Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

Will Castro survive through March?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Castro alive

(closed)

Predicted: 99.15%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

March 31, 2007 @ 11:59pm PDT

Predictions Made

64

Most by: cygnusx3 (8 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

itoronto   •   Sat Jan 27 2007 at 05:47pm PST

It may be more useful if it closed later but is based upon when he actually dies, not based upon announcement date – it could be announced later.

Bodger   •   Sat Jan 27 2007 at 07:49pm PST

The length of the market was pretty much my own whim. I chose it by picking a deadline which seemed by my own speculations to be uncertain enough to have some fun with it; If no announcement is forthcoming before April, I’m sure we’ll see more markets.

Given the degree of secrecy around Castro’s condition, it may be near impossible to determine the actual date of his death. I considered waiting for an official press release and then using the date they cited, but concluded that it’s as much fun to guess the timing of the propaganda machine as it is to guess the timing of a medical event.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader

More information about the possible answers

Castro alive