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Who will be appointed to fill Hillary Clinton's Senate seat when she becomes secretary of state?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Adolfo Carrion Jr.

(closed)

Predicted: 0.03%

Actual: 0.00%

Andrew Cuomo

(closed)

Predicted: 28.60%

Actual: 0.00%

Bill Clinton

(closed)

Predicted: 0.31%

Actual: 0.00%

Brian Higgins

(closed)

Predicted: 1.87%

Actual: 0.00%

Byron Brown

(closed)

Predicted: 2.80%

Actual: 0.00%

Caroline Kennedy

(closed)

Predicted: 0.56%

Actual: 0.00%

Christine Quinn

(closed)

Predicted: 0.25%

Actual: 0.00%

David Paterson

(closed)

Predicted: 0.06%

Actual: 0.00%

Gary Ackerman

(closed)

Predicted: 0.05%

Actual: 0.00%

Greg Meeks

(closed)

Predicted: 0.27%

Actual: 0.00%

Jerrold Nadler

(closed)

Predicted: 0.07%

Actual: 0.00%

Kirsten Gillibrand

(closed)

Predicted: 42.68%

Actual: 100.00%

Nita M. Lowey

(closed)

Predicted: 0.06%

Actual: 0.00%

Nydia Velasquez

(closed)

Predicted: 0.26%

Actual: 0.00%

Other

(closed)

Predicted: 18.49%

Actual: 0.00%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

(closed)

Predicted: 1.03%

Actual: 0.00%

She does not become secretary of state

(closed)

Predicted: 0.29%

Actual: 0.00%

Steve Israel

(closed)

Predicted: 2.29%

Actual: 0.00%

Thomas Suozzi

(closed)

Predicted: 0.20%

Actual: 0.00%

Tom DiNapoli

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

January 23, 2009 @ 04:00am PST

Predictions Made

476

Most by: MFWinAlford (97 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

mvguy   •   Thu Jan 22 2009 at 04:14pm PST

WPIX-TV is saying Gillibrand has been chosen, so I’ve suspended trading.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Jan 22 2009 at 05:20pm PST

Good call! I hope that’s right, since I had decided to go with her and Bobby. I make money if either of them is chosen, but lose money on anyone else.

In fact, I had bid Kirsten up to $72 with my buys, and note that she finished at $42 when you closed trading. But all the others seem to have gained, so that suggests to me that someone took a huge short position against me. Maybe they know something, but I hope not!

We’ll know soon enough!

http://www.wpix.com/landing/?Confirmed-Kirsten-Gillibrand-Chosen-to-F=1&blockID=193155&feedID=1404

mvguy   •   Thu Jan 22 2009 at 05:27pm PST

It’s looking very good for you at the moment.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Jan 22 2009 at 05:33pm PST

Yup. Watch out! I’m only 3 ranks behind you. Pretty soon, I hope to be breathing down your neck…

;)

mvguy   •   Thu Jan 22 2009 at 07:26pm PST

You may catch up with me sooner than you think. My total has risen very slowly since the political season ended.

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Jan 24 2009 at 03:18am PST

LOL! Well, make that 2 ranks behind you now, but the hill gets a lot steeper here. If you look at the top 10, there’s a clear logarithmic effect here — Gibrat’s Law of Proportionate Effect is in force. Still, I’ll keep trying, because it’s fun. I like your gasoline markets, and I’m still hoping to profit from a Frankin win, but that is taking like forever! I’m also playing some unemployment rate markets and the Oscars, but it seems profit opportunities there are limited…

mvguy   •   Sat Jan 24 2009 at 04:47pm PST

And the gap between you and me is smaller than the gap you have between me and #10.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Jan 22 2009 at 04:14am PST

Not sure why you’ve suspended the market. I can understand your desire to keep it a “prediction” market, but this NYT story makes it sound like the Guv was thrown for a loop and won’t make a decision for several days. I vote to reopen it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/22/nyregion/22caroline.html?_r=1&hp

mvguy   •   Thu Jan 22 2009 at 05:25am PST

Consider it done, for now.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Jan 22 2009 at 05:55am PST

Thanks, I guess! A chance to waste more inkles, I suppose.

Who knows? Maybe I’ll get lucky! I bet on Bobby Kennedy — he declined to be considered when Carolyn made her intentions known, but he’d be perfect, imho, tho I haven’t heard his name mentioned at all in any of the news reports…

mvguy   •   Thu Jan 22 2009 at 08:05am PST

Well, you never know. There are a couple of the candidates (Nadler and Brown are two of them) on the bottom of the pile who I think have a shot at it. I don’t think it will be Cuomo; the governor has given too many hints that he may pick an unexpected name. I’ll know soon if I’m right or not.

