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Who will win the 2010 Economics Nobel Prize?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Alberto Alesina

(closed)

Predicted: 10.16%

Actual: 0.00%

John H. Moore

(closed)

Predicted: 9.76%

Actual: 0.00%

Kevin M. Murphy

(closed)

Predicted: 10.58%

Actual: 0.00%

Martin Weitzman and William Nordhaus

(closed)

Predicted: 3.49%

Actual: 0.00%

Nobuhiro Kiyotaki

(closed)

Predicted: 9.57%

Actual: 0.00%

Richard Thaler joint with Robert Schille

(closed)

Predicted: 3.57%

Actual: 0.00%

Someone else

(closed)

Predicted: 52.84%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

October 10, 2010 @ 11:59pm PDT

Predictions Made

53

Most by: job (3 predictions)

Discussion

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dbfclark   •   Mon Oct 11 2010 at 05:23am PDT

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/12/business/economy/12nobel.html?_r=1&hp

Looks like a big win for “someone else” — Peter Diamond was the only name I knew.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Oct 07 2010 at 09:06am PDT

Here’s an interesting commentary in today’s WSJ on handicapping the Economics prize:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/10/07/pregaming-the-economics-nobel-dont-bet-on-it/?KEYWORDS=nobel

One alternative way to avoid having to pair people would have been to set this up as multiple-choice market, with each person listed trading separately. If one person wins it all, the numbers would (with hindsight) have to have added up to 100, if a pair wins, 200, if it is split 3 ways (does that ever happen?), 300. That unknown would add a bit more spice to the market, but maybe some would find that annoying!

roobaron   •   Wed Oct 06 2010 at 04:32pm PDT

Having just checked another prediction market. I can see the conundrum.
i.e. Thaler and Schille as joint rather than separate.

Based on past experience with Inkling. Any other combination not listed will be covered by “Someone else”

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Oct 07 2010 at 09:00am PDT

Shouldn’t that be Schiller?

roobaron   •   Wed Oct 06 2010 at 04:19pm PDT

I will treat any other combination as “Someone Else”

simon_   •   Wed Oct 06 2010 at 03:32pm PDT

Similarly… how would you treat it if only one of a pair wins?

dbfclark   •   Wed Oct 06 2010 at 11:37am PDT

How will you treat a joint wins? Kiyotaki-Moore in particular seems likely…

Rationales

"Fama"

u$Hu6ume bought Someone else at 24.39%
October 06, 2010 @ 07:43pm PDT

"Kahneman already won and Schiller is an equally annoying Paul Krugman waiting to happen."

Gth!ah4a sold Richard Thaler joint with Robert Schille at 4.96%
October 06, 2010 @ 06:00pm PDT

"yes"

Xekeg#8c bought Someone else at 21.42%
October 06, 2010 @ 11:28am PDT

historical trend

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