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Which candidate will be the 2008 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Al Gore

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Barack Obama

(closed)

Predicted: 98.97%

Actual: 100.00%

Bill Richardson

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Christopher Dodd

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Evan Bayh

(closed)

Predicted: 0.12%

Actual: 0.00%

Field of Candidates

(closed)

Predicted: 0.06%

Actual: 0.00%

Hillary Clinton

(closed)

Predicted: 0.96%

Actual: 0.00%

Joe Biden

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

John Edwards

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

John Kerry

(closed)

Predicted: 0.03%

Actual: 0.00%

Mark Warner

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Russ Feingold

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

Tom Daschle

(closed)

Predicted: 0.10%

Actual: 0.00%

Tom Vilsack

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

Wesley Clark

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

August 28, 2008 @ 12:00am PDT

Predictions Made

3385

Most by: stomv (438 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

vintermann   •   Thu Feb 07 2008 at 10:44am PST

I just bought 2000 shares of “field of candidates” for 0.0. That’s right, I got them for free. It’s a long shot, I know, but that was rather risk-free :-)

wstritt   •   Sat Feb 09 2008 at 08:47pm PST

Not a bad idea. In the event of a brokered convention, maybe someone other than Hillary or Barack will get the nod in the interest of party harmony. Free options are always worth the price.

jedc   •   Thu Jan 10 2008 at 07:28am PST

Until a candidate themselves declares themselves out of the running, their contract will not be closed.

stomv   •   Thu Jan 10 2008 at 04:26am PST

Richardson is out: AP Says Richardson Out

RecycledCardboardBox   •   Sun Jan 06 2008 at 08:59am PST

Dodd and Biden have dropped out.

BeyondHandles   •   Fri Dec 28 2007 at 02:31pm PST

What about Mike Gravel?

fitzpatk   •   Mon Dec 03 2007 at 07:59am PST

not to be inflammatory, but why isn’t dennis kucinich included?

modernise   •   Wed May 02 2007 at 06:34am PDT

Wow. John Edwards looks very cheap. He is polling very well in Des Moines which could be enough to pull him through a very tight primary calendar.

jedc   •   Mon Apr 09 2007 at 07:28am PDT

PerfectHandle   •   Tue Apr 03 2007 at 09:56am PDT

PerfectHandle   •   Fri Feb 02 2007 at 09:58am PST

EUEHPDof   •   Fri Jan 19 2007 at 08:18pm PST

I’m back…with thanks for how you handled the “field/Obama” thing. Here’s my latest q: why did field go up so much today? Is there another guy or gal out there who is hinting at a run?

jedc   •   Tue Jan 16 2007 at 07:38am PST

I can guarantee that no more candidates will be added.

char   •   Fri Jan 12 2007 at 12:44pm PST

Is there a deadline after which no more candidates will be added? If not, it seems that the field stock can almost never win, because as soon as someone not named appears popular, they will be added.

For example, suppose I think the obscure state senator Pat T. Fakename is sure to win the nomination. I buy the field stock heavily. But when Pat starts making it into the headlines, the market manager could add a stock for Senator Fakename, and I’d be stuck with a lot of field shares representing candidates I never believed in and no reward for predicting Pat’s success.

This seems like a tricky problem, and I’m not faulting the market manager for the handling so far (with Obama). But an explicit policy for cases like this would help.

sircu5   •   Wed Jan 03 2007 at 12:46am PST

I disagree with the decision not to close the markets in certain candidates. While I accept that people change their minds, this is usually more “2004: No”, “2005: Maybe”, “2006: Probably”, etc. Someone who’s said at the end of 2006 or the start of 2007 that they’re not running… isn’t going to run, at least not in 2008.

In the meantime, the market ends up being inaccurate. I have a short position in Evan Bayh. If there was some chance of him being cashed out at some point soon, I’d keep (and maybe extend) that position. Shorting him from 3% down to 0.5% takes a lot of capital (to cover the position) for little potential gain. I’m not prepared to keep that capital tied up until spring 2008. If the contracts are going to stay open, I’ll close my short position, which will put the Evan Bayh contract 1% higher. So, unless someone’s got capital to burn, you’re left with Evan Bayh sitting at ~4% until 2008 whilst his chance of being selected is, realistically, zero.

jedc   •   Tue Jan 02 2007 at 01:58pm PST

For everyone’s interest, no contracts will be closed out until the actual primary season (spring 2008). Even though a number of candidates have declared they aren’t running, there is plenty of time for them to change their mind. In other words, there is a good potential to “short” these candidates to make some inkles.

jedc   •   Sat Dec 30 2006 at 04:43pm PST

I managed to change the “Field” to Barack Obama and add a new “Field” choice at $0.00. Let me know if there are any problems with this.

EUEHPDof   •   Fri Nov 17 2006 at 10:34am PST

I asked the Obama question before he came out with his book, and the market maker had said that he based it entirely on those that had formed exploratory committees, which was a very plausible answer.

My “field” investment has octupled.

ecuzzillo   •   Thu Nov 16 2006 at 09:39am PST

Where’s Barack Obama?!

jedc   •   Wed Oct 18 2006 at 07:38am PDT

I find it interesting that Al Gore is priced so high. Since he has made no obvious moves to run for the presidential nomination, it must reflect highly on his chances if he does decide to run.

historical trend

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More information about the possible answers

Al Gore

Barack Obama

Bill Richardson

Christopher Dodd

Evan Bayh

Field of Candidates

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

John Edwards

John Kerry

Mark Warner

Russ Feingold

Tom Daschle

Tom Vilsack

Wesley Clark