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Which movies from Labor Day through Christmas 2008 will rank in the U.S. top 10 in terms of opening-week U.S. box-office receipts?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

1. Twilight ($93.4M)

(closed)

Predicted: 96.24%

Actual: 100.00%

10. Bolt ($40.3M)

(closed)

Predicted: 99.09%

Actual: 100.00%

11. The Day the Earth ... ($38.5)

(closed)

Predicted: 98.37%

Actual: 0.00%

2. Quantum of Solace ($82.1M)

(closed)

Predicted: 96.74%

Actual: 100.00%

3. Madagascar 2 ($81.9M)

(closed)

Predicted: 99.02%

Actual: 100.00%

4. Marley and Me ($65.6M/6 days)

(closed)

Predicted: 34.89%

Actual: 100.00%

5. Bedtime Stories ($54.M/6 days)

(closed)

Predicted: 94.53%

Actual: 100.00%

6. Benjamin Button ($48.4M/6 days)

(closed)

Predicted: 35.90%

Actual: 100.00%

7. Four Christmases ($49.5M)

(closed)

Predicted: 99.25%

Actual: 100.00%

8. H.S. Musical 3 ($46.7M)

(closed)

Predicted: 97.90%

Actual: 100.00%

9. Valkyrie ($40.9M)

(closed)

Predicted: 2.24%

Actual: 100.00%

An American Carol

(closed)

Predicted: 0.87%

Actual: 0.00%

Appaloosa

(closed)

Predicted: 1.34%

Actual: 0.00%

Australia

(closed)

Predicted: 1.02%

Actual: 0.00%

Bangkok Dangerous

(closed)

Predicted: 5.76%

Actual: 0.00%

Beverly Hills Chihuahua

(closed)

Predicted: 1.32%

Actual: 0.00%

Blindness

(closed)

Predicted: 0.65%

Actual: 0.00%

Body of Lies

(closed)

Predicted: 3.85%

Actual: 0.00%

Burn After Reading

(closed)

Predicted: 1.02%

Actual: 0.00%

Cadillac Records

(closed)

Predicted: 0.96%

Actual: 0.00%

Changeling

(closed)

Predicted: 1.80%

Actual: 0.00%

City of Ember

(closed)

Predicted: 1.36%

Actual: 0.00%

Crossing Over

(closed)

Predicted: 3.25%

Actual: 0.00%

Delgo

(closed)

Predicted: 0.46%

Actual: 0.00%

Doubt

(closed)

Predicted: 0.93%

Actual: 0.00%

Eagle Eye ($36.9M)

(closed)

Predicted: 70.44%

Actual: 0.00%

Flash of Genius

(closed)

Predicted: 0.71%

Actual: 0.00%

Ghost Town

(closed)

Predicted: 8.35%

Actual: 0.00%

How To Lose Friends

(closed)

Predicted: 0.71%

Actual: 0.00%

Hurricane Season

(closed)

Predicted: 6.94%

Actual: 0.00%

Igor

(closed)

Predicted: 6.94%

Actual: 0.00%

Lakeview Terrace

(closed)

Predicted: 6.94%

Actual: 0.00%

Max Payne

(closed)

Predicted: 0.17%

Actual: 0.00%

Miracle at St. Anna

(closed)

Predicted: 2.11%

Actual: 0.00%

My Best Friend's Girl

(closed)

Predicted: 4.77%

Actual: 0.00%

Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist

(closed)

Predicted: 0.56%

Actual: 0.00%

Nights in Rodanthe

(closed)

Predicted: 1.81%

Actual: 0.00%

Nobel Son

(closed)

Predicted: 0.62%

Actual: 0.00%

Nothing Like the Holidays

(closed)

Predicted: 1.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Pride & Glory

(closed)

Predicted: 1.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Punisher: War Zone

(closed)

Predicted: 0.82%

Actual: 0.00%

Quarantine

(closed)

Predicted: 0.68%

Actual: 0.00%

Righteous Kill

(closed)

Predicted: 0.17%

Actual: 0.00%

RockNRolla

(closed)

Predicted: 2.66%

Actual: 0.00%

Role Models

(closed)

Predicted: 0.59%

Actual: 0.00%

Saw V

(closed)

Predicted: 22.45%

Actual: 0.00%

Seven Pounds

(closed)

Predicted: 4.48%

Actual: 0.00%

Sex Drive

(closed)

