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Judgment time

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When will scientists at the LHC claim definitive discovery/evidence of the Higgs Boson?




April 1 2009 - August 31 2009


Predicted: 0.91%

Actual: 0.00%

May 1 2008 - October 31 2008


Predicted: 0.96%

Actual: 0.00%

November 1 2008 - March 31 2009


Predicted: 0.51%

Actual: 0.00%

September 1 2009 - Later/Never


Predicted: 99.09%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

September 01, 2009 @ 12:00am PDT



Predictions Made


Most by: rien (23 predictions)


Sort by: Down Date

wstritt   •   Sat Jun 20 2009 at 09:45pm PDT

LHC will not be restarting until at least October 2009. Probably safe to cash out September 1 2009 – later/never at 100 at this point.

rien   •   Tue Aug 04 2009 at 01:18pm PDT

It won’t start until November, at the earliest.

rien   •   Tue Nov 25 2008 at 03:39pm PST

I’d like to point out that there is NO chance at all that the Higgs will be found before September 2009. In fact, the LHC is now shut down, and because of the magnet failure that happened in September this year it won’t start running until August 2009, at the earliest. In reality it will probably be later than that. And even if it starts in August, there will not be any collisions. So the stock “September 1 2009 – Later/Never” is 100% guaranteed to be the correct choice.

See this talk (pdf) for more details:

rien   •   Fri Dec 05 2008 at 12:35pm PST

The latest news is that repairs will be done in March 2009 and the LHC will be cooled down by the end of June 2009. Then they will do some powering tests etc so my guess is that what I wrote above is approximately correct. So no Higgs before September for sure. (It will take a long time to find it even after they start running.)

Here’s a press release form CERN:

chbigelow   •   Sat Nov 08 2008 at 02:02pm PST

Hey all… sorry for the delay in cashing out! Such a long-term market… I forgot it had passed one of the dates! Thank you to whatever admin cashed it out for me.

acollard   •   Mon Oct 20 2008 at 12:16pm PDT

Surely 3% chance of them announcing discovery by the end of October (11 days!) is still too high, I’ve sold as many as I can – seems like there are some free Inkles to be made here!

acollard   •   Sat Nov 01 2008 at 03:26am PDT

November 1st and no announcements about Higgs boson..

chbigelow   •   Tue Sep 30 2008 at 11:08pm PDT

Maybe so. This market was started long before the LHC failed to come on-line on schedule, though… so don’t judge too harshly. :) I really want to tell y’all my guess, but feel it would be unbecoming of the person running the market.

emergent   •   Mon Sep 15 2008 at 01:27pm PDT

All these options are overly optimistic. Not even in the most fortuitous scenario could the (standard model) Higgs be discovered before the latest option given (Sep 1 2009). It will take many years.


"Want to persue new trades, already made a fair gain in this."

caramelcarrot sold September 1 2009 - Later/Never at 98.61%
May 23, 2009 @ 03:26pm PDT

"this one is practically a no-brainer"

FailedatAngerMgmt bought September 1 2009 - Later/Never at 92.23%
March 16, 2009 @ 04:19am PDT

"LHC closed off until Spring"

acollard sold May 1 2008 - October 31 2008 at 5.19%
October 02, 2008 @ 01:07pm PDT

"Given that the accelerator is just starting to operate this month, and will be shut down for the winter, I feel that this time frame is way over valued when it's more likely than later dates."

Lorin7919 sold November 1 2008 - March 31 2009 at 35.10%
August 02, 2008 @ 04:56pm PDT

historical trend

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More information about the possible answers

April 1 2009 - August 31 2009

May 1 2008 - October 31 2008

November 1 2008 - March 31 2009

September 1 2009 - Later/Never