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How much will people in Massachusetts be ticketed for possesion of majiuana in 2009?

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PREDICTED VALUE

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Dollars

(closed)

Predicted: 86,750.00

Actual: 140,000.00

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December 31, 2009 @ 11:59pm PST

Predictions Made

104

Most by: wstritt (38 predictions)

Discussion

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Garth Brewer   •   Fri Feb 12 2010 at 06:21pm PST

Reports from cities, towns and villages will start coming in soon. One for Beverly below indicates there were 26 citations for marijuana possession in that jurisdiction.

http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache:0BbWJFfajIkJ:www.beverlyma.gov/public_documents/beverlyma_bboard/0268C80C-000F8513+%22citations+in+2009%22+marijuana+massachusetts&cd=6&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ca

wstritt   •   Wed Jan 13 2010 at 04:54pm PST

Hi Sir Fussy

I know I am one of the biggest whiners for fast cash out but you may have cashed out a bit too quick given what else might come in. For what it is worth, I did some rough estimates on what the final total might be by extrapolating the partial year data to full year for the reporting towns/cities and then estimated what the non-reporting areas might have done. Here is what I came up with:

There were actually 1332 reported tickets (Mansfield was actually 177 rather than 280 – the 177 being a subset of the 280) reported by towns totaling 1,325,476 in population. Annualizing that number for months covered by the reporting and controlling for the 1 day Hempfest total of 136, the total would have been 2110 on annualized basis for the reporting town/cities.

Towns/cities not reporting totaled 5,172,491 in population. Assuming they issued tickets at the same rate as the rest of the state, total tickets could be as high as 9,786. Assuming the non-reported towns issued tickets at the lowest rate per capita of the reporting towns, total tickets would be 3,806.

Separately, I e-mailed the producer of this report to see if they had done a follow up on total tickets issued. She very nicely replied that she didn’t have a total for the state but that the Boston PD has issued a total of 882 citations in 2009 which is ~2.5% below my extrapolated estimate of 902 for Boston.

In the scheme of things, I don’t mind the early payout. On the other hand, including full year of Boston, the “reported” number is 1663 (including the other adjustments). Also, if even the bottom end of my extrapolation is correct, I believe there would have been a new number 1 on the list of Inkling Leaders. Inevitable anyway but would have been a Biblical one day move.

Cheers

Bill

Garth Brewer   •   Fri Jan 08 2010 at 11:40pm PST

http://www.wickedlocal.com/southborough/news/x581522362/Southborough-voters-to-consider-marijuana-bylaw

The article above indicates there were 15 citations in southborough as of early September.

http://www.wickedlocal.com/needham/news/police_and_fire/x1136809472/Marijuana-citations-on-Needhams-Fisher-Street

This talks of three tickets issued in December in Needham.

grandmasterfunky   •   Thu Jan 07 2010 at 04:45pm PST

maybe im misunderstanding the mechanics of this market. its my understanding that if its over 867.5, then the market will payout at $867.50 per share. is someone saying that it could pay off at $1414.00 per share or more? Then by all means take your time, fussypants!

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Jan 07 2010 at 04:58pm PST

I agree, based on all the discussion, that the payout should be based on the number of tickets, despite the original description. Not sure where you got your first impression (that the market would pay out at its closing price — that would be odd). Problem is, no one seems to have heard from SirF for a year or so…

wstritt   •   Thu Jan 07 2010 at 04:59pm PST

That and we may not get an official total from anyone leaving us to piece together what we can.

wstritt   •   Thu Jan 07 2010 at 04:57pm PST

As I understand it, the market should pay out at the actual number of tickets because it is scaled by the $100 per ticket (note how the “TIP” near the stock price is phrased) so, at this point, 1417 inkles. If the actual total turns out to be 2500 tickets (which extrapolating from what we know is not out of the question), the market should pay off at 2500 inkles.

grandmasterfunky   •   Thu Jan 07 2010 at 04:35pm PST

The market asks how many people would be ticketed. Doesn’t matter if they were paid or how much they were for. The line is 867.5. We have evidence that there have been at least 1414 tickets written. So I think it’s pretty safe to cash out.

The concern here is that the market maker has been UA for nearly a year.

wstritt   •   Thu Jan 07 2010 at 04:22pm PST

Towns not previously heard from totals through April 28, 2009

Plymouth 26
Marshfiled 13
Weymouth 16
Whitman 12

That brings total to at least 1417.

http://www.patriotledger.com/news/cops_and_courts/x735083530/WASTED-Towns-aren-t-collecting-money-from-marijuana-possession-fines

Interestingly, Hingham was at 13 at that point with a total year of 33 while Braintree was at 20 with a total of 28 through the end of June from Garth’s July 16 post. That does suggest that there are a whole bunch more to go.

wstritt   •   Thu Jan 07 2010 at 04:00pm PST

33 in Hingham for 2009 so now up to at least 1349. I don’t think the “first ticket” issued in Springfield has been counted yet which would bring total to 1350.

http://www.wickedlocal.com/hingham/news/police_and_fire/x1409364430/HINGHAM-POLICE-33-civil-citations-for-marijuana-in-2009

Knowing the final total may take some time. Per Wikipedia, there are ~350 “towns and cities” in Massachusetts. Presumably, all of them may have issued tickets for marijuana possession with news reports noted in comments to date from only 18 of them. That leaves 332 to hear from including a couple of the states larger cities (Worcester and Springfield). Of the 18 reporting cities/towns, only Hingham has reported the total year number.

In that context, I would think the final number will be well in excess of 1350 so probably worth the wait to see if more come out. I would also think that someone is doing a follow-up “how many tickets were issued” story though perhaps not.

An alternative, I suppose, would be to cash out the market at the known balance on some date with a subsequent “un-cashout” and revised cash out if more details emerge (i.e. a partial cash out on what is known with a final settling up).

Another alternative might be a market participant with some time on their hands could start calling around to the various local police departments or local newspapers and compile an Inkling summary to accelerate the process.

Garth Brewer   •   Wed Jan 06 2010 at 11:36pm PST

I think that this market should not be paid out until there is some time for reports to be made about how many tickets were issued by community. I don’t think there has been enough time passed for that to happen since the end of they year. There might even be a report at some time as to how many tickets were issued in the whole state of Massachusetts. I think at least a month is probably necessary. All we know is that there will be at least 1,316 tickets.

grandmasterfunky   •   Wed Jan 06 2010 at 10:35pm PST

i see sirfussypants hasnt commented since jan 09. are you out there fussy? if so, will you be paying out soon?

Garth Brewer   •   Sat Dec 05 2009 at 07:10am PST

http://www.lowellsun.com/ci_13933993?IADID=Search-www.lowellsun.com-www.lowellsun.com

A couple more places reporting:

Lowell – 52
Wilmington – 47 (33 paid)

Total up to at least 1,316

Garth Brewer   •   Thu Sep 24 2009 at 05:58am PDT

http://www.thesunchronicle.com/articles/2009/09/19/news/6127297.txt#blogcomments

Some smaller places than Boston reporting:

Mansfield 280 (collected, not ticketed)
Foxboro 110 (collected, not ticketed)
Attleboro 50 (ticketed)
North Attleboro 24 (collected, not ticketed)
Norton 16 (collected, not ticketed)
Wrentham 16 (collected, not ticketed)
Norfolk 18 (ticketed)
Plainville 8 (ticketed)

I am not great at Massachusetts so not sure if some of these reports are overlapping others reported before. Sounds like different names. If these are different, there are another 522 more tickets accounted for.

wstritt   •   Mon Nov 02 2009 at 09:04pm PST

8 more in Foxboro last week.

http://www.thesunchronicle.com/articles/2009/10/31/news/6358552.txt

Running total now appears to be at least 1217

Garth Brewer   •   Thu Jul 16 2009 at 04:44pm PDT

There is mention of 476 tickets (basically in the first half of the year) being issued in three jurisdictions in the following citation. While this includes Boston, there are lots of smaller places in Massachusetts.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/regional/view.bg?&articleid=1185193&format=&page=1&listingType=Loc#articleFull

wstritt   •   Fri Aug 07 2009 at 02:22pm PDT

Boston 415, Braintree 28, Brookline 33 per above. Walpole two dozen or so. Georgetown 12. Palmer 20 through June

Up to at least 532 ticket. At $100 a pop, that would be at least $53,200 in tickets issued.

wstritt   •   Thu Aug 27 2009 at 09:11pm PDT

Lynn 19

Up to 551.

wstritt   •   Sat Sep 19 2009 at 02:12pm PDT

If the 100 tickets by midafternoon estimate from today’s Boston Freedom Rally is accurate, we should be up to 651.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2009/09/a_new_twist_at.html

Update: 136 tickets handed out bringing running documented total to 687.

http://news.bostonherald.com/news/regional/view/20090920boston_hempfest_grows_with_lax_laws/srvc=home&position=recent

chelseaboys   •   Mon Jan 05 2009 at 02:23pm PST

Not to put too fine a point on it; but, you say fines “collected” which is different than fines “issued”. Even the government has trouble collecting its debts. You may want to clarify this.

sirfussypants   •   Tue Jan 06 2009 at 07:52am PST

Yeah, I saw that discrepancy as well and should clarify. I’m more interested in finding out how much is collected, but the data may be fuzzy due to people not paying or fines being reduced/dropped.
The market will cash out on tickets issued.
If for some reason the Globe only publishes the actual amount collected than I’ll use that as a back-up result.
Sorry for the many postings, I should have proof-read a little more I guess.
Cheers,

sirfussypants   •   Sat Jan 03 2009 at 03:24pm PST

Boston.com 1/3/09:

“A western Massachusetts man became Springfield’s – and possibly the state’s – first offender under the new marijuana decriminalization law that went into effect Friday. But the $100 fine he faces for pot possession is the least of his legal problems.

Police said 29-year-old Jose Burgos of Holyoke was arrested Friday afternoon by the city’s Vice Control Unit with 119 crack cocaine rocks and 45 bags of heroin in his car. When he was brought to the police station for booking, officers allegedly found 0.2 grams of marijuana in his right front pants pocket."

So evidently there will be at least a little enforcement.

Possesion of crack and heroin is still a no-no in Massachusetts BTW

sirfussypants   •   Sat Jan 03 2009 at 10:43am PST

Just to clarify: I realize the word “approximate” is in the prediction description and that this may cause some hesitation. I left this a little vauge because the eventual answer will likely be a little vauge. I will cash out the market a precisely as I can when a report is issued. If the Globe has a specific figure, that will be the cash out figure. If the indicate a rough “greater than” figure, that number will be the cash out figure. If they give a range I will go by the lowest number in the range given, and so on…

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