Predicted: 0.84%

Actual: 0.00%

Soul Men

(closed)

Predicted: 0.15%

Actual: 0.00%

Taken

(closed)

Predicted: 5.34%

Actual: 0.00%

The Accidental Husband

(closed)

Predicted: 6.94%

Actual: 0.00%

The Brothers Bloom

(closed)

Predicted: 4.77%

Actual: 0.00%

The Express

(closed)

Predicted: 0.68%

Actual: 0.00%

The Family That Preys

(closed)

Predicted: 0.21%

Actual: 0.00%

The Secret Life of Bees

(closed)

Predicted: 0.49%

Actual: 0.00%

The Spirit

(closed)

Predicted: 9.22%

Actual: 0.00%

The Tale of Despereaux

(closed)

Predicted: 3.49%

Actual: 0.00%

The Women

(closed)

Predicted: 2.20%

Actual: 0.00%

Transporter 3

(closed)

Predicted: 1.00%

Actual: 0.00%

W.

(closed)

Predicted: 0.16%

Actual: 0.00%

Yes Man

(closed)

Predicted: 4.32%

Actual: 0.00%

Zack and Miri Make a Porno

(closed)

Predicted: 1.80%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

December 25, 2008 @ 06:00pm PST

Predictions Made

905

Most by: wstritt (304 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

regitsoff   •   Mon Dec 29 2008 at 06:37am PST

Please close out The Day the Earth Stood still.

Thanks.

mvguy   •   Mon Dec 29 2008 at 07:08am PST

It depends on how Valkyrie does at the box office in the next few days. If the weekend studio estimates hold up and if Valkyrie gets less than $2 million on Monday, I’ll cash it out at $0 (and cash out Earth at $100). Otherwise, I’ll wait another day and see how Valkyrie does Tuesday. I’d rather wait until more numbers are in rather than take the chance of having to reverse a payout.

mvguy   •   Tue Dec 30 2008 at 04:23pm PST

It’s looking now like I’ll have to wait until the New Year’s Eve numbers are in before I can cash this out; it’s that close. Hopefully those numbers will be posted Friday.

wstritt   •   Tue Dec 30 2008 at 09:29pm PST

Looks like Valkyrie is going to overtake Earth. Who would have thought. Going to cost me a bundle. Actually, in my humble opinion, you probably ought to arbitrarily reduce Valkyrie’s box office by 10-20%. I was at the local multiplex on both Friday and Saturday and the only reason Valkyrie was getting takers was that Marley, Benjamin Button, Bedtime Stories and whatever else was showing were already sold out.

So, there they were, at the theater, didn’t think to buy ahead of time on the internet, gotta see something, all the stuff you really wanted to see sold out. Desperation buys. Mercy attendance.

Sickens me to think of what poor theater allocation on the part of theater owners is going to do to my Inkle balance. Excuse me, I have to go retch.

mvguy   •   Wed Dec 31 2008 at 07:14am PST

I did think that Marley and Me was way underrated in this market, although I never figured it would do as well as it did. (My 8-year-old son saw it yesterday, by the way, and thought it was quite good.) But the apparent success of Valkyrie is definitely the biggest surprise. Who would have thought that three movies would break the record for Christmas Day openings, and that Valkyrie wouldn’t be far behind?

wstritt   •   Wed Dec 31 2008 at 10:09am PST

I had a little Marley in the single digits but then sold it when it moved up and after looking at a chart of year over year box office performance for 4th quarter through mid-December. With all the bad economic news and big drop in retail sales, and then the ho-hum preditions on boxofficeguru.com, I was a bit worried that Christmas might be off which also led me to sell my Button shares, short Valkyrie and go long Earth.

Clearly wrong read. Even though a family trip to the movies isn’t cheap anymore, less retail spending may have helped trigger jump in box office as families looked for something else to cheer the holidays.

Garth Brewer   •   Tue Dec 02 2008 at 04:27pm PST

Just to be certain… The market closes on December 25 but some of the movies listed open on December 25. Will the first week’s opening numbers include those dollars earned frmo December 25 to January 1?

mvguy   •   Tue Dec 02 2008 at 09:33pm PST

Actually, the gross earnings through the 31st of December (except for Valkyrie, which will be through Jan. 1).

