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How long will Hillary Clinton last as Secretary of State?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

2010

(closed)

Predicted: 0.15%

Actual: 0.00%

2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.27%

Actual: 0.00%

2012

(closed)

Predicted: 0.12%

Actual: 0.00%

2013

(closed)

Predicted: 99.88%

Actual: 100.00%

Confirmation through June 2009

(closed)

Predicted: 1.09%

Actual: 0.00%

July through December 2009

(closed)

Predicted: 3.55%

Actual: 0.00%

Will not be confirmed

(closed)

Predicted: 2.19%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

January 22, 2013 @ 06:33pm PST

Predictions Made

377

Most by: job (115 predictions)

Discussion

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SneakyPete   •   Mon Mar 28 2011 at 10:50am PDT

It appears, that perhaps we will be seeing her leaving sooner rather than later, with the international crisis’s taking place and increased impact being felt on President Obama’s administation.

wstritt   •   Wed Feb 11 2009 at 05:46am PST

Hillary’s incredible, shrinking role

Of course, that’s just Dick Morris talking…

sbalen   •   Wed Dec 03 2008 at 06:50am PST

lhuiz   •   Wed Dec 03 2008 at 06:50am PST

There seems to be doubt about whether or not Clinton can be appointed to SOS, since she was a member of the Senate when the pay for SOS was increased, which makes it illegal for her to become SOS. See http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/02/could-clinton-be-ineligib_n_147917.html.

Rationales

"I know"

$Kaet5ch bought 2012 at 2.09%
November 14, 2012 @ 05:53pm PST

"She'll be vice-president in 2013/"

ecotax bought 2012 at 38.61%
January 10, 2012 @ 10:55am PST

"Preisdent Obama will probably want a new team, if he wins election, for his second term."

SneakyPete bought 2013 at 39.78%
May 07, 2011 @ 10:08am PDT

"She seems to be doing just fine."

ecotax bought 2013 at 35.29%
May 05, 2011 @ 01:29pm PDT

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historical trend

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More information about the possible answers

2010

2011

2012

2013

Confirmation through June 2009

July through December 2009

Will not be confirmed