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What will be the peak price for crude oil in 2008?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

$130 to $139.99

(closed)

Predicted: 0.72%

Actual: 0.00%

$140 to $149.99

(closed)

Predicted: 98.44%

Actual: 100.00%

$150 to $159.99

(closed)

Predicted: 0.29%

Actual: 0.00%

$160 to $169.99

(closed)

Predicted: 0.32%

Actual: 0.00%

$170 to $179.99

(closed)

Predicted: 0.25%

Actual: 0.00%

$180 to $189.99

(closed)

Predicted: 0.22%

Actual: 0.00%

$190 to $199.99

(closed)

Predicted: 0.22%

Actual: 0.00%

$200 or more

(closed)

Predicted: 0.22%

Actual: 0.00%

Less than $130.00

(closed)

Predicted: 0.34%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

December 31, 2008 @ 12:00am PST

Predictions Made

128 (Most: wstritt)

Discussion

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wstritt   •   Thu Jan 01 2009 at 08:05am PST
Peak crude price for WTI was $145.31 on July 3rd.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rwtcd.htm

Frod   •   Thu Jul 03 2008 at 05:56am PDT
Benchmark topped 141.06 on 1 July.
Frod   •   Sat Jun 28 2008 at 07:28am PDT
Bloomberg reports a close of $140.21; suspended 130-139.99.
wstritt   •   Thu May 29 2008 at 12:52pm PDT
Crude hit $132.99 on 5/21/08 per DOE web site. Less that $130 should cash out at $0.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm

As an aside, it may be worth using Bloomberg or some other reference source that is updated more frequently as the 5/21 data did not get posted by the DOE until 5/29 as they only seem to update thier site once a week.

Frod   •   Mon Jun 02 2008 at 07:38am PDT
I agree. Unfortunately, the DoE site is the only reputable site I’ve found that is verifiable by all Inkling traders (meaning market traders here can verify prices for past dates without a subscription). Bloomberg would be a good choice, but they only list the current spot price (no historical data that I can find); futures and contract closes are more accessible, but I thought they might be more confusing to the average Inkling trader.

Rationales

"Oil demand falling, price dropping, looks like $147 may have been the peak."

sircu5 sold $150 to $159.99 at 5.35%
August 13, 2008 @ 01:52am PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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