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Which film released after Sept. 1, 2010, will be the first to reach $100M in total domestic box office receipts?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Any film not listed

(closed)

Predicted: 0.06%

Actual: 0.00%

Due Date (Nov. 5)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

Easy A

(closed)

Predicted: 0.37%

Actual: 0.00%

Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows 1 (Nov. 19)

(closed)

Predicted: 2.11%

Actual: 0.00%

Hereafter

(closed)

Predicted: 0.08%

Actual: 0.00%

Jackass 3D (~$101.5M as of 10/31)

(closed)

Predicted: 97.15%

Actual: 100.00%

Legend of the Guardians: The Owls

(closed)

Predicted: 0.36%

Actual: 0.00%

Life as We Know It

(closed)

Predicted: 0.33%

Actual: 0.00%

Machete

(closed)

Predicted: 0.44%

Actual: 0.00%

Megamind (Nov. 5)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.46%

Actual: 0.00%

Paranormal Activity (~$66M as of 10/31)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.06%

Actual: 0.00%

Red

(closed)

Predicted: 0.33%

Actual: 0.00%

Resident Evil: Afterlife

(closed)

Predicted: 2.04%

Actual: 0.00%

Secretariat

(closed)

Predicted: 0.33%

Actual: 0.00%

The Social Network

(closed)

Predicted: 1.64%

Actual: 0.00%

The Town

(closed)

Predicted: 0.05%

Actual: 0.00%

Unstoppable (Nov. 12)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.06%

Actual: 0.00%

Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

(closed)

Predicted: 2.35%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

October 31, 2010 @ 07:00pm PDT

Predictions Made

111

Most by: mvguy (27 predictions)

Discussion

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mvguy   •   Fri Oct 29 2010 at 06:30am PDT

Note to market participants: This market was set up so that it would cash out after the fact at 9 p.m. of the day the film passes $100M. In all likelihood, “Jackass 3D” will do that this weekend, although I don’t know whether that will be on Saturday or Sunday. I’m going to modify the closing procedure just a bit so that market isn’t open for a long period of time (potentially for nearly two days) where people potentially are making investments that don’t count because of backdating the cashout.

Here’s the plan: The market will be scheduled to close at 9 p.m. PDT Sunday. If official weekend estimates put the cumulative total at over $100.5 million (which seems likely), I will cash out the market sometime Sunday night without backdating the closing time. Otherwise I will reopen the market and go back to the original plan.

(Although I have a considerable number of inkles in this market, I have not engaged in any insider trading for the past week, and I will not invest any more, so this change doesn’t give me any advantage.)

chelseaboys   •   Fri Aug 27 2010 at 05:21pm PDT

Where can we find the release dates?

ChloeBurns   •   Fri Aug 27 2010 at 05:24pm PDT

chelseaboys   •   Fri Aug 27 2010 at 05:27pm PDT

Perfect, thanks. I Like.

Rationales

"Who says you need high art to make money?"

mvguy bought Jackass 3D (~$101.5M as of 10/31) at 10.17%
October 18, 2010 @ 05:54pm PDT

"Going the Distance...."

chelseaboys bought Any film not listed at 1.95%
August 27, 2010 @ 05:30pm PDT

"Doesn't open unyil Thanksgiving"

chelseaboys sold Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows 1 (Nov. 19) at 26.06%
August 27, 2010 @ 05:23pm PDT

historical trend

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Any film not listed