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How many Democrats were elected to the U.S. House in the Nov. 2, 2010, elections?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

170 or fewer

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

171-175

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

176-180

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

181-185

(closed)

Predicted: 0.38%

Actual: 0.00%

186-190

(closed)

Predicted: 2.88%

Actual: 0.00%

191-195

(closed)

Predicted: 97.12%

Actual: 100.00%

196-200

(closed)

Predicted: 7.06%

Actual: 0.00%

201-205

(closed)

Predicted: 0.13%

Actual: 0.00%

206-210

(closed)

Predicted: 0.14%

Actual: 0.00%

211-215

(closed)

Predicted: 0.06%

Actual: 0.00%

216-220

(closed)

Predicted: 0.10%

Actual: 0.00%

221-225

(closed)

Predicted: 0.07%

Actual: 0.00%

226-230

(closed)

Predicted: 0.03%

Actual: 0.00%

231-235

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

236-240

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

241-245

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

246-250

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

More than 250

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

December 03, 2010 @ 11:00am PST

Predictions Made

93

Most by: wstritt (58 predictions)

Discussion

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SneakyPete   •   Tue Nov 23 2010 at 04:24pm PST

N.Y. Democrat Dan Maffei concedes House race
Buerkle’s victory means Republicans have picked up at least 63 House seats in their new majority.
The GOP now has 242 seats, Democrats have 190 and there are three undecided races.http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/index
This question is ending up to be one of a “Nail Biter”

mvguy   •   Tue Nov 02 2010 at 08:25pm PDT

Tally as of Nov. 16:

Seats won by Democrats: 190

Remaining potential Democratic seats:
CA11 McNerney
CA20 Costa
NY1 Bishop
NY25 Maffei
TX27 Ortiz

Sorry, SneakyPete: I deleted your comment inadvertently when I tried to edit mine.

SneakyPete   •   Fri Nov 05 2010 at 10:24am PDT

No Problem…. This is going to be a hard call to make, with so many races, neck and neck.

mvguy   •   Fri Nov 05 2010 at 09:51pm PDT

I don’t have to wait for all of them to settle before settling this market. If Democrats win three of the remaining eight. they’ll have their 191. Right now they lead in four of the eight. I think the market’s priced about right, but you never know …

By the way, current results are here:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/house/big-board

In addition to the undecided races listed above (based on New York Times and the Associated Press), some media are saying that NC2 is unresolved. The Republican candidate is ahead by less than 1%, and there’s a possibility of a recount.

Rationales

"The closer we get to the election, more Democrats we will be seeing. losing their seats in the House."

SneakyPete bought 196-200 at 14.46%
October 23, 2010 @ 10:52am PDT

historical trend

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