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Will CNN Project a Winner of the Presidential Election within 1 hour after the polls close in California?






Predicted: 91.53%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 04, 2008 @ 09:59am PST

Predictions Made


Most by: AxmxZ (9 predictions)


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coolstuff1776   •   Sun Nov 02 2008 at 08:51pm PST

yes, anytime before 1 hour after polls close is a win. So if CNN calls a winner anytime before 11pm pst, its a win.

ChloeBurns   •   Mon Nov 03 2008 at 06:25am PST

I am more confused than before. Polls are scheduled to close in California at 8:00pm PST (11:00pm EST). One hour after closing is 9:00pm PST (12:00 midnight EST) so this contract will pay $100 if CNN calls the election before 9:00pm local California time?

DISCLOSURE: I am relying on this interpretation to arb between this market and this one.

mvguy   •   Mon Nov 03 2008 at 05:58am PST


wstritt   •   Sun Nov 02 2008 at 03:03pm PST

So if it is an Obama landslide and they call the election before California’s polls close, this will pay out at 0?

mvguy   •   Sun Nov 02 2008 at 03:37pm PST

I have the same question. I would assume the payout would be $100 if the call is made before 8 p.m. PST, but my assumptions have been wrong before.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).