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When will the Pakatan Rakyat be the ruling government of Malaysia?

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PREDICTED DATE

TODAY

Date of change Malaysia Gov

(closed)

Predicted: September 08, 2015

Actual: September 08, 2015

  • completed

Question ends

September 08, 2015 @ 10:57pm PDT

Predictions Made

438

Most by: job (206 predictions)

Discussion

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wstritt   •   Sat Sep 19 2015 at 03:14pm PDT

Thanks to the Admins for cashing out this market.

GeneH   •   Fri Jul 10 2015 at 04:10pm PDT

Great! I thank both of you for that. Keeps me from making an expensive mistake.

I appreciate it.

wstritt   •   Sun May 05 2013 at 02:07pm PDT

Ruling BN coalition appears to have won today’s election leaving the Pakatan Rakyat in opposition for a few more years. Presumably market will eventually cash out at and on September 8, 2015 unless government unexpectedly falls before then or, I suppose, if the PR falls apart in the meantime.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/05/05/181387658/malaysia-entrenched-coalition-wins-13th-straight-election

GeneH   •   Fri Jul 10 2015 at 03:24pm PDT

It appears the PR has broken up and has ceased to exist (link below).

As events could change in the meantime and it is not a sure thing, I would like to participate in this question BUT I am new at Inkling and have not participated in these types of betting questions.

If you would not mind giving a newbie some advice, how would I bet this one if I believe the negative of this question—-They will not be in power by the closing date.

Would I “SELL”, as I think I should? I tried that as a test and it moved the date up. I do not understand what that means.

At the risk of tipping my hand, I would appreciate any assistance. THANKS!

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/malaysia-s-opposition/1918690.html

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/pakatan-rakyat-is-dead-says-pkr-chief-wan-azizah

onedave   •   Fri Jul 10 2015 at 04:01pm PDT

Normally, in this type of market, you buy shares if expect the event to happen after the current prediction date. You sell shares if you think the event will occur before the current prediction date. Buying moves the date later; selling moves the date earlier.

The admin will need to clarify when cash out occurs for “never.”

wstritt   •   Fri Jul 10 2015 at 03:52pm PDT

I believe the working assumption is that the market will cash out on the 9/8/15 closing date at a price of 9/8/15 where the stock currently sits so there is no point in trading here. This is the problem in these types of date markets where the answer may be “never” – if you keep extending the closing date (as has been done in a couple of cases) there will never be a cashout and everyone is just wasting inkles. In this case, it has been pretty clear after Anwar failed to get enough votes to switch sides in 2008 and the Rakyat failed to sweep the to victory in the 2009 elections.

The market creator, who appears to be long gone, probabaly thought there was a decent chance it would happen by 2009 elections but set the closing date to cover a couple of election cycles. Hopefully the admins will put this one out of its misery as scheduled.

I imagine it is questions like this that led to the new rolling date markets to encourage playing by providing potential for near term gratification even though final answer could turn out to be years away.

wstritt   •   Mon Feb 09 2009 at 02:58pm PST

Out of curiousity, how will you cash out this market if the Pakatan Rakyat breaks up (as suggested here) and the answer is “never”? The then current trading price? Or will you leave market open until 9/8/15 close date in case it dissolves but is reconstituted before then?

sultaniskandarshah   •   Tue Sep 09 2008 at 08:12pm PDT

The Star Article has an update on a delay announcement of the take over in government

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Date of change Malaysia Gov