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Which will be the top 20 films of 2011 at the domestic box office?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked

(closed)

Predicted: 99.03%

Actual: 100.00%

Bad Teacher

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Battle: Los Angeles

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Beastly

(closed)

Predicted: 0.52%

Actual: 0.00%

Bridesmaids

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

Captain America: The First Avenger

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

Cars 2

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

Conan the Barbarian

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Contagion

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Cowboys & Aliens

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Crazy, Stupid, Love.

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules

(closed)

Predicted: 0.22%

Actual: 0.00%

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

(closed)

Predicted: 0.11%

Actual: 0.00%

Fast Five

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

Friends with Benefits

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

Fright Night

(closed)

Predicted: 0.14%

Actual: 0.00%

Gnomeo and Juliet

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Green Hornet

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Green Lantern

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Hall Pass

(closed)

Predicted: 1.29%

Actual: 0.00%

Happy Feet Two

(closed)

Predicted: 1.07%

Actual: 0.00%

Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows 2

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

Hop

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Horrible Bosses

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Hugo

(closed)

Predicted: 0.08%

Actual: 0.00%

I Am Number Four

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

J. Edgar

(closed)

Predicted: 0.14%

Actual: 0.00%

Jack and Jill

(closed)

Predicted: 0.38%

Actual: 0.00%

Just Go With It

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Justin Bieber: Never Say Never

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Kung Fu Panda 2

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

Limitless

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Mars Needs Moms

(closed)

Predicted: 0.47%

Actual: 0.00%

Mission Impossible/Ghost Protocol

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

Moneyball

(closed)

Predicted: 0.11%

Actual: 0.00%

No Strings Attached

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Paranormal Activity 3

(closed)

Predicted: 0.20%

Actual: 0.00%

Paul

(closed)

Predicted: 2.11%

Actual: 0.00%

Pirates of the Caribbean 4

(closed)

Predicted: 98.99%

Actual: 100.00%

Poltergeist

(closed)

Predicted: 0.30%

Actual: 0.00%

Puss in Boots

(closed)

Predicted: 99.78%

Actual: 100.00%

Rango

(closed)

Predicted: 0.11%

Actual: 0.00%

Real Steel

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Rio

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

Sanctum

(closed)