Thanks to all for participating!

This market ends on May 11, 2007. How will it be resolved at that time?

And I sure hope no one is using Wikipedia for their trade decisions on this one – they are wildly off from reality.

Switched the end date to December 31st, 2007. Thanks!

Sorry to be such a gadfly on this one but clarification is needed. If the GDP is the measure, how do you exclude PPP (purchasing power parity)? Which would make China already the world’s second largest economy as measured by the U.S. dollar – by far! Or did you mean GDP excluding “per capital PPP”

https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/docs/notesanddefs.html#2001

Glad to clarify:
GDP can be expressed either as a simple conversion of the overall economy from the country’s primary currency to a standard (nominal GDP), usually US $, or adjusted to reflect the domestic buying power of that nominal number (PPP). PPP is usually more useful for comparing internal standards of living rather than external economic size/stength.

Whew! Well that clarifies it for me all right. I think I will leave this market to top guy, onemike – he’s the economist if I remember correctly.

But thanks for being such a responsive market-maker!

After running some numbers it does seem like it might take a bit longer than to the end of 2007. I used historical data from Mathematica’s CountryData[] function.

Does this figure excludes the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau? Also what data will be considered, IMF or World Bank?
Please clarify

Also would you clarify what exchange rate that’s used? I suppose GDP figures are going to be converted to USD using market exchange rate on Dec 31, 2007

Will use IMF figures, which are updated more frequently and are adjusted for comparison across countries / currencies. Note it may take time past close of the market for final figures to be released.