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How many "Tea Party" candidates (as defined) were elected to the U.S. Senate in the Nov. 2, 2010, elections?






Predicted: 0.86%

Actual: 0.00%



Predicted: 37.48%

Actual: 0.00%



Predicted: 48.18%

Actual: 0.00%



Predicted: 3.92%

Actual: 0.00%



Predicted: 0.78%

Actual: 0.00%



Predicted: 1.91%

Actual: 0.00%

Three (Miller wins)


Predicted: 1.42%

Actual: 0.00%

Two (Miller loses)


Predicted: 98.58%

Actual: 100.00%



Predicted: 0.78%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

January 06, 2011 @ 04:55pm PST

Predictions Made


Most by: K1050 (24 predictions)


Sort by: Down Date

mvguy   •   Wed Dec 29 2010 at 05:52am PST

I’ve started a free poll on whether this market should be cashed out. Once it’s approved, it should be available here (I think):

SneakyPete   •   Wed Dec 22 2010 at 03:55pm PST

Supreme Court rules against Miller:

The Alaska Supreme Court today ruled against Joe Miller on all counts, a decision that leaves his challenge of Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s victory on life support.

“There are no remaining issues raised by Miller that prevent this election from being certified,” the Supreme Court declared in its unanimous ruling.

Murkowski leads Miller by more than 10,000 votes.

Miller’s last chance is in federal court. U.S. District Court Judge Ralph Beistline is giving Miller 48 hours to argue that the federal courts should take up any remaining constitutional issues.

Read /1616612/supreme-court-rules-against-miller.html#ixzz18t73WkJ9

mvguy   •   Wed Nov 17 2010 at 02:55pm PST

Although the Associated Press has declared Murkowski the winner, I’m going to wait until Miller concedes and/or any appeals are exhausted before cashing out the market.

mvguy   •   Tue Nov 02 2010 at 05:00pm PDT

Because this market is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, I’m extending the closing date.

The tally:

Alaska: Joe Miller is waiting for the vote count to be completed
Colorado: Ken Buck lost
Delaware: Christine O’Donnell lost
Kentucky: Rand Paul won
Maryland: Eric Wargotz lost
Nevada: Sharron Angle lost
Utah: Mike Lee won

chelseaboys   •   Thu Sep 02 2010 at 03:22pm PDT

How about Mark “Yeah I really was in the military” Kirk from IL?

mvguy   •   Sat Sep 04 2010 at 03:18pm PDT

Like I said below, the choices were somewhat arbitrary. I found two separate and unrelated articles that listed Miller, Buck, Paul, Angle and Lee as the TP candidates, then added some candidates from the upcoming primary elections. It seemed like as reasonable of an approach as anything.

As far as Kirk goes, I don’t know much about him, but he seems more like a mainstream Republican than anything else, even describing himself on his web site as a “co-chairman of the moderate GOP Tuesday Group,” which doesn’t sound very Tea Party-like to me.


"LIsa will end up pulling in the win.... "

SneakyPete bought Two (Miller loses) at 22.79%
November 04, 2010 @ 09:22pm PDT

historical trend

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