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MLB: How many games will the Cubs lose in 2010?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED VALUE

TODAY

Number of Losses

(closed)

Predicted: 89.95

Actual: 89.95

  • refunded

Question ends

October 01, 2010 @ 01:04pm PDT

topic

Sports

Predictions Made

3

Most by: MFWinAlford (2 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Oct 05 2010 at 07:20pm PDT

I cannot get this thing off my dashboard!

amsiegel (ADMIN)   •   Tue Aug 10 2010 at 04:46pm PDT

The starting price of 850 or whatever it was was probably a bit too high although I understand why you might have done this to minimize volatility. You did the scale correctly but it’s a pretty expensive market for most people. Given there isn’t a lot of movement (and therefore opportunities for money-making) you may just be better off starting this over and doing ranges OR starting this over and having the stock price start at 80/85 and not use a scale at all to widen the opportunity for participation.

philculp   •   Tue Aug 10 2010 at 02:28pm PDT

correction, asking for $18000 to adjust down .2.

philculp   •   Tue Aug 10 2010 at 02:27pm PDT

I like I large scale, allows for a lot of risk/reward, but this might to great. To adjust down .2 it is asking for $5000?? I guess it could mean gigantic payoffs even if you are only off by one game.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Aug 10 2010 at 02:11pm PDT

Cubs are currently 47 up and 65 down with 50 to play.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Aug 10 2010 at 02:09pm PDT

I’m hoping I understand the scale trick. I have never done one of these numbers markets before. We’ll see.

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Aug 10 2010 at 02:35pm PDT

See remarks be PhilCulp below. I figured I would buy some shares, since I’m willing to bet they will lose more than 90! However, there does seem to be a disconnect between the number on this page and the one on my dashboard. You got it right for this page (it said 90.00 before I bought 20 shares and now it says 90.20), but on my dashboard the price is $902.00! And, as Phil points out, it cost me $18K to do that. You’re not going to get many players, I’m afraid.

I’ve noticed a similar lack of consistency in this market:
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/26534
where the cash prices are actually 10 times the “Predicted Values” shown.

Inkling seems to be trying to move away from $s to %s, and have dropped a decimal point in some places. It’s a bit confusing.

I was going to be a wise ass and ask you if this includes post-season games, but I guess that would be piling on!

chelseaboys   •   Tue Aug 10 2010 at 02:43pm PDT

Oh, and adding any post season losses would only increase it by 3!

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Aug 10 2010 at 04:16pm PDT

ROTFL! I guess Cub fans can be as spacey as Red Sox fans!

chelseaboys   •   Tue Aug 10 2010 at 02:42pm PDT

I was looking for a big enough payout to be interesting on what is a pretty fixed market (compared to I-pads for instance). They can’t possibly lose more than 115 and no less than the 65 they have now (HA!). But, I admit that it I am a complete novice at the scale thing. What do you think would be a better ratio and I’ll refund and start over. I used a .1 scale and set the initial price at 900.

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Aug 10 2010 at 04:18pm PDT

A refund and a retry would be fine with me. Perhaps that combo would work better. As it is, not many players have enough free inkles to invest in your question…

chelseaboys   •   Tue Aug 10 2010 at 04:41pm PDT

What combo do you suggest? That (.1 with 900 price) is what I am using now.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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