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Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.
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Rationales
"Who says you need high art to make money?"
mvguy bought Jackass 3D (~$101.5M as of 10/31) at 10.17%
October 18, 2010 @ 05:54pm PDT
"Going the Distance...."
chelseaboys bought Any film not listed at 1.95%
August 27, 2010 @ 05:30pm PDT
"Doesn't open unyil Thanksgiving"
chelseaboys sold Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows 1 (Nov. 19) at 26.06%
August 27, 2010 @ 05:23pm PDT
historical trend
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Background information
The winner of this market will be the film that is released on Sept. 2, 2010, or later and reaches at least $100,000,000 in total domestic box office.
The market will be resolved based on listings of box office and opening dates at Box Office Mojo. If BOM should cease operations, numbers at The Numbers will be used.
An underdog rule is in effect. If two or more films reach or pass $100,000,000 on the same day, the film that does so with the lowest total will be the winner.
At the discretion of the market originator, films may cash out at $0 before the end of the market if they drop out of the top 10 while having a cumulative total of $75,000,000 or less. A film also may cash out early if it is surpassed by $10,000,000 or more by a film that opened more recently, or if it is surpassed by $20,000,000 or more by a film that opened on the same day.
Any ongoing box office totals listed are included as a courtesy of the market originator. Although I will attempt to be accurate, you should double-check to make sure they coincide with the genuine totals. A tilde (~) before any total indicates an estimate based on published reports and may not be reliable.
Insider trading: The market originator will be participating once the market has been open for at least 48 hours.
Cashout time: Once a film passes the $100,000,000 mark, the market will be closed as of 9 p.m. Pacific Time (standard or daylight, depending on which date) the evening that the limit was passed.
More information about the possible answers
Any film not listed
I will use this space to list other potential contenders as they come up during the course of the market. A film doesn’t have to be listed here, however, to win.
As of the most recent update of this list, other contenders could include:
The Company Men (Oct. 22)
Saw 3D (Oct. 29)
Skyline (Nov. 12)
Morning Glory (Nov. 12)
Discussion
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mvguy • Fri Oct 29 2010 at 06:30am PDT
Note to market participants: This market was set up so that it would cash out after the fact at 9 p.m. of the day the film passes $100M. In all likelihood, “Jackass 3D” will do that this weekend, although I don’t know whether that will be on Saturday or Sunday. I’m going to modify the closing procedure just a bit so that market isn’t open for a long period of time (potentially for nearly two days) where people potentially are making investments that don’t count because of backdating the cashout.
Here’s the plan: The market will be scheduled to close at 9 p.m. PDT Sunday. If official weekend estimates put the cumulative total at over $100.5 million (which seems likely), I will cash out the market sometime Sunday night without backdating the closing time. Otherwise I will reopen the market and go back to the original plan.
(Although I have a considerable number of inkles in this market, I have not engaged in any insider trading for the past week, and I will not invest any more, so this change doesn’t give me any advantage.)
chelseaboys • Fri Aug 27 2010 at 05:21pm PDT
Where can we find the release dates?
ChloeBurns • Fri Aug 27 2010 at 05:24pm PDT
Movie release schedule
chelseaboys • Fri Aug 27 2010 at 05:27pm PDT
Perfect, thanks. I Like.