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When will the next Nankai earthquake occur?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

In 2009

(closed)

Predicted: 0.08%

Actual: 0.00%

In 2010

(closed)

Predicted: 0.84%

Actual: 0.00%

In 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.61%

Actual: 0.00%

In 2012

(closed)

Predicted: 0.74%

Actual: 0.00%

In 2013

(closed)

2.41%

In 2014

(closed)

2.22%

In 2015

(closed)

23.59%

In 2016

(closed)

23.60%

In 2017

(closed)

23.12%

In 2018 or later

(closed)

25.05%

  • expired

Question ends

January 01, 2019 @ 08:23am PST

topic

Science

Predictions Made

624

Most by: MFWinAlford (501 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:15am PST

This market has been suspended. To forecast similar questions, please visit http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com

K1050   •   Mon Jan 07 2013 at 05:22pm PST

Ditto for 2012. No Nankai earthquake. 2012 should cash out at 0.

wstritt   •   Sun Jan 01 2012 at 08:16am PST

No Nankai earthquake in 2011. 2011 should cash out at 0.

wstritt   •   Sat Jan 01 2011 at 08:00pm PST

No Nankai earthquake in 2010. 2010 should cash out at 0.

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Jan 08 2010 at 02:45am PST

I assume there was no earthquake in 2009? Can you pay out that year now (at zero)?

Creigs   •   Mon Aug 17 2009 at 01:47pm PDT

Don’t you need a choice for “after 2018”?

sanxiyn   •   Mon Aug 17 2009 at 05:16pm PDT

If it doesn’t happen before 2018 is over, I shall refund.

wstritt   •   Mon Aug 17 2009 at 05:35pm PDT

If you propose to refund, people will have to tie up Inkles for 9 years only for no payoff and taking inkles away from anyone that had shorted 2009-2017 and had already paid out? Only do that if you don’t want anyone to trade in the market.

I’d suggest making “2018” “2018 or later” or adding “after 2018”.

sanxiyn   •   Mon Aug 17 2009 at 07:32pm PDT

Ok, amended to “2018 or later”.

Rationales

"123"

sC#hah9v bought In 2014 at 15.82%
October 30, 2013 @ 11:19am PDT

"last in 1946, happens every 100-200 years, but 3/11 may have aggravated"

Ah!ba6th bought In 2014 at 16.04%
March 29, 2013 @ 06:01am PDT

"The Nankai Trough is already on the point where eventually it will snap, and that eventually might be in mid-2010."

eeTh3$hu bought In 2010 at 30.41%
February 09, 2010 @ 10:43am PST

"no sence..."

vincze bought In 2012 at 10.07%
October 20, 2009 @ 01:50am PDT

historical trend

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