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Will CNN Project a Winner of the Presidential Election within 1 hour after the polls close in California?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 91.53%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 04, 2008 @ 09:59am PST

Predictions Made

39

Most by: AxmxZ (9 predictions)

Discussion

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coolstuff1776   •   Sun Nov 02 2008 at 08:51pm PST

yes, anytime before 1 hour after polls close is a win. So if CNN calls a winner anytime before 11pm pst, its a win.

ChloeBurns   •   Mon Nov 03 2008 at 06:25am PST

I am more confused than before. Polls are scheduled to close in California at 8:00pm PST (11:00pm EST). One hour after closing is 9:00pm PST (12:00 midnight EST) so this contract will pay $100 if CNN calls the election before 9:00pm local California time?

DISCLOSURE: I am relying on this interpretation to arb between this market and this one.

mvguy   •   Mon Nov 03 2008 at 05:58am PST

Thanks.

wstritt   •   Sun Nov 02 2008 at 03:03pm PST

So if it is an Obama landslide and they call the election before California’s polls close, this will pay out at 0?

mvguy   •   Sun Nov 02 2008 at 03:37pm PST

I have the same question. I would assume the payout would be $100 if the call is made before 8 p.m. PST, but my assumptions have been wrong before.

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