Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
h2. What this market is all about
This market is an experiment. Will people be interested in participating in this type of prediction market? Will the predictions be accurate? How quickly during the operation of the market will accurate predictions become evident? The argument for this type of use of prediction markets can be found in Rick Davies’s M&E "blog":http://mandenews.blogspot.com/
You can post your comments there, or on this inklings.com website, under the "discussion" section above
What are the MDGs?
The eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were agreed at the United Nations Millennium Summit in September 2000 and nearly 190 countries have subsequently signed up to them. The Goals range from halving global poverty and hunger to protecting the environment, improving health and sanitation and tackling illiteracy and discrimination against women. Alongside the Goals, a series of 18 targets were also drawn up to give the international community a number of tangible improvements to aim for within a fixed period of time, and also make it easier for them to measure their progress to date.
You can find a complete listing of the goals, targets, and indicators for MDGs "here":http://devdata.worldbank.org/gmis/mdg/list_of_goals.htm
The third MDG is to “Promote gender equality and empower women” One of the three indicators of the achievement of that goal is the “proportion of seats held by women in national parliament” This goal and indicator has been chosen for use in this experimental use of prediction markets, because it is relatively easy to measure and the data is readily available.
The authoritative source about regions’performance on this indicator will be the World Bank website at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED
This market will run up to September 30th 2007, but the predictions must relate to proportions of women in parliament by December 31st 2007. If the market is let to run any later in the year the winning participants will be those with good historical research skills rather than good capacity to predict. I will seek advice from Word Bank on how soon the results could be declared.
Please note: The region choices provided in this market do not include Western Europe, North America, Japan or Australia and New Zealand.
h2. Useful Links
"The Wikipedia entry on MDGs":http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Development_Goals
The UN Millenium Development Goals "annual report":http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/
"UN Millenium Development Goal Indicators":http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Default.aspx
The World Bank: Millenium Development Goals at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/GMIS/gdmis.do?siteId=2&menuId=LNAV01HOME1
"Gender Equality & the MDGs":http://www.mdgender.net/
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