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What will the number of corruption convictions in the state of Texas be for 2010?

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PREDICTED VALUE

TODAY

Number of Convictions

(closed)

Predicted: 65.00

Actual: 71.00

  • completed

Question ends

December 31, 2011 @ 11:59pm PST

Predictions Made

9

Most by: wstritt (3 predictions)

Discussion

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kmader   •   Tue Aug 17 2010 at 06:50pm PDT

Please guys, feel free to make some sort of comment on why you think what you think. As well, is there someway that you’d change the wording on this stock to increase interest?

wstritt   •   Tue Aug 17 2010 at 09:20pm PDT

By the way, your link is helpful for historical perspective though it would be useful if there were readily avaiable interim tallys to help inform trading (e.g. my hurricane market).

wstritt   •   Tue Aug 17 2010 at 09:06pm PDT

A couple of thoughts on level of interest in the market – 1) “Texas corruption convictions” is a relatively obscure topic that is realtively harder to come up with an opinion on versus, say, who will hit 40 home runs in 2010, 2) cash out horizon of sometime in 2011 is a long time to wait given other alternatives, and 3) number prediction markets do not have a lot of upside in them versus the same markets phrased in, say, multiple choice fashion. The combination of these factors probably reduces relative trading interest.

On the last two points, this market started at 50 so if I think the right number is 100, most I can do is double my inkles when buying one share. If I buy it up to 100, my average purchase price is 75 so my return on investment if I am right is only 33% (25/75) and I would have to wait until next year for payout. Assuming I bought it up to 100 anyway and someone else thought answer was 110, their return on investment if they bought it up to 110 is less than 5% (5/105 average purchase price). Given wait, why bother given other investment options with higher/nearer term payoffs unless you thought price was way off (or if have lots of excess inkles laying around). Different scaling (like you did with Mississippi) might help as % gain on same amount of inkle investment improves for at least early investors however entry price is high which might keep investors away – combination of these factors is why the Constitution market, for example, is way underpriced.

If question were phrased as multiple choice question in, say, 10 increments of 10 (e.g. 50 or below, 51-60, …141 or more), with starting price of 10 at default prices means 10 time payoff if I buy 1 share of 91-100 verus 2 times payoff per above. And I could buy 5 times the number of shares for the same inkle outlay (initially anyway). If next person thinks answer is 110 rather than 100, they have same 10X payoff (higher actually) rather than 5% gain per above. There is, of course, more downside since you could lose it all, but since there is more upside, there is more incentive to research what answer could be likely leading to more trading even with payout in 2011 (though even this wouldn’t help Constition market much).

Just my 2 cents. Of course there are a lot of multiple choice markets where trading is thin either for obscurity or long time until payout reasons including a number that I have created (e.g. Barry Bonds trial).

Good luck.

historical trend

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Number of Convictions