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Will Obama have a total count of 276 or more Superdelegates by mindnight EST Sunday (May 11, 2008)?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 98.47%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

May 11, 2008 @ 09:00pm PDT

Predictions Made

98

Most by: RocketJesus (12 predictions)

Discussion

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jsachs   •   Mon May 12 2008 at 04:49am PDT

The New York Times is showing Obama with 272, not 276 that the AP is reporting. The AP is crediting delegates such as Congressmen Robert Wexler, Zoe Loggren, and former Senator Tom Daschle as having committed when they have NOT, but are expected to when the primaries are finished. This is a bunch of CROCK!!. The correct answer is NO!!.

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/superdelegates/index.html

pentheus   •   Tue May 13 2008 at 05:41pm PDT

While I agree that different sources use different methods to calculate the delegate count, the conditions of the market specifically pointed out that the AP tracker would be the one that used.

I apologize if there was any confusion on that point.

Luckily, we are only playing for play money and you only lost $-1,107.58.

Perhaps I will run a market that will capitalize on the difference between delegate counts from major media organizations.

thanks,

Pentheus

Sean Robinson   •   Mon May 12 2008 at 06:35am PDT

I might as well admit at this point, now that the market has closed, that I’m the one that updates the AP tracker.

I took the job ten years ago for the express purposes of making you a loser.

jsachs   •   Mon May 12 2008 at 04:27am PDT

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

Obama has 275, the correct answer should have been NO!!!

Sean Robinson   •   Mon May 12 2008 at 04:43am PDT

The conditions of the market specifically said that the AP Delegate Tracker would be the official count.

wstritt   •   Sun May 11 2008 at 08:13am PDT

Roger...   •   Sun May 11 2008 at 10:49am PDT

It appears the timing of Midnight isn’t understood. Midnight happens at the transition from one date to the next. In 24-hour time usage, Midnight occurs on the specified date when the time of the day becomes “00:00” (hours: minutes).

This market stated, “276 by Midnight on 11-May-2008”. That time limit happened at the time transition between Saturday, the 10th of May, and Sunday the 11th of May. At that time, and well into the morning on the 11th of May, the referenced AP site reflected there were only 275 Super Delegates assigned to Mr. Obama.

zakarria   •   Sun May 11 2008 at 12:01pm PDT

I’ll agree that “midnight” is a confusing reference point, but I won’t agree that there’s one more common assumption of what it means. More importantly, the closing time of the market suggests pantheus meant Sunday night, not Saturday night, since trading is set to end at 9pm on Sunday. It makes sense to close trading a few hours before the deadline. Doesn’t make much sense to close trading 21 hours /after/ the deadline.

wstritt   •   Sun May 11 2008 at 12:18pm PDT

The Wikipedia entry for midnight would suggest there is some ambiguity in everyday life while, as Zakkaria notes, the closing time would imply that the market creator intended midnight to be 1 minute after 11:59PM on Sunday.

As further support for that position, if you click through on “Clarification here” in the market description below, it seems pretty clear that the originators of the bet underlying this market intended midnight to be the end of the day rather than the beginning.

pentheus   •   Sun May 11 2008 at 06:30pm PDT

indeed, we intended midnight tonight, even though i suppose technically that would mean monday.

Apologies, I will attempt to make crystal clear in the future.

thanks,

pentheus

Sean Robinson   •   Mon May 12 2008 at 04:45am PDT

Sorry, I should have been more specific as well. I don’t feel so bad that everyone made money on this one.

Viator and I explicitly understood that the bet meant the end of the weekend, but probably didn’t clarify that enough to everyone.

Again, sorry.

Roger...   •   Sat May 10 2008 at 09:04pm PDT

It is midnight Eastern, and the referenced tracker page we were to use as our reference control, is only showing 275. Looks like this went bust with the control saying 276 isn’t accepted by this time.

RecycledCardboardBox   •   Sat May 10 2008 at 08:11pm PDT

AP has reported that Obama has reached 276: http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/05/10/obama_within_half_a_superdelegate_of_erasing_clintons_lead/. The tracker still says 275, but it’s apparently a little bit behind the AP’s count.

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