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What will be the margin of victory for the winner of the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary on 4/22?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Clinton 12%+

(closed)

Predicted: 4.45%

Actual: 0.00%

Clinton 4%-8%

(closed)

Predicted: 50.71%

Actual: 0.00%

Clinton 8%-12%

(closed)

Predicted: 31.38%

Actual: 100.00%

Less than 4% (Either)

(closed)

Predicted: 11.60%

Actual: 0.00%

Obama 12%+

(closed)

Predicted: 0.27%

Actual: 0.00%

Obama 4%-8%

(closed)

Predicted: 0.81%

Actual: 0.00%

Obama 8%-12%

(closed)

Predicted: 0.75%

Actual: 0.00%

Other

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

April 22, 2008 @ 06:17am PDT

Predictions Made

230

Most by: Garth Brewer (61 predictions)

Discussion

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wstritt   •   Wed Apr 23 2008 at 10:22am PDT

At 9.2% margin with 99.44% reporting as I write, seems safely in the 8-12% Clinton margin bucket.

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1

neil0810   •   Tue Apr 22 2008 at 06:47pm PDT

It’s right at 8% now – does that pay both 4-8 and 8-12?

historical trend

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More information about the possible answers

Clinton 12%+

Clinton 4%-8%

Clinton 8%-12%

Less than 4% (Either)

Obama 12%+

Obama 4%-8%

Obama 8%-12%

Other