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Will Florida or Michigan have another Democratic Primary or Caucus?




Florida Will


Predicted: 2.53%

Actual: 0.00%

Michigan Will


Predicted: 1.98%

Actual: 0.00%

Neither Will


Predicted: 97.50%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

April 30, 2008 @ 03:51pm PDT

Predictions Made


Most by: simon_ (134 predictions)


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stomv   •   Thu Mar 06 2008 at 04:52pm PST

Is a caucus considered a primary for this market?

stomv   •   Fri Mar 07 2008 at 01:06am PST

I can’t wait to get in on this. I’m selling Michigan short because I believe Michigan will have a caucus, not a primary. They’re clearly different, and if MI holds a caucus, I doubt they’ll also hold a primary (a la the Texas model).

jmassingill   •   Fri Mar 07 2008 at 06:37am PST

Yes, I would consider anything that would require the voters of that state to vote again. I’m sorry for the confusion.

jmassingill   •   Fri Mar 07 2008 at 06:40am PST

I tried to change the question to “Will Florida or Michigan have another Democrat Primary or Caucus?” but the system will not allow such a change after the market has been created.

mvguy   •   Sat Mar 08 2008 at 11:51am PST

I’ve reworded a market title after it has started. You might try again. Or if that doesn’t work, you can ask the powers that be to change it for you.

RecycledCardboardBox   •   Wed Mar 12 2008 at 12:26am PDT

I’ve done it as well. Then, I was only changing “who” to “whom”. Maybe there’s a limit on how much you can change?

stomv   •   Fri Mar 07 2008 at 08:10am PST

OK — so I completely changed my position since you’ve made it clear that for this market, a caucus is a primary.

jmassingill   •   Wed Mar 12 2008 at 08:24am PDT

OK, I fixed the title. Once again, sorry for the confusion.

hostetler   •   Wed Mar 12 2008 at 07:51pm PDT

florida annouced it will have a primary, buy buy

wstritt   •   Fri Mar 14 2008 at 01:05pm PDT

“Democrats say mail-in re-vote in Florida looks unlikely”,0,7411675.story

Larosa   •   Mon Mar 17 2008 at 07:34pm PDT

No new primary for Florida Democrats

wstritt   •   Wed Mar 19 2008 at 11:56am PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).

More information about the possible answers

Florida Will

Michigan Will

Neither Will