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When will President-elect Obama appoint his first Cabinet Secretary?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

1/1/09 - 1/7/09

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

1/8/09 - 1/14/09

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

11/13/08 - 11/19/08

(closed)

Predicted: 2.15%

Actual: 0.00%

11/20/08 - 11/26/08

(closed)

Predicted: 90.10%

Actual: 100.00%

11/27/08 - 12/3/08

(closed)

Predicted: 9.03%

Actual: 0.00%

11/6/08 - 11/12/08

(closed)

Predicted: 0.09%

Actual: 0.00%

12/11/08 -12/17/08

(closed)

Predicted: 0.11%

Actual: 0.00%

12/18/08 - 12/24/08

(closed)

Predicted: 0.11%

Actual: 0.00%

12/25/08 - 12/31/08

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

12/4/08 - 12/10/08

(closed)

Predicted: 0.55%

Actual: 0.00%

On or after 1/15/09

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

On or before 11/5/08

(closed)

Predicted: 2.85%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

January 14, 2009 @ 09:00pm PST

Predictions Made

407

Most by: MFWinAlford (138 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

ChloeBurns   •   Mon Nov 24 2008 at 03:44am PST

Trading in this market is suspended until after today’s press conference.

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Nov 23 2008 at 08:16pm PST

“This market will close when President-elect Obama’s transition office formally announces the appointment of one or more cabinet secretaries. Congressional action is not needed.”

Is President-elect Obama considered a member of the “transition office”? Word is that he will hold a press conference to make an announcement of at least one Cabinet officer. Does that count?

jahm   •   Tue Nov 18 2008 at 08:30pm PST

“From NBC’s Pete Williams
President-elect Obama has offered Eric Holder the position of attorney general, and Holder has accepted it, according to sources involved in the process. The formal announcement has been held up while Obama transition team members ran the idea past key senators. And Obama wanted to announce members of his financial team first — Treasury Secretary and so on.”

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/18/1679624.aspx

ChloeBurns   •   Wed Nov 19 2008 at 06:40am PST

Only an announcement from President-elect Obama’s transition office or from the appointee will be considered final.

BillyCat   •   Tue Nov 18 2008 at 06:23pm PST

Does Obama simply have to announce his choice, or does it have to go through congressional approval for a choice to count?

ChloeBurns   •   Wed Nov 19 2008 at 07:57am PST

This market will close when President-elect Obama’s transition office formally announces the appointment of one or more cabinet secretaries. Congressional action is not needed.

I think it extraordinarily unlikely, but if Obama announces an appointment and the offer is declined, I will reopen the market. In addition, if an appointee issues a statement that he or she is accepting a cabinet post before an offer is formally extended, this market will close.

fester986   •   Wed Nov 12 2008 at 01:09pm PST

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/11/11/no_cabinet_appointments_soon.html

Remember, with the exception of George HW Bush, no President elects announced their first cabinet appointments before Thanksgiving….

fester986   •   Mon Nov 10 2008 at 09:38am PST

Via Talking Points Memo
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/11/no_obama_cabinet_announcements.php

No appointments expected this week - sweet - I shorted this week :)

simon_   •   Wed Nov 05 2008 at 07:55pm PST

is chief of staff a “cabinet secretary”?

ChloeBurns   •   Thu Nov 06 2008 at 03:50am PST

No. This market includes the secretaries of executive-branch departments only. It does include the Attorney General.

historical trend

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