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Which initiatives and referendums on November 2, 2010 ballots will be approved by voters?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Ariz. Prop 106: Against Obamacare

(closed)

Predicted: 74.27%

Actual: 100.00%

Ariz. Prop 107: Ban affirmative action

(closed)

Predicted: 58.91%

Actual: 100.00%

Ark. Issue 1: Grants right to hunt, fish

(closed)

Predicted: 78.59%

Actual: 100.00%

Calif. Prop 23: Suspend pollution rules

(closed)

Predicted: 22.10%

Actual: 0.00%

Colo. Amendment 62: Fetuses are persons

(closed)

Predicted: 36.36%

Actual: 0.00%

Fla. Am. 8: Allows larger class sizes

(closed)

Predicted: 45.02%

Actual: 0.00%

Ill. HJCA 31: Allow recall of governor

(closed)

Predicted: 51.00%

Actual: 100.00%

Kan. Amendment 1: Right to own guns

(closed)

Predicted: 78.25%

Actual: 100.00%

Kan. Question 2: Let mentally ill vote

(closed)

Predicted: 49.51%

Actual: 100.00%

Mass. Question 3: Reduce sales tax

(closed)

Predicted: 35.44%

Actual: 0.00%

Mo. Prop B: Regulates dog breeders

(closed)

Predicted: 55.48%

Actual: 100.00%

Ok. Q. 755: No international/sharia law

(closed)

Predicted: 59.87%

Actual: 100.00%

Ok. Question 751: Make English official

(closed)

Predicted: 79.58%

Actual: 100.00%

Ore. Measure 75: Allow casino

(closed)

Predicted: 39.66%

Actual: 0.00%

R.I. Amendment: Change state's name

(closed)

Predicted: 41.10%

Actual: 0.00%

S.C. Am. 2: Union ballots must be secret

(closed)

Predicted: 58.42%

Actual: 100.00%

Wash. I-1107: No sales tax on candy, pop

(closed)

Predicted: 57.45%

Actual: 100.00%

Discussion

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MFWinAlford   •   Mon Oct 04 2010 at 06:01am PDT

Re AZ 106: What, exactly, is “Obamacare”?

Also, re LA 6, just FYI, “mental illness” is an antiquated term, although maybe not in political circles. Clinicians use terms like “mental impairment” or “mental disability” instead. Oddly, “mental health” seems to be an acceptable term.

mvguy   •   Mon Oct 04 2010 at 06:58am PDT

Re Ariz. 106: Check out the information below and/or the link. It’s the best way I could think of to summarize the measure in two words. Basically, it’s a law that would (if upheld by the courts) make it illegal for the state to participate in the health plan that passed Congress this year. It’s proposed by opponents of “Obamacare” and is similar to measures in a few other states.

Re Kan. 2: PC or not, “mental illness” is the term used in the Kansas Constitution. Its exact wording: “The Legislature may, by law, exclude persons from voting because of mental illness or commitment to a jail or penal institution.” The proposal would strike the words “mental illness or.” You can read more about it here: Mental health group campaigns .

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Oct 04 2010 at 02:10pm PDT

Thanks for the additional info and clarification. I wasn’t criticizing your choice of wording, just wanted to be sure (in the case of AZ) what was being voted on. There is the reality and there is the myth. A good treatment (from the left) of this is in today’s WaPo: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/03/AR2010100302567.html

As to KS (sorry, I had the wrong state), I was just offering a passing observation on how terminology shifts. When I was growing up, we had some Negro families in our Yankee town. Then, they became blacks, and, a few years later, African-Americans. The longer I live, the more confusing it gets.

I have a condition (I am autistic) that used to be considered a “mental illness” (long before I was aware of my autism), and then was shown by science to be a neurological condition. Then, it was classified as a “learning disability” — but now, most people in my community prefer to term it a “learning difference” — our brains work differently and are neither better nor worse (they’re both, really, depending on what you’re talking about).

Anyway, thanks for another interesting market. I’ve established a couple of tentative positions, since I don’t know much about most of these, but I’ll take some time to learn about some of them so that I can form an opinion. This is one of the reasons I like Inkling — it expands my horizons.

mvguy   •   Fri Oct 01 2010 at 08:28pm PDT

I’ve tried to find some of the more interesting ballot measures from most geographical areas. There are plenty more out there — if there are any that anyone would like to see put in the mix, just post a message here or send me an e-mail and I’d be happy to add it.

By the way, the ballot measure that has received perhaps the most attention isn’t listed because it already has its own market: Will California voters legalize marijuana?

wstritt   •   Sat Oct 02 2010 at 08:59am PDT

Ballotpedia.org is interesting site. Others I find interesting are:

Kansas Question 2: Eliminate mental illness as a voting disqualification.
Louisiana Amendment 6: Require 2/3 vote to enact changes to retirement provisions
South Carolina Amendement 2: Allow secret union ballots as fundamental rights to workers
Arkansas Issue 1: Right to hunt, fish and trap wildlife
Missouri Prop B: Adopt new rules for dog-breeders in the state

mvguy   •   Sat Oct 02 2010 at 10:13am PDT

I’ve added them and a few more. I’ve started all of them at $50, so it could be a chance for someone to pick up some inkles, as the outcome on a few of them seems obvious.

Rationales

"I don't think this will get the 60% needed although it might get a majority."

mvguy sold Fla. Am. 8: Allows larger class sizes at 51.50%
October 23, 2010 @ 10:00am PDT

"Bad governors have plagued the state"

peachy255 bought Ill. HJCA 31: Allow recall of governor at 50.00%
October 22, 2010 @ 04:30pm PDT

historical trend

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More information about the possible answers

Ariz. Prop 106: Against Obamacare

Fla. Am. 8: Allows larger class sizes

Ill. HJCA 31: Allow recall of governor

Kan. Question 2: Let mentally ill vote

R.I. Amendment: Change state's name