, and like neighboring Arizona, a very popular Democratic Governor. Bill Richardson won reelection to the Governorship in 2006, with 69% of the vote. Richardson is considered a second tier Democratic candidate for President as of Q1 2007, but is thought to be high on the list of likely vice Presidential picks, though he’s denied interest in that position.
If Richardson is on the ticket, expect a strong Democratic turnout in NM. If McCain gets the Republican nomination, expect a strong Republican turnout.
31 electoral college votes.
Strongly Democratic. If Giuliani is on the Republican ticket, they might have a better chance at New York than they have in a very long time, but don’t expect too much even then. Republicans hold no Senate seats from NY, and only 6 out of 29 House Reps. Kerry received 59 percent of the vote in 2004, and Hillary Clinton, likely Democratic candidate for President, had a very easy time winning reelection to the Senate from NY. Giuliani, by contrast, wasn’t actually a very popular mayor before 9/11.
15 electoral college votes.
Generally strongly Republican. This is John Edwards’ home state, but the Kerry/Edwards campaign lost it in 2004 with only 44% of the vote. Edwards served 1 term as Senator from NC, but only won that election with 51% of the vote.
20 electoral college votes.
Ohio has been a very tight swing state in at least the last two presidential elections, and is likely to stay that way.
7 electoral college votes.
Oregon is often tossed around early in electoral cycles as a swing state, but generally leans Democratic. Kerry won it with 52% of the vote. Oregon’s votes may depend largely on who the nominees are.
Oregon’s Democratic base generally leans a bit farther left than some, and may turn out in greater numbers for a Democratic Candidate young activist types find more provocative, such as Obama, as compared to Hillary Clinton.
Oregon’s Republican base leans more towards Libertarian than Evangelical, so the Republican candidate may notably effect turn out as well.
21 electoral college votes.
Pennsylvania leans slightly towards Democratic, but Kerry won it in 2004 with only 51% of the vote. Northeastern candidates will do well here, but expect a close race either way.
4 electoral college votes.
Strongly Democratic. Expect Northeastern candidates to do well here. (Romney, Giuliani, Clinton).
3 electoral college votes.
Strongly democratic. Kerry got 59% in 2004.
13 electoral college votes.
Leans Republican. Kerry got 45% of the vote in 2004.
11 electoral college votes.
Leans Democratic. Kerry won with 53% of the vote in 2004. Could be close.
10 electoral college votes.
Expect a tight race here. Kerry won it in 2004 with 50% of the vote. Tommy Thompson, Republican Presidential candidate and possible Vice Presidential pick, served 4 terms as Governor of Wisconsin.
9 electoral college votes.
Strongly Republican. Kerry got 37% of the vote in 2004.
3 electoral college votes.
Strongly Republican. Kerry got 35% of the vote in 2004.
10 electoral college votes.
Generally thought of as Republican, and the home state of Republican candidate John McCain. However, AZ has a very popular Democratic Governor, Janet Napolitano, who was reelected with 63 percent of the vote. Both their Senators are Republicans, and their House seats are split 4/4. AZ has regional connections with New Mexico, so if Bill Richardson (Gov. of NM) is on the Democratic ticket, look for a boost here.
6 electoral college votes.
Leans Republican. Kerry got 45% of the vote in 2004. Mike Huckabee, a second tier Republican candidate as of Q1 2007, served two terms as Governor of Arkansas.
15 electoral college votes.
Georgia usually goes Republican. John Kerry got 41% of the vote here in 2004.
4 electoral college votes.
Usually votes Republican. John Kerry got 30% of the vote in 2004.
6 electoral college votes.
Usually votes Republican. Kerry got 37% in 2004.
8 electoral college votes.
Usually votes Republican. Kerry got 40% of the vote in 2004.
9 electoral college votes.
Usually votes Republican in the past, Kerry got 42% of the vote in 2004. However, frustration over the Bush administration’s handling of the aftermath of hurricane Katrina may sway public opinion. John Edwards started his anti-poverty focussed campaign with a speech in New Orleans.
9 electoral college votes.
Strongly Republican. Kerry got 40% in 2004.
11 electoral college votes.
Generally Republican leaning, but Kerry got 46% of the vote in 2004. Their Republican Governor won with only 49% of the vote, they have 5 republicans and 4 democrats in the house, and they’re split 1/1 in the Senate.
3 electoral college votes.
Strongly Republican. Kerry got 39% in 2004.
5 electoral college votes, but they use the Maine Method. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Maine_method
The stock will close based on the party that recieves the majority of the electoral college votes.
Strongly Republican, Kerry got 32% of the vote in 2004.
3 electoral college votes.
Strongly Republican. Kerry got 36% of the vote in 2004.
7 electoral college votes.
Strongly Republican. Kerry got 34% of the vote in 2004.
8 electoral college votes.
Strongly Republican. Kerry got 41% in 2004.
11 electoral college votes.
Strongly Republican. Kerry got 43% in 2004.
34 electoral college votes.
Strongly Republican. Kerry got 38% in 2004. Expect Democrats to do better running against someone other than Bush, but not by much.
5 electoral college votes.
Extremely strong Republican base. Kerry got only 26% of the vote in 2004. Expect an even stronger Republican showing if Romney (he’s Mormon) is on the ticket.
5 electoral college votes.
Strongly Republican. Kerry got 43% of the vote in 2004.
3 electoral college votes.
Very strong Republican. Kerry got 29% of the vote in 2004.