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When will the first tablet computer running Android or Chrome OS be launched?




Release Date


Predicted: July 11, 2010

Actual: July 11, 2010

  • refunded

Question ends

December 31, 2012 @ 11:59pm PST

Predictions Made


Most by: dbfclark (7 predictions)


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NoobSensei   •   Wed Jul 07 2010 at 06:09pm PDT

The Archos device that was already available when the market was created has a 7" diagonal. The iPad (which was what I had in mind by a tablet) has a 9.7" diagonal. So let’s split the difference. For the purpose of this market, a tablet will be defined as a device with at least a 8.35" diagonal.

dbfclark   •   Wed Jul 07 2010 at 06:15pm PDT

Not unreasonable in theory, but it would be much better, in view of the absence of clarity (on which people traded), to refund this and open a new version with that stipulation.

dbfclark   •   Wed Jul 07 2010 at 09:24am PDT

This review:

suggests that an Android tablet has been commercially available since at least 4/7/2010. Certainly it’s available at Amazon now:

So this market should probably be closed.

foobar   •   Wed Jul 07 2010 at 09:44am PDT

Interesting. I was basing my prediction on Tablet computer being more like an iPad. That is larger than the 5" and 7" tablets available.
This article includes the Dell device which is 5" but then dismisses it as a tablet because of the size:

Of course, it’s a bit of a stretch to call this device a tablet in the Apple sense, in fact, this device sounds more like a mobile Internet device (MID).

See also:
What makes a tablet a tablet? (FAQ)

which states:
Traditionally the categories of mobile computing devices break down in terms of size: smartphones have 3- to 5-inch screens, MIDs (mobile Internet devices) range between 5 and 7 inches, and tablets are between 7 and 10 inches.

So where does this 7" device fit into landscape. I would say, because it looks remarkably similar to the 5" device but simply larger that it would be a MID. The complicating factor, of course is where does a 7" device fit into the above scheme – it straddles.

foobar   •   Wed Jul 07 2010 at 09:47am PDT

And, I would have to add, given that this market opened after the above 7" device was available at Amazon (April 1, 2010) that they meant something different from this device.

twhitezell   •   Wed Jul 07 2010 at 09:51am PDT

i’d have to agree with you on this, if it was counting the small tablet, then it would be best if the market was refunded

dbfclark   •   Wed Jul 07 2010 at 10:43am PDT

Without input from the market’s creator, I can’t really judge whether this should be counted or not — as you mention, it’s hard to tell what’s a tablet from the question as stated (I was going with “an android device marketed as a tablet” as a rule of thumb). I think my interpretation is not unreasonable, so I’d prefer to see this example either counted or the question refunded.

twhitezell   •   Wed Jul 07 2010 at 10:45am PDT

without any further clarification, it would have to be refunded, seeing as the above mentioned tablet was already available for sale when this market was created, though I do agree that your interpretation is perfectly acceptable

foobar   •   Wed Jul 07 2010 at 11:30am PDT

I can only imagine that the market must be refunded because we do not have a good definition of a “tablet.” Certainly it can not count a device that already existed on the market before the question was asked – that would be silly. This is a prediction market after all.

twhitezell   •   Wed Jul 07 2010 at 11:37am PDT

what happens if the creator just never comes back?

foobar   •   Wed Jul 07 2010 at 11:42am PDT

Generally speaking, I contact the market creator first and if there is no response I click the link below that says “contact administrator” and ask the administrator to close/cash out/refund the market.

historical trend

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Release Date