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How many states will align with a different political party in the 2008 U.S. presidential election than they did in 2004?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Eight

(closed)

Predicted: 28.43%

Actual: 0.00%

Five

(closed)

Predicted: 2.73%

Actual: 0.00%

Four

(closed)

Predicted: 1.23%

Actual: 0.00%

Nine or more

(closed)

Predicted: 34.03%

Actual: 100.00%

One

(closed)

Predicted: 1.23%

Actual: 0.00%

Seven

(closed)

Predicted: 26.77%

Actual: 0.00%

Six

(closed)

Predicted: 3.34%

Actual: 0.00%

Three

(closed)

Predicted: 1.23%

Actual: 0.00%

Two

(closed)

Predicted: 0.67%

Actual: 0.00%

Zero

(closed)

Predicted: 0.31%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 04, 2008 @ 04:44pm PST

Predictions Made

82

Most by: AxmxZ (27 predictions)

Discussion

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mvguy   •   Wed Nov 05 2008 at 09:06am PST

As of this writing, eight states have switched from red to blue: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana and Virginia.

States that remain in play are Missouri and North Carolina. If Obama wins either one of them (or both), the market will cash out at “nine or more.” If McCain wins both of those states, the market will cash out at “eight.”

Chairman Meow   •   Thu Oct 23 2008 at 07:35am PDT

how will you handle NE and ME if they are split?

mvguy   •   Wed Oct 29 2008 at 08:03am PDT

I’ll count which candidate gets the at-large electoral votes in that state, or the majority of electoral votes (which would be the same thing).

historical trend

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