Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

What will the voter turnout be for the presidential election in November?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

50%, up to 52%

(closed)

Predicted: 0.81%

Actual: 0.00%

Less than 50%

(closed)

Predicted: 0.80%

Actual: 0.00%

More than 52%, up to 54%

(closed)

Predicted: 1.82%

Actual: 0.00%

More than 54%, up to 56%

(closed)

Predicted: 3.66%

Actual: 0.00%

More than 56%, up to 58%

(closed)

Predicted: 6.67%

Actual: 0.00%

More than 58%, up to 60%

(closed)

Predicted: 9.84%

Actual: 0.00%

More than 60%, up to 62%

(closed)

Predicted: 12.66%

Actual: 100.00%

More than 62%, up to 64%

(closed)

Predicted: 25.50%

Actual: 0.00%

More than 64%, up to 66%

(closed)

Predicted: 24.50%

Actual: 0.00%

More than 66%, up to 68%

(closed)

Predicted: 8.83%

Actual: 0.00%

More than 68%, up to 70%

(closed)

Predicted: 1.90%

Actual: 0.00%

More than 70%

(closed)

Predicted: 2.95%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 03, 2008 @ 11:59pm PST

Predictions Made

229

Most by: AxmxZ (93 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

inklingtrader   •   Sat Dec 13 2008 at 10:31am PST

Cashed this out based on the wikipedia mention of 61% turnout.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election

AxmxZ   •   Thu Dec 11 2008 at 05:29pm PST

So, when is this getting cashed out, exactly? I think they’ve counted the votes to within several decimal points.

admin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Nov 11 2008 at 08:41am PST

I know that election day has come and gone. I also realize there are some early projections as to the voter turnout percentage. But the final results are still not in. As mentioned when the market was first posted, final determination would be made when enough accurate data is available. I hope that will be soon.

rien   •   Sun Nov 09 2008 at 07:54pm PST

Acording to http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15422.html :

“Between 60.7 percent and 61.7 percent of the 208.3 million eligible voters cast ballots this year, compared with 60.6 percent of those eligible in 2004, according to a voting analysis by American University political scientist Curtis Gans, an authority on voter turnout.”

Diesel   •   Wed Nov 05 2008 at 10:32am PST

Voter turnout best in generations, maybe a century
By SETH BORENSTEIN – 10 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — America voted in record numbers, standing in lines that snaked around blocks and in some places in pouring rain. Voters who queued up Tuesday and the millions who balloted early propelled 2008 to what one expert said was the highest turnout in a century.

It looks like 136.6 million Americans will have voted for president this election, based on 88 percent of the country’s precincts tallied and projections for absentee ballots, said Michael McDonald of George Mason University. Using his methods, that would give 2008 a 64.1 percent turnout rate.

Diesel   •   Tue Oct 28 2008 at 06:39am PDT

Diesel   •   Thu Oct 23 2008 at 12:02pm PDT

Rationales

"this is pure profit taking"

fester986 sold More than 58%, up to 60% at 13.34%
October 02, 2008 @ 10:15am PDT

"Turnouts tend to be high when charismatic candidates are running against strong opposition"

char bought More than 60%, up to 62% at 6.70%
September 21, 2008 @ 01:54pm PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader