Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

What Will Each Player's Rank be at the End of the Year?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED VALUE

TODAY

AxmxZ

(closed)

Predicted: 11.00

Actual: 11.00

BillyCat

(closed)

Predicted: 52.00

Actual: 52.00

BobM

(closed)

Predicted: 7.00

Actual: 7.00

BuyHighSellLow

(closed)

Predicted: 54.60

Actual: 55.00

ChloeBurns

(closed)

Predicted: 5.00

Actual: 5.00

Diesel

(closed)

Predicted: 41.60

Actual: 42.00

Garth Brewer

(closed)

Predicted: 2.00

Actual: 2.00

K1050

(closed)

Predicted: 14.00

Actual: 14.00

RecycledCardboardBox

(closed)

Predicted: 24.00

Actual: 24.00

Sunidh

(closed)

Predicted: 34.00

Actual: 34.00

Twins Auditor

(closed)

Predicted: 17.00

Actual: 17.00

ajtaylor

(closed)

Predicted: 9.00

Actual: 9.00

char

(closed)

Predicted: 22.00

Actual: 22.00

chelseaboys

(closed)

Predicted: 6.00

Actual: 6.00

cwtapp

(closed)

Predicted: 12.00

Actual: 12.00

dabee47

(closed)

Predicted: 46.00

Actual: 47.00

foobar

(closed)

Predicted: 30.00

Actual: 30.00

grandmasterfunky

(closed)

Predicted: 13.00

Actual: 13.00

helluvadrug

(closed)

Predicted: 27.00

Actual: 27.00

jd17

(closed)

Predicted: 35.00

Actual: 35.00

jlc21

(closed)

Predicted: 25.00

Actual: 25.00

lpalli

(closed)

Predicted: 19.00

Actual: 19.00

mvguy

(closed)

Predicted: 16.00

Actual: 16.00

nzight

(closed)

Predicted: 40.40

Actual: 41.00

odysseus

(closed)

Predicted: 20.00

Actual: 20.00

onemike

(closed)

Predicted: 18.00

Actual: 18.00

sbalen

(closed)

Predicted: 21.00

Actual: 21.00

shanafme

(closed)

Predicted: 37.00

Actual: 37.00

simon_

(closed)

Predicted: 10.00

Actual: 10.00

sircu5

(closed)

Predicted: 33.00

Actual: 33.00

theycallmemorty

(closed)

Predicted: 28.00

Actual: 28.00

tyrannic

(closed)

Predicted: 36.50

Actual: 36.00

wstritt

(closed)

Predicted: 1.00

Actual: 1.00

zakarria

(closed)

Predicted: 8.00

Actual: 8.00

  • completed

Question ends

December 31, 2010 @ 07:00pm PST

Predictions Made

1306

Most by: MFWinAlford (685 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

job   •   Thu Dec 30 2010 at 11:37am PST

If you take the “friendslist”, you have always the most recent amount of money (it is even more accurate then your own dashboard) of each member. The only thing is that you have to correct the ranking, becouse that is changing only once a day on the friendslist.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Dec 30 2010 at 11:53am PST

I would strongly object to having him “correct the ranking” because then it becomes unverifiable. As you say, the ranking will not change once it is posted, so all players can see what it was as of ~1 AM Pacific time on January 1. That is the only fair way to do this; one that is objective and transparent. Otherwise, we could be in for some arguments and hard feelings. :)

Twins Auditor   •   Thu Dec 30 2010 at 12:41pm PST

I do plan to use the “rankings” and not the Inkling amounts on January 1st based on my “Friends” list. I am in the Central time zone (if that matters).

I should mention that I have no positions in this market (and generally believe that market markers should not take positions in their own market), so I have no bias toward a particular method, but will try to use a method that is fair.

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Jan 01 2011 at 03:50am PST

A Very Happy New Year to everyone. 1/1/11! Something nice about that…

As of this writing, the rankings have not been updated to reflect year-end “worth” — but I can find only one possible switch that might affect this market. It appears that “simon_” (10) has overtaken “ajtaylor” (9).

Many of the active players had nice gains yesterday, as some of the year-end markets were paid off. The only changes in rank I noticed, however, besides that one in this market, were “SneakyPete” (54) overtaking “Pooint0507” (53) and “inklingtrader” (133) moving ahead of “gcohen85” (132).

I guess we can now all turn our attention to "job"’s end of April ranking market. As for me, I have so many positions in the various football markets (most of which will pay out tomorrow) that I haven’t had the time or energy to focus on basketball and hockey, so I now have something else to fritter away my time on!

Twins, thanks for a fun merket!

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Jan 01 2011 at 04:54am PST

The rankings have now been updated to reflect year-end values. It turns out that the #9 and #10 slots did not change hands, after all, so the rankings (as far as this market goes) are the same as they were yesterday.

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Jan 01 2011 at 11:44am PST

Twins, did you disappear again? It would be good to cash this market out today, while everyone has access to the latest profile numbers…

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Jan 01 2011 at 06:58pm PST

Continued frustration, on my part, that this market has not been cashed out. A window of transparency is closing. So far as I can tell, all of the answers should be cashed out at their final price, with the exception of the following:

BuyHighSellLow = 55
Diesel = 42
nzight = 41
tyrranic = 36

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Jan 02 2011 at 02:03am PST

Wonderful! Thank you, whoever cashed this out.

wstritt   •   Thu Dec 30 2010 at 12:44pm PST

Your approach sounds reasonable. Welcome back, by the way, hopefully for more than just the cash out of this market.

Twins Auditor   •   Thu Dec 30 2010 at 05:37am PST

Sorry guys, I have been inactive for awhile, but I plan to close out this market as follows:

On January 1st, I’ll take a look at my “Friends,” which includes the rank of every player listed in this question. I will use the rank of each “Friend” to determine the final value.

If there are any problems with this solution let me know.

mvguy   •   Thu Dec 30 2010 at 10:54am PST

TA — Your plan sounds reasonable to me.

chelseaboys   •   Thu Dec 30 2010 at 09:03am PST

Welcome back from the dead!

I agree.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Dec 30 2010 at 05:43am PST

That sounds fine to me. Just be sure that you do it after the ranks have been updated that day. As I say, that usually seems to happen around 8 AM ET, but there is quite a bit of variability around that. I plan to be monitoring this, so if you like, I can send you a message (or post here) when I notice they’ve been updated. That is, provided I don’t stay out TOO late dancing on New Year’s Eve! ;)

wstritt   •   Wed Dec 29 2010 at 07:58pm PST

Are the admins going to take a snapshot of the standings as of midnight somewhere? Once the 12/31 market expirations start to cash out on Jan 1, some chance rankings will change. With Twins seemingly inactive, could be a problem recreating 12/31 close out standings.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Dec 30 2010 at 04:23am PST

I was pondering this question, too. The definition of “year-end” that is. It does seem fair that it be done as of midnight (but what time zone?!), since there will be many year-end markets being cashed out at random times before and after.

Unless, however, the admins are willing to make special provisions for this market, it seems to me that the fairest way to settle it is by using the “stats” or “profile” numbers as of Jan. 1. Since these are readily available, it should avoid any disputes.

These numbers seem to be published each day at random times, around 8 AM ET, but are based (I believe) on data collected at 1 AM Pacific time. That’s close enough to midnight for me.

Many of the year-end markets can (and I hope will) be cashed out tomorrow (31st), such as all of Job’s stock market questions. Many will not be know for some time (such as how many iPads were sold in 2010).

In any event, what I propose will, I believe, be fair to all. Any thoughts, anyone?

SneakyPete   •   Wed Dec 15 2010 at 09:47am PST

This is a new question type for me. Am I predicting where an individual will end up in the standing? For example where will player ABCD end up in the standings?

job   •   Wed Dec 15 2010 at 10:03am PST

That’s right. If you buy Diesel at 385 you predict he ends 39 or higher. If he stays on its present place (41) you get 410 payed out!

SneakyPete   •   Wed Dec 15 2010 at 10:23am PST

Thanks…. I think I got it. Mery Christmas and a Happy “Inkling” New Year.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Dec 15 2010 at 01:57pm PST

A Happy to you, too! My “best buy” recommendation right now in this market is “sircu5” which is priced below 30 and seems poised to go out the year at position 33. That’s a 3% return in 2 weeks if I’m right; not a huge return, but very little risk!

SneakyPete   •   Fri Dec 17 2010 at 10:06am PST

I will go for broke…. Thanks.

philculp   •   Fri Oct 29 2010 at 01:26pm PDT

If you are wanting to add people 40 or better I am currently sitting at 28.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Dec 15 2010 at 01:52pm PST

“Twins” has been MIA for some time now.

You just got added to "Job"s new market: http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/33711

odysseus   •   Fri Jul 09 2010 at 09:17pm PDT

MFWinAlford has returned from the grave, and is now sitting pretty at 12th place. Could you add him and P155272 at 10th(!)?

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Jul 09 2010 at 10:25pm PDT

Thanks for noticing, odysseus. See my profile for an explanation. In my experience, when you add an answer to a market that is already underway, you have no control over the price — I think it comes in at the average price of all stocks in the market. I may be wrong here, but if I’m right, perhaps this is a feature that we should request (being able to name a price).

