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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| 8. H.S. Musical 3 ($46.7M) | $97.90/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| 3. Madagascar 2 ($81.9M) | $99.02/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| 2. Quantum of Solace ($82.1M) | $96.74/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| 10. Bolt ($40.3M) | $99.09/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| 7. Four Christmases ($49.5M) | $99.25/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| 1. Twilight ($93.4M) | $96.24/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| 6. Benjamin Button ($48.4M/6 days) | $35.90/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| 5. Bedtime Stories ($54.M/6 days) | $94.53/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| 4. Marley and Me ($65.6M/6 days) | $34.89/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| 9. Valkyrie ($40.9M) | $2.24/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Cadillac Records | $0.96/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Nobel Son | $0.62/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Doubt | $0.93/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| An American Carol | $0.87/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Appaloosa | $1.34/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| The Secret Life of Bees | $0.49/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Sex Drive | $0.84/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Role Models | $0.59/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Delgo | $0.46/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| How To Lose Friends | $0.71/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Flash of Genius | $0.71/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| The Accidental Husband | $6.94/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Bangkok Dangerous | $5.76/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Righteous Kill | $0.17/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| The Family That Preys | $0.21/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| The Women | $2.20/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Ghost Town | $8.35/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Igor | $6.94/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Lakeview Terrace | $6.94/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| My Best Friend's Girl | $4.77/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Taken | $5.34/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Burn After Reading | $1.02/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Eagle Eye ($36.9M) | $70.44/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Blindness | $0.65/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Miracle at St. Anna | $2.11/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Nights in Rodanthe | $1.81/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Beverly Hills Chihuahua | $1.32/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist | $0.56/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| City of Ember | $1.36/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| The Express | $0.68/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Body of Lies | $3.85/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Quarantine | $0.68/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Max Payne | $0.17/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| W. | $0.16/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| The Brothers Bloom | $4.77/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Crossing Over | $3.25/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Pride & Glory | $1.00/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Saw V | $22.45/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Zack and Miri Make a Porno | $1.80/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Changeling | $1.80/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| RockNRolla | $2.66/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Australia | $1.02/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Soul Men | $0.15/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Nothing Like the Holidays | $1.00/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Transporter 3 | $1.00/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Punisher: War Zone | $0.82/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| 11. The Day the Earth ... ($38.5) | $98.37/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Seven Pounds | $4.48/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| The Tale of Despereaux | $3.49/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Yes Man | $4.32/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Hurricane Season | $6.94/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| The Spirit | $9.22/ $0.00 | (closed) |
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Where is Burn After Reading?
It’s on the list now. Thanks.
FREE INKLE IDEA FOR THE WEEK OF 9/15
This idea is a naked short so some risk is involved, but the market is mispricing this stock and I think you can earn some inkles by shorting RocknRolla.
The entertainment press has widely reported that Alan Horn, the president of Warner Brothers, screened this film and hated it. Joel Silver’s contract requires Horn to release the film on 800 screen which qualifies it as a wide release but practically guarantees it will not earn $20M the first week. Even if Horn is wrong about the film, the studio is not going to spend the ad money needed to get this film into the top ten.
DISCLAIMER: I am short RocknRolla. The reason I am sharing this trade with you is that I have reached my self-imposed position limit. Come earn an inkle or two with this trade.
Better yet, short Ghost Town and/or Igor and probably get cashed out by Monday then short Blindness and cash out the next Monday then short Nick and Norahs playlist and Flash of Genius and cash out the next Monday then short The Express and Quarantine cash out and then short Rocknrolla. Some chance one of those will hit the $20MM minimum but you can probably churn shorts in this market every week for a bunch of Inkles.
Definitely. Or if you’re patient and have money to tie up, you could short out all the films ranked 7th through 20th (or as far down the list as you want to go) or so and make a guaranteed tidy profit by year’s end.
Just to be certain… The market closes on December 25 but some of the movies listed open on December 25. Will the first week’s opening numbers include those dollars earned frmo December 25 to January 1?
Actually, the gross earnings through the 31st of December (except for Valkyrie, which will be through Jan. 1).
So the final cashouts will come about a week after the market closes, depending on when Box Office Mojo publishes the numbers. I probably will be able to cash out four films before Christmas, since there are six movies opening on the 25th and 26th.
The opening date of Valkyrie has been changed to Christmas, so only gross earnings through the end of the year will count for the new films this week.
Thanks for the clarification. You could probably have counted Valkyrie’s gross through 1/1 (maybe even 1/8) and it probably wouldn’t have made a difference for purposes of this market.
Probably true. By the way, do you have any idea why Yes Man is worth so much? Its earnings (and those of all films) will be quite low today (Christmas Eve), and with all the new films on the market on Christmas, I can’t imagine it’s going to get more than $10 million in the next two days.
I think the uncertainty of the holiday week – would Monday & Tuesday be better than normal with Thursday being well above normal kicking it above Saw V. After the actual Tuesday numbers came out, doesn’t look promising.
