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Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.


Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.


Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

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How many Republicans will be included in Obama's Cabinet?






Predicted: 3.86%

Actual: 0.00%



Predicted: 0.30%

Actual: 0.00%



Predicted: 98.76%

Actual: 100.00%



Predicted: 0.76%

Actual: 0.00%

4 or more


Predicted: 0.18%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

April 29, 2009 @ 09:00pm PDT

Predictions Made


Most by: AxmxZ (69 predictions)


Sort by: Down Date

AxmxZ   •   Mon Apr 06 2009 at 07:28am PDT

Let’s see, the only position left is Health, and even if a Republican is picked for that, that will only make 3. Might as well cash out 4 now.

ChloeBurns   •   Mon Apr 06 2009 at 07:03pm PDT

As it states in the market information, I intend to keep this market open until the completion of President Obama’s first 100 days in office. Who knows? Someone might resign. Though at ~12% the market is, I think, mispricing the probability of such an event.

AxmxZ   •   Mon Apr 06 2009 at 07:25am PDT

When’s this getting cashed out?

BillyCat   •   Thu Feb 12 2009 at 02:32pm PST

Oh you have to be kidding me, Senator Gregg! Ugh, this one hit me hard.

jmassingill   •   Thu Jan 15 2009 at 01:25pm PST

Right now, I count one Republican, Gates. Although, he’s actually a registered independent.

ChloeBurns   •   Thu Jan 15 2009 at 02:22pm PST

Ray LaHood would be the second Republican if he is confirmed as Transportation Secretary.

ChloeBurns   •   Fri Nov 21 2008 at 06:35am PST

Please note that I do not intend to include Administrator of the EPA, Director of the OMB, Director of National Drug Control Policy, or U.S. Trade Representative in this count. Secretaries — and Attorneys General — only.

historical trend

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