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What will the market share for Google's new browser (Chrome) be at 12/31/2008?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

More than 0.1%, less than 0.5%

(closed)

Predicted: 0.17%

Actual: 0.17%

More than 0.5%, less than 1%

(closed)

Predicted: 98.16%

Actual: 98.16%

More than 1%, less than 2%

(closed)

Predicted: 0.88%

Actual: 0.88%

More than 10%, less than 20%

(closed)

Predicted: 0.19%

Actual: 0.19%

More than 2%, less than 5%

(closed)

Predicted: 0.20%

Actual: 0.20%

More than 20%

(closed)

Predicted: 0.19%

Actual: 0.19%

More than 5%, less than 10%

(closed)

Predicted: 0.19%

Actual: 0.19%

  • refunded

Question ends

December 31, 2008 @ 11:59pm PST

Predictions Made

189

Most by: Garth Brewer (35 predictions)

Discussion

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admin (ADMIN)   •   Sat Jan 17 2009 at 07:08am PST

While not everyone agreed, I ultimately decided the best thing to do was to refund the market. I apologize to those who relied on the link I provided. At the same time I did not want to cash out the market using the wrong answer.

Garth Brewer   •   Fri Jan 16 2009 at 07:36pm PST

I have had significant resources tied up in this “stock”, shorting the wrong answers (not holding in either the .5% to 1% or 1% to 2%), for a considerable length of time. I do not like the “refund” option.

sirfussypants   •   Sat Jan 17 2009 at 06:43am PST

I still think you should cash out based upon the data you provided, again I would site the overwhleming market push on the 0.5-1% position. Clearly this was the answer deemed corect by most participants, this should be the cash out with the fewest number of people negatively effected.
Whatever your decision, I would appreciate some form of payout sooner than later, as I also have considerable funds tied up in this market.
I don’t mean to be snitty, you made an innocent mistake and we’ve all been there. Please just do what you can to fix it in a fair and speedy manner.

admin (ADMIN)   •   Fri Jan 16 2009 at 09:14am PST

On one hand I do not want to cash out the market using the wrong answer. At the same time, I understand that there was an error and that multiple people may have relied on the link to the quarterly data. Therefore, I think the only thing that makes sense is for me to refund this market and everyone will get their original investment back. I sincerely apologize for the mistake and will plan on refunding the market shortly.

admin (ADMIN)   •   Thu Jan 15 2009 at 02:58pm PST

Frod’s comment is correct and I apologize for the error. I have reversed the cash-out and will re-cash it out with the more than 1% answer being correct.

sirfussypants   •   Thu Jan 15 2009 at 04:11pm PST

I see now that Frod is correct regarding the monthly average versus the quarterly average, however the link you provided as “current market share”, and presumably your source of an answer, was for the quarterly. I also held the 0.5-1% position, and I held it based on the data that you indicated would decide the market. Clearly there’s a descrepancy, and clearly you have a difficult choice to make, but I would encourage you to cash out based upon the data you provided despite the flaw in the precision of that data. Judging from the ending values of the stock, the vast majority of participants were similarly confused by the markets design.

Frod   •   Thu Jan 15 2009 at 02:24pm PST

Shouldn’t have this paid out “more than 1%”?

The Q4 2008 market share was indeed 0.87%, but that’s averaged over 3 months.

The December 2008 share was 1.04%:http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=0&qpmr=100&qpdt=1&qpct=3&qpcal=1&qptimeframe=M&qpsp=119

Since the question said “at year end 2008”, I would expect that to mean “as of the end of December 31”. Since that’s not available, the average for December 1 to December 31 seems more correct than the average from September 1 to December 31.

(Disclaimer: I had a position in and did get paid out at 100 for “more than 0.5%, less than 1%”, but it seems wrong.)

Rationales

"I did not think the iPhone would do as well as Apple thought, so while I still don't think there's a chance in hell that Chrome will get 20% share by 12/31, I'm not sure whether I'm really 97% reliable on this question."

Benja bought More than 20% at 2.97%
September 27, 2008 @ 07:08am PDT

"Its gains will largely be from Firefox."

char bought More than 5%, less than 10% at 6.10%
September 08, 2008 @ 11:29am PDT

"This browser rocks (I'm making this prediction within Chrome)!"

mikeprovance bought More than 2%, less than 5% at 49.50%
September 03, 2008 @ 04:28pm PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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