Having school out and many people away from work definitely will be a factor in the coming week. My guess is that will benefit Marley and Me, which is competing with Bedtime Stories for the family audience but is getting much better reviews and may have more staying power. I still expect Bedtime Stories to win Christmas Day, however. We’ll see.
Marley beat everyone on Christmas. Must have been the cute dog picture. Mom and Dad must not have read the reviews saying the movie would “traumatize” young children. Either that or they thought the kids could use some depressing reality rather than fun fantasy given economic times.
It’ll be interesting to see what word of mouth does during the coming few days. If M&M sees a big dropoff, I suspect it’ll be for the reason you gave.
It’ll also be interesting to see how Valkyrie does during the coming week. I think it has the potential of ending up in the top 10. Not likely, but possible.
Please close out The Day the Earth Stood still.
Thanks.
It depends on how Valkyrie does at the box office in the next few days. If the weekend studio estimates hold up and if Valkyrie gets less than $2 million on Monday, I’ll cash it out at $0 (and cash out Earth at $100). Otherwise, I’ll wait another day and see how Valkyrie does Tuesday. I’d rather wait until more numbers are in rather than take the chance of having to reverse a payout.
It’s looking now like I’ll have to wait until the New Year’s Eve numbers are in before I can cash this out; it’s that close. Hopefully those numbers will be posted Friday.
Looks like Valkyrie is going to overtake Earth. Who would have thought. Going to cost me a bundle. Actually, in my humble opinion, you probably ought to arbitrarily reduce Valkyrie’s box office by 10-20%. I was at the local multiplex on both Friday and Saturday and the only reason Valkyrie was getting takers was that Marley, Benjamin Button, Bedtime Stories and whatever else was showing were already sold out.
So, there they were, at the theater, didn’t think to buy ahead of time on the internet, gotta see something, all the stuff you really wanted to see sold out. Desperation buys. Mercy attendance.
Sickens me to think of what poor theater allocation on the part of theater owners is going to do to my Inkle balance. Excuse me, I have to go retch.
I did think that Marley and Me was way underrated in this market, although I never figured it would do as well as it did. (My 8-year-old son saw it yesterday, by the way, and thought it was quite good.) But the apparent success of Valkyrie is definitely the biggest surprise. Who would have thought that three movies would break the record for Christmas Day openings, and that Valkyrie wouldn’t be far behind?
I had a little Marley in the single digits but then sold it when it moved up and after looking at a chart of year over year box office performance for 4th quarter through mid-December. With all the bad economic news and big drop in retail sales, and then the ho-hum preditions on boxofficeguru.com, I was a bit worried that Christmas might be off which also led me to sell my Button shares, short Valkyrie and go long Earth.
Clearly wrong read. Even though a family trip to the movies isn’t cheap anymore, less retail spending may have helped trigger jump in box office as families looked for something else to cheer the holidays.
This prediction market is based on the box office receipts in the United States for movies released between September 1, 2008, and December 26, 2008. The receipts that count are those received in the first seven days of wide release. (If the movie shows in sneak previews or in limited release, those numbers aren’t included in the total and don’t count as a wide release.) For example, if a film opens on Friday, the numbers that count are those through the following Thursday; if a film opens on a Wednesday, the numbers that count are those through the following Tuesday.
The numbers used in this market are those that can be found at Box Office Mojo. That site has a list of the weekly opening numbers here. Definitions used on that page are the ones that will be used for this market.
If Box Office Mojo ceases operations or no longer provides the needed data, this market will be based on The Numbers.
If a film ranks in the top 10 of opening 7-day receipts, it will cash out at $100. If it fails to make the top 10, it will cash out at $0. An exact tie for 10th place will be resolved in favor of cashing out both films at $100.
Opening dates listed in the market are subject to change. If a film fails to open in wide release (defined by Box Office Mojo as 600 or more theaters) by Dec. 25, 2008, it will cash out at $0.
If a film grosses more than $100 million in its first week of wide release, it will be deemed to be in the top 10. If a film grosses less than $20 million in its first week of wide release, it will be deemed to not be in the top 10. Thus it is theoretically possible (although extremely unlikely) that there will be more or less than 10 winning stocks in this market.
If there is a film that should be on this list and isn’t, please contact the market owner or post a message in the discussion area of this page. Films may be added to the list if new opening dates are announced, or some may be cashed out at $0 if it is announced that an opening date has been postponed.
Shares in any film may be cashed out before the market closes in order to speed payment to traders, and the market owner intends to do so as personal schedules allow. No film will be cashed out before opening-day numbers are available (except for those whose openings have been postponed).
Current rankings, opening dates and dollar amounts in the list may be based on preliminary data and are subject to change. The numbers that count for determining the market payouts are the nonpreliminary numbers on Box Office Mojo once they are posted there, not the numbers listed here.