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Judgment time

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On what day will Hillary Clinton concede?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Anything after (and including) May 15th

(closed)

Predicted: 98.61%

Actual: 100.00%

Friday, May 9th

(closed)

Predicted: 0.19%

Actual: 0.00%

Monday May 12

(closed)

Predicted: 0.25%

Actual: 0.00%

Saturday, May 10th

(closed)

Predicted: 0.35%

Actual: 0.00%

She will not concede

(closed)

Predicted: 1.39%

Actual: 0.00%

Sunday, May 11th

(closed)

Predicted: 0.20%

Actual: 0.00%

Thursday, May 8th

(closed)

Predicted: 0.34%

Actual: 0.00%

Tuesday, May 13th

(closed)

Predicted: 0.33%

Actual: 0.00%

Wednesday, May 14th

(closed)

Predicted: 0.19%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

August 25, 2008 @ 11:59pm PDT

Predictions Made

132

Most by: erik (9 predictions)

Discussion

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pentheus   •   Tue Jun 03 2008 at 10:11am PDT

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/concede

2nd definition.

Awknowledgement of defeat and cessation of campaign. The suspension of the campaign implies that it could come back at a future point in time. Thus, if I cashed out the market, and she restarted her campaign and won (theoretically possible, given that it is being decided by superdelegates), the market would be cashed out incorrectly.

Sound good?

pentheus   •   Tue Jun 03 2008 at 10:34pm PDT

NYTimes article. Relevant quote:

bq And while Mrs. Clinton reminisced about her campaign and talked of a need to unite the party, she did not concede, and indeed did not acknowledge that her rival, Senator Barack Obama, had passed the threshold of delegates needed to secure the nomination.

which is why I am not calling this market

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/04/us/politics/04clinton.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

RecycledCardboardBox   •   Mon Jun 02 2008 at 12:06pm PDT

Does suspending her campaign count as conceding?

sunidh   •   Wed May 07 2008 at 04:04pm PDT

What happens if she concedes on May 15? It seems like that is not a choice here, unless we are counting anything after May 15 as including May 15

historical trend

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More information about the possible answers

Anything after (and including) May 15th

She will not concede