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For 2008, how much will renewable energy represent of the nation’s total energy consumption?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Between 7% and 8%

(closed)

Predicted: 28.40%

Actual: 100.00%

Less than 7%

(closed)

Predicted: 64.46%

Actual: 0.00%

Over 10% and up to 12%

(closed)

Predicted: 0.85%

Actual: 0.00%

Over 12%

(closed)

Predicted: 0.70%

Actual: 0.00%

Over 8% and up to 9%

(closed)

Predicted: 4.73%

Actual: 0.00%

Over 9% and up to 10%

(closed)

Predicted: 0.85%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

December 31, 2008 @ 11:59pm PST

Predictions Made

67

Most by: wstritt (13 predictions)

Discussion

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wstritt   •   Fri May 22 2009 at 06:41am PDT

I was checking the DOE website to see if they have issued the May 2009 annual report yet. They haven’t and it didn’t appear on their release schedule as best I could tell.

However, they do release monthly reports, the most recent of which http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/pdf/pages/sec1_7.pdf indicates that renewables were responsible for 7.35% (7.300/99.304) of energy usage in 2008.

Perhaps it makes sense to wait for May to end to see if there is an actual report like last year’s or any revision to the data, however given that the % is not close to a break point in the market, it seems unlikely that any further revision will change the market.

wstritt   •   Fri May 29 2009 at 10:08am PDT

May “Monthly Report” is now out with little change from prior month estimates for 2008 consumption by source. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/pdf/pages/sec1_7.pdf indicates renewables still rounded to 7.35% (7.300/99.275) for 2008.

Probably time to cash out this market.

onemike   •   Sat Dec 13 2008 at 09:36pm PST

While in the chart the US EIA reports “7%”, when looking at the underlying data it appears the answer for 2007 was actually about 6.7%, i.e. the 7% results from rounding up the result to the nearest 1 percent.

For the purposes of this market, are you going to settle based upon the picture or the data?

Rationales

"The 7% shown in the image below is rounded up from the actual data of about 6.7, don't expect too much growth"

onemike bought Less than 7% at 27.36%
December 13, 2008 @ 09:39pm PST

"I think the result will be less than 7% - I think 6.9%"

onemike sold Between 7% and 8% at 56.90%
December 13, 2008 @ 09:37pm PST

"Not going to happen"

onemike sold Over 8% and up to 9% at 20.79%
December 13, 2008 @ 09:37pm PST

"will make some progress but not a great deal..."

amsiegel bought Between 7% and 8% at 16.66%
August 21, 2008 @ 09:16pm PDT

historical trend

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