In any case, here’s what I’m doing with the market: Since it looks now like Paterson will make his announcement at noon EST tomorrow, I’m going to permanently close the market at 7 a.m. EST. I’ll suspend the trading if it looks like word of the pick is leaking out or is about to.

BillyCat   •   Thu Jan 22 2009 at 03:35pm PST

This was definitely one of the more exciting markets I’ve participated in. I wish I could put more money into it, but at this point, who knows what Paterson will do. It’s as though he’s taken classes on how to be mysterious from Steve Jobs. Le sigh.

Good call on closing it at 7:00 tonight to preserve the prediction aspect of the market. Thanks!

mvguy   •   Thu Jan 22 2009 at 04:09pm PST

Actually, I’m planning 7 a.m. tomorrow, although that’s subject to change. I do want to keep this a prediction market, although if I cut things too close I won’t succeed.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Jan 22 2009 at 03:12pm PST

Very fair. I just heard on the radio that a news conference is scheduled for noon Friday.

The reporter was asking some political consultant for a “short list” and he named a bunch of names, with Gillibrand at the top, but not including Cuomo!

Whatever the outcome, thanks for a fun market!

mvguy   •   Wed Jan 21 2009 at 08:04pm PST

This is strange. As of this moment, the New York Times is saying Kennedy is out of the race, but the Associated Press is saying she’s in. We’ll see. It makes for an interesting market, anyway.

mvguy   •   Wed Jan 21 2009 at 10:28pm PST

It’s official now. She has withdrawn.

BillyCat   •   Wed Jan 21 2009 at 05:24pm PST

Blast! Why did I sell all of my Cuomo shares!

*I say this because I really think he’ll get the appointment. ;)

mvguy   •   Sun Jan 18 2009 at 01:32pm PST

The governor said in an interview Sunday that he expected to announce his decision within a very few days, so I’ve changed the closing time of the market accordingly. I may change it at any time (or suspend trading) as news developments warrant. I’m trying to avoid having word of the choice leak out while the market is open, so if I err it will be on the side of keeping this a predictive market rather than a cash-in-if-you’re-the-first-to-get-the-news market.

wstritt   •   Tue Jan 20 2009 at 06:14pm PST

You’re no fun. :-)

mvguy   •   Tue Jan 20 2009 at 07:15pm PST

Come on, you’ve got to take some risk sometime. :)

grandmasterfunky   •   Sat Dec 06 2008 at 08:50pm PST

so would ‘she does not become sec of state’ pay out if she is not confirmed by the end of the market 2/1/9?

mvguy   •   Sun Dec 07 2008 at 03:56pm PST

If Clinton’s nomination hasn’t been confirmed by the Senate by Feb. 1, I’ll extend the closing date of the market (unless, of course, the Senate rejects her nomination).

sbalen   •   Wed Dec 03 2008 at 06:33am PST

mvguy   •   Wed Dec 03 2008 at 12:42pm PST

That’s definitely an interesting point. It’s somewhat similar to questions that have been raised about George Romney (Mitt Romney’s father) and John McCain when they were presidential candidates; a very strict reading of the Constitution might suggest that they were ineligible to be president because they were born outside the United States.

This clause has come up with presidential appointments before (most notably with William Saxbe in 1973). But according to what I’ve been able to find, this specific issue has never reached the federal court appellate level. It’s definitely an interesting legal situation, although I think the chances that Clinton won’t become SoS are quite remote. (But I’ve been wrong before.) Certainly, her appointment (if made with the proviso that she serves at a pre-2006 pay level) doesn’t violate the spirit of the law.

mvguy   •   Mon Dec 22 2008 at 02:13pm PST

That proviso has now been made. In its waning days, Congress passed a bill to reduce the secretary of state’s pay, and Bush signed it in a spirit of cooperation with the incoming president.

Rationales

"the kennedys, clintons, and bush-ies run the world, dont u forget it"

gphunk bought Caroline Kennedy at 70.51%
December 06, 2008 @ 06:10am PST

"Clinton is not eligible for SOS (huffingtonpost.com)"

lhuiz bought She does not become secretary of state at 11.48%
December 03, 2008 @ 06:40am PST

historical trend

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