I might add, in observing this list, that there are several new players who have worked their way into the top 40, so there are some good opportunities to make some inkles here, since some of the names listed seem to be inactive and moving down the list. The problem is, of course, that it means tying inkles up for the rest of the year with a pretty low ROI. Still, if you have a few extra inkles, it’s not a bad place to park them.

mvguy   •   Fri Oct 29 2010 at 05:58am PDT

If it’s a market like this one, where there’s not one correct answer and each entity works kind of like a market unto itself, then you can set the price when you create the new entity. I’ve added numerous films to my top-10-movies-of-the-year market that way quite a few times. But if you add a new line to a winner-takes-all market, then I’m pretty sure you’re stuck with the price the system sets. I haven’t done that in quite a while, because the last time I did it messed up the market big-time. But it’s possible that the setup has changed since then.

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Oct 29 2010 at 06:49am PDT

Thanks for the observation. Maybe I’ll try it next time I set up such a market (before there are any trades made), just to see if it still works that way.

chelseaboys   •   Fri Oct 29 2010 at 11:46am PDT

I have been adding people to the Chicago mayor market and the system gives them odds on a pro rata basis, I believe. I think if it’s a big market, like mine, it doesn’t make a big difference. If you were adding one to a market with only a few stocks, then the difference could be substantial.

odysseus   •   Fri Jun 18 2010 at 08:48pm PDT

Does anyone know who the current rank 21 is? I think he just leap-frogged me and helluvadrug just as I was on the verge of passing him.

wstritt   •   Fri Jun 18 2010 at 08:51pm PDT

That would be P155272

P155272   •   Fri Jun 18 2010 at 11:15pm PDT

Correct at the moment I am in 21st

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Jun 19 2010 at 05:06am PDT

Movin’ right up! #20 today…

theycallmemorty   •   Mon May 03 2010 at 01:36pm PDT

I’ve moved up to 33! Short me and I might move up to 32!

Pyramid Scheme FTW! :D

theycallmemorty   •   Tue Jun 15 2010 at 05:26am PDT

I’m now in 26th place!

sbalen   •   Mon May 03 2010 at 07:08am PDT

32 = dabee47
37 = BuyHighSellLow

wstritt   •   Thu Apr 15 2010 at 06:26pm PDT

How about an MFAlfordWin stock? Given his trading strategy, each share would be quite expensive but if you shorted and he ever decided to reverse all of his trades, you would make a killing.

Twins Auditor   •   Thu Apr 15 2010 at 06:42pm PDT

I (at first) had him at an approximate value of 85,000. I, however, didn’t want to blow-up my first market by creating a situation that could potentially be manipulated. Along that note, MNWinAlford, are you willing to share what is your greatest short position market?

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Apr 15 2010 at 07:02pm PDT

Given that they could change the accounting system again, I wouldn’t bother! Of course, if they did, that would probably mess up some of the rankings shown here.
At the moment, my largest (short) holding is in the Australian election market. I hold short positions in every month (in different amounts, of course — else, it would be a wash!). My expectation is that it will be called for sometime this winter — probably July or August. In any case, at some point in the next year, this market will be closed out, at which time you will see a huge jump in my net worth (though it may remain negative).
As for changing my style, it seems highly unlikely, though ya never know! I have been playing chelseaboys’s hockey playoff markets with mostly long positions, and they are quite fun.
btw, fwiw (probably nothing!), my net worth shown to me on my dashboard is about a million inkles less than what appears in my profile. So, I could make $1MM in a single day and not even show up on the weekly leaderboard. Very bizarre!

wstritt   •   Thu Apr 15 2010 at 06:57pm PDT

It would have been the perfect short for him.

chelseaboys   •   Thu Apr 15 2010 at 09:08am PDT

This takes a while to understand. You want to sell short if you think the person will do better this year, right? Seems counterintuitive.

Twins Auditor   •   Thu Apr 15 2010 at 09:22am PDT

Yes, sell yourself short (lol). It makes more sense when you click on an individual name and can keep in mind that is the predicted rank at year-end 2010. I set the scale so that some inkles can be made by either shorting or buying.

Twins Auditor   •   Thu Apr 15 2010 at 05:56am PDT

I have everyone that is currently ranked between 1 and 20, but I am missing the following players (by rank) in the top 40:

21
22
25
28
30
31
32
33
37
39

If anyone has the user names for any of those ranks, please send them my way and I’ll add them at a dollar value that is equal to their current rank.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Apr 15 2010 at 09:04am PDT

21 Sunidh

theycallmemorty   •   Thu Apr 15 2010 at 05:17am PDT

Does anyone know of a list of all players or the top 100 where I can see everyone’s current value?

AxmxZ   •   Wed Apr 14 2010 at 09:49pm PDT

It’s come to this: a meta-market. :))

Diesel   •   Wed Apr 14 2010 at 09:33pm PDT

woo hoo! I made the list

Rationales

"seems to be inactive"

Best4Lowell bought jd17 at 29.23
November 12, 2010 @ 04:32pm PST

"If I'm lucky I'll make a killing in the November political markets."

mvguy sold mvguy at 13.05
August 31, 2010 @ 09:10am PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader