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Which party's nominee will win the US Presidential election in 2008?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Constitution Party

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Democratic Party

(closed)

Predicted: 99.94%

Actual: 100.00%

Green Party

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Libertarian Party

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Other

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Republican Party

(closed)

Predicted: 0.06%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 04, 2008 @ 11:13pm PST

Predictions Made

1064

Most by: K1050 (360 predictions)

Discussion

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vintermann   •   Thu Jun 21 2007 at 12:50am PDT

Bloomberg’s recent maneuvering means that the odds of “other” should probably be significantly higher, I’d say.

onemike   •   Tue Sep 18 2007 at 07:29pm PDT

Nah. Bloomberg couldn’t win without major party support, and even with party support it seems unlikely.

Ask yourself, when was the last time a politician who had not been either VP, Senator, or Governor able to obtain even 20 percent of the vote in a presidential election?

Ross Perot obtained only 19 percent of the vote in 1992 without major party support; before him – Wendell Wilkie attained 40 percent of the vote in 1940 running as a Republican against FDR.

PerfectHandle   •   Tue Feb 06 2007 at 01:29pm PST

Rationales

"Arbitrage"

acollard sold Democratic Party at 81.63%
September 24, 2008 @ 11:53am PDT

historical trend

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More information about the possible answers

Constitution Party

Democratic Party

Green Party

Libertarian Party

Other

Republican Party