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Category: Science
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suspended
When will FAST, the Chinese radio telescope, become operational?
Most Active Answer
Not before 2020
19.93% chance
2015
0.36% chance
2016
19.92% chance
2017
19.92% chance
2018
19.92% chance
2019
19.92% chance
Not before 2020
19.93% chance

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How strong will Joaquin be when it makes landfall (for the first time) in the mainland United States?
Most Likely Answer
does not make landfall
77.27% chance
category 1
6.60% chance
category 2
6.60% chance
category 3 or higher
2.93% chance
does not make landfall
77.27% chance
tropical storm or tropical depression
6.60% chance

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GEORGIA.
57.02% chance
LOUISIANA.
11.51% chance
Tie.
1.04% chance
WISCONSIN.
10.41% chance
WYOMING.
20.00% chance

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When will Solar Impulse 2 next take flight?
Most Likely Answer
Between January 01 and June 30
28.75% chance
Before January 01
17.10% chance
Between January 01 and June 30
28.75% chance
Between July 01 and December 31
17.79% chance
Between January 01 and June 30
19.27% chance
Not before July 01
17.09% chance
When will the Mars Rover Opportunity permanently stop communicating with NASA control?
Most Active Answer
Before September 01
49.95% chance
no change ($0.00) today
Before September 01
0.00% chance
Before December 01
0.00% chance
Before March 01
0.00% chance
Before June 01
0.00% chance
Before September 01
0.00% chance
Before December 01
0.00% chance
Before March 01
0.00% chance
Before June 01
0.00% chance
Before September 01
49.95% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between August 28 and November 30
25.00% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between November 28 and February 28
12.51% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between February 28 and May 31
6.26% chance
no change ($0.00)
Not before May 28
6.26% chance
no change ($0.00)
When will the El Nino event that began in 2014 end?
Most Active Answer
Not before March 01
38.81% chance
no change ($0.00) today
Before July 01
0.00% chance
Before August 01
0.00% chance
Before September 01
0.00% chance
Before October 01
0.00% chance
Before November 01
0.00% chance
Before December 01
0.00% chance
Before January 01
0.00% chance
Before February 01
0.00% chance
Before March 01
0.00% chance
Before April 01
0.00% chance
Before May 01
0.00% chance
Before June 01
0.00% chance
Before July 01
0.00% chance
Before August 01
0.00% chance
Before September 01
0.00% chance
Before October 01
0.00% chance
Before November 01
0.00% chance
Before December 01
0.00% chance
Before January 01
0.00% chance
Before February 01
0.00% chance
Before March 01
0.00% chance
Before April 01
0.00% chance
Before May 01
0.00% chance
Before June 01
0.00% chance
Before July 01
9.97% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between July 01 and July 31
8.95% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between August 01 and August 31
8.10% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between September 01 and September 30
7.27% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between October 01 and October 31
6.55% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between November 01 and November 30
5.90% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between December 01 and December 31
5.32% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between January 01 and January 31
4.79% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between February 01 and February 28
4.31% chance
no change ($0.00)
Not before March 01
38.81% chance
no change ($0.00)

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What will be the largest earthquake to hit the continental United States in 2015?
Most Active Answer
5.66.0
20.34% chance
4.0 or below
0.00% chance
4.14.5
0.01% chance
4.65.0
15.37% chance
5.15.5
17.26% chance
5.66.0
20.34% chance
6.16.5
15.68% chance
6.67.0
15.37% chance
7.07.5
15.68% chance
7.6 or greater
0.26% chance

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When will Rosewell Park Cancer Institute begin clinical trials of the Lung Cancer vaccine Cimavax?
Most Active Answer
On or after January 1, 2017
20.02% chance
On or Before December 31, 2015
16.38% chance
Between January 1, 2016March 1, 2016
15.74% chance
Between March 2, 2016June 1, 2016
16.38% chance
Between June 2, 2016September 1, 2016
15.74% chance
Between September 2, 2016  December 31, 2016
15.74% chance
On or after January 1, 2017
20.02% chance

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How long will the X37B Orbital Test Vehicle orbit during its fourth mission to space?
Most Active Answer
300 days or less
21.85% chance
300 days or less
21.85% chance
301400 days
13.51% chance
401500 days
13.51% chance
501600 days
13.51% chance
601700 days
13.51% chance
701800 days
14.06% chance
More than 800 days
10.01% chance

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How many named storms will there be in the Atlantic in 2015?
Most Active Answer
11
68.55% chance
8 or fewer
0.00% chance
9
0.00% chance
10
0.00% chance
11
68.55% chance
12
30.79% chance
13
0.62% chance
14
0.01% chance
15
0.00% chance
16
0.00% chance
17
0.00% chance
18
0.00% chance
19
0.00% chance
20 or more
0.00% chance

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What month will have the strongest earthquake in 2015?
Most Active Answer
September
84.27% chance
January
0.02% chance
February
0.02% chance
March
0.01% chance
April
0.02% chance
May
0.02% chance
June
0.02% chance
July
0.02% chance
August
0.02% chance
September
84.27% chance
October
0.21% chance
November
4.79% chance
December
10.52% chance

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Between April 20th 2014 and January 1st 2015, the highest registered earthquake within 100 miles of the city of Los Angeles will be of the following magnitude.
Most Likely Answer
Magnitude 6.5  6.9
33.83
Magnitude 6.0 to 6.4
32.73
Magnitude 6.5  6.9
33.83
Magnitude 7.0 or above
21.83
2014
0.00% chance
2015
0.00% chance
2016
1.23% chance
2017
0.08% chance
2018
9.66% chance
2019
14.41% chance
2020 or later
74.60% chance

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When will the James River drop below flood stage near Columbia?
Most Likely Answer
m. December 23  31
9.13% chance
a. October 8 or earlier
4.10% chance
b. October 916
4.10% chance
c. October 1724
6.63% chance
d. October 2531
7.18% chance
e. November 18
8.10% chance
f. November 916
8.96% chance
g. November 1723
9.13% chance
h. November 2430
9.13% chance
i. December 18
9.13% chance
k. December 915
9.13% chance
l. December 1622
9.13% chance
m. December 23  31
9.13% chance
n. in 2012
6.12% chance

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What will be the hottest, coldest, wettest, dryest days of Summer in Chicago, IL? (June through September)
Most Likely Answer
Hottest Day of Summer
July 20, 2011
Coldest Day of Summer
June 29, 2011
Dryest Day of Summer
July 11, 2011
Hottest Day of Summer
July 20, 2011
Wettest Day of Summer
June 23, 2011

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Which Millennium Prize problem will be solved next?
Most Likely Answer
Riemann hypothesis
25.61% chance
Birch and SwinnertonDyer conjecture
15.84% chance
Hodge conjecture
12.97% chance
NavierStokes existence and smoothness
16.49% chance
P versus NP problem
15.29% chance
Riemann hypothesis
25.61% chance
YangMills existence and mass gap
13.77% chance

suspended
When will the next Nankai earthquake occur?
Most Active Answer
In 2018 or later
25.05% chance
In 2009
0.00% chance
In 2010
0.00% chance
In 2011
0.00% chance
In 2012
0.00% chance
In 2013
2.41% chance
In 2014
2.22% chance
In 2015
23.59% chance
In 2016
23.60% chance
In 2017
23.12% chance
In 2018 or later
25.05% chance

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When will an effective AIDS Vaccine be made available?
Most Likely Answer
within 10 years
37.53% chance
never
28.02% chance
within 10 years
37.53% chance
within 15 years
34.23% chance
within 5 years
0.21% chance

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