So the final cashouts will come about a week after the market closes, depending on when Box Office Mojo publishes the numbers. I probably will be able to cash out four films before Christmas, since there are six movies opening on the 25th and 26th.

mvguy   •   Mon Dec 22 2008 at 07:45am PST

The opening date of Valkyrie has been changed to Christmas, so only gross earnings through the end of the year will count for the new films this week.

wstritt   •   Wed Dec 24 2008 at 09:46am PST

Thanks for the clarification. You could probably have counted Valkyrie’s gross through 1/1 (maybe even 1/8) and it probably wouldn’t have made a difference for purposes of this market.

mvguy   •   Wed Dec 24 2008 at 02:14pm PST

Probably true. By the way, do you have any idea why Yes Man is worth so much? Its earnings (and those of all films) will be quite low today (Christmas Eve), and with all the new films on the market on Christmas, I can’t imagine it’s going to get more than $10 million in the next two days.

wstritt   •   Wed Dec 24 2008 at 04:00pm PST

I think the uncertainty of the holiday week – would Monday & Tuesday be better than normal with Thursday being well above normal kicking it above Saw V. After the actual Tuesday numbers came out, doesn’t look promising.

mvguy   •   Wed Dec 24 2008 at 06:03pm PST

Having school out and many people away from work definitely will be a factor in the coming week. My guess is that will benefit Marley and Me, which is competing with Bedtime Stories for the family audience but is getting much better reviews and may have more staying power. I still expect Bedtime Stories to win Christmas Day, however. We’ll see.

wstritt   •   Fri Dec 26 2008 at 08:53am PST

Marley beat everyone on Christmas. Must have been the cute dog picture. Mom and Dad must not have read the reviews saying the movie would “traumatize” young children. Either that or they thought the kids could use some depressing reality rather than fun fantasy given economic times.

mvguy   •   Fri Dec 26 2008 at 12:04pm PST

It’ll be interesting to see what word of mouth does during the coming few days. If M&M sees a big dropoff, I suspect it’ll be for the reason you gave.

It’ll also be interesting to see how Valkyrie does during the coming week. I think it has the potential of ending up in the top 10. Not likely, but possible.

ChloeBurns   •   Sun Sep 14 2008 at 08:26am PDT

FREE INKLE IDEA FOR THE WEEK OF 9/15

This idea is a naked short so some risk is involved, but the market is mispricing this stock and I think you can earn some inkles by shorting RocknRolla.

The entertainment press has widely reported that Alan Horn, the president of Warner Brothers, screened this film and hated it. Joel Silver’s contract requires Horn to release the film on 800 screen which qualifies it as a wide release but practically guarantees it will not earn $20M the first week. Even if Horn is wrong about the film, the studio is not going to spend the ad money needed to get this film into the top ten.

DISCLAIMER: I am short RocknRolla. The reason I am sharing this trade with you is that I have reached my self-imposed position limit. Come earn an inkle or two with this trade.

wstritt   •   Fri Sep 19 2008 at 08:37pm PDT

Better yet, short Ghost Town and/or Igor and probably get cashed out by Monday then short Blindness and cash out the next Monday then short Nick and Norahs playlist and Flash of Genius and cash out the next Monday then short The Express and Quarantine cash out and then short Rocknrolla. Some chance one of those will hit the $20MM minimum but you can probably churn shorts in this market every week for a bunch of Inkles.

mvguy   •   Sat Sep 20 2008 at 04:55pm PDT

Definitely. Or if you’re patient and have money to tie up, you could short out all the films ranked 7th through 20th (or as far down the list as you want to go) or so and make a guaranteed tidy profit by year’s end.

ChloeBurns   •   Sat Aug 30 2008 at 04:30pm PDT

Where is Burn After Reading?

mvguy   •   Mon Sep 01 2008 at 09:01am PDT

It’s on the list now. Thanks.

Rationales

"want to reduce my risk on this movie"

gcohen85 sold Zack and Miri Make a Porno at 36.36%
August 27, 2008 @ 06:18am PDT

"Brad Pitt oscar potential - plus a very strange plot should drive ticket sales"

gcohen85 bought 6. Benjamin Button ($48.4M/6 days) at 50.00%
August 20, 2008 @ 08:02pm PDT

"Angelina Jolie with Clint Eastwood - good chance"

gcohen85 bought Changeling at 52.00%
August 20, 2008 @ 08:01pm PDT

"Will Smith movie - great track record"

gcohen85 bought Seven Pounds at 49.51%
August 20, 2008 @ 08:01pm PDT

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