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Who will Obama select as his Chief Technology Officer?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Bill Gates

(closed)

Predicted: 2.32%

Actual: 0.00%

Bill Joy

(closed)

Predicted: 11.56%

Actual: 0.00%

Donald Gips

(closed)

Predicted: 0.30%

Actual: 0.00%

Ed Felten

(closed)

Predicted: 0.21%

Actual: 0.00%

Eric Schmidt

(closed)

Predicted: 1.76%

Actual: 0.00%

Esther Dyson

(closed)

Predicted: 0.25%

Actual: 0.00%

Field

(closed)

Predicted: 58.89%

Actual: 100.00%

Jeff Bezos

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

John Seely Brown

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Julius Genachowski

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Lawrence Lessig

(closed)

Predicted: 11.33%

Actual: 0.00%

No appointment by 4/30/09

(closed)

Predicted: 12.89%

Actual: 0.00%

Sonal Shah

(closed)

Predicted: 0.22%

Actual: 0.00%

Steve Ballmer

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Steve Jobs

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Vinton Cerf

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

Vivek Kundra

(closed)

Predicted: 0.12%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

April 30, 2009 @ 11:59pm PDT

Predictions Made

869

Most by: ChloeBurns (595 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Up Date

WDavidStephenson   •   Mon Jan 05 2009 at 07:45pm PST

Schmidt has already publicly turned it down,Jobs couldn’t possibly play well in a “Team of Rivals” (and can you imagine outrage if he parked in a handicapped parking space in DC [unless, of course, he, sad to say, had a handicapped tag?])

Matthew   •   Tue Jan 06 2009 at 04:04pm PST

From CNET:

“Former InterActiveCorp executive and Obama technology transition team member Julius Genachowski has been considered a strong contender for the CTO role, though he is also seen as a top choice for chairman of the Federal Communications Commission. The Washington Post reported last month that Genachowski may be more interested in the FCC position because of the CTO’s limited responsibilities.

“There does seem to be some belief (that) if he wants (the chairmanship), he’ll get it,” said David Kaut, a telecommunications, media, and tech policy analyst for the firm Stifel Nicolaus, who donated money to Obama. “The FCC is going to be the big player, when it comes to making and implementing policy, but depending on how much weight Obama wants to give the CTO, they could be a player as well.”

Matthew   •   Wed Jan 07 2009 at 07:40am PST

From Silicon Alley Insider:

A source familiar with the Obama transition team told SAI that no one has been offered the job yet, but a consensus has emerged on the qualities the CTO should have:

  • The CTO should have a Ph.D.
  • The candidate should have a scientific background, not an entrepreneurial one.
  • The person should be from Silicon Valley.

ctomaster   •   Thu Jan 08 2009 at 09:35am PST

how about “none of the above”?

BillyCat   •   Thu Jan 08 2009 at 10:56am PST

“Field” takes care of none of the above.

Also, welcome to Inkling! I see you just joined today.

ChloeBurns   •   Thu Jan 08 2009 at 07:06pm PST

This market needs a “No Appointment By” option. I suggest 4/30/09 — the end of President Obama’s first 100 days in office — as a cutoff date.

Matthew   •   Sat Jan 10 2009 at 06:56pm PST

Good point. Also, I’ve cleared up the vagaries of the word “select” in the Market Information section.

BillyCat   •   Tue Jan 13 2009 at 08:09am PST

Genachowski has been picked to head the FCC, so it’s probably safe to assume he’s out of the running for CTO

BillyCat   •   Thu Jan 15 2009 at 03:09pm PST

simon_   •   Thu Mar 05 2009 at 10:10am PST

CIO == CTO for the purposes of this market, right?

BillyCat   •   Thu Mar 05 2009 at 10:24am PST

I don’t think so… According to this article, Obama is still going to name a CTO, who Kundra will be working with as CIO.

http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2009/03/02/daily79.html?jst=b_ln_hl

“Kundra will work with Obama’s yet-to-be-named chief technology officer to promote the president’s technology agenda.”

Matthew   •   Fri Mar 06 2009 at 11:40am PST

The CIO is not the CTO. We are still expecting the administration to appoint someone to the role of CTO. For a long time, there has been speculation over what the CTO’s job would entail. Some people thought the CTO would function as the president’s top tech policy advisor. Others (including myself) suspected the CTO would be in charge of federal IT. As it turns out, this will be Kundra’s job as CIO. We still expect a CTO to be appointed, and that this person will be in charge of tech policy. From yesterday’s Washington Post:

Obama also plans to appoint a chief technology officer who will work closely with Kundra, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the announcements are not yet official. The exact job description for that position has not yet been announced, but the chief technology officer might focus more on overall technology policy while the chief information officer will handle day-to-day spending and operations within agency projects.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/05/AR2009030501060.html

BillyCat   •   Thu Mar 05 2009 at 10:35am PST

Here is another article that mentions the difference between the CTO and CIO position. http://newsblaze.com/story/2009030510230100002.pnw/topstory.html

""Today’s announcement recognizes the vital role that technology plays in our nation’s economy and job creation, and its influence on open and transparent government," noted Mark Bohannon, SIIA’s Senior Vice President for Public Policy and General Counsel. “Separating the roles of CIO – who will direct the policy and strategic planning of federal information technology investments and be responsible for oversight of federal technology spending – from the role of Chief Technology Officer makes a lot of sense.”"

Matthew   •   Fri Apr 17 2009 at 12:12pm PDT

I just heard a rumor that this position will be announced today. If it does not happen, I will re-open the market.

Matthew   •   Sat Apr 18 2009 at 06:30pm PDT

The president announced this morning that Aneesh Chopra will become CTO. If Chopra ultimately assumes this office, Field will be the winning stock.

Rationales

"Padmasree Warrior doesn't have gov. experience, figure that featuring Kundra in "TIGR" Change.gov video was trial balloon"

WDavidStephenson bought Vivek Kundra at 35.04%
January 21, 2009 @ 04:22pm PST

"Obama will want someone to shape role, not old timer capping career"

WDavidStephenson bought Vivek Kundra at 31.76%
January 15, 2009 @ 09:14pm PST

"I'm in seattle and they told me he was considering it!"

amsiegel bought Jeff Bezos at 1.48%
January 08, 2009 @ 10:09am PST

"profit taking"

regitsoff sold Field at 46.69%
January 07, 2009 @ 11:15am PST

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Field

No appointment by 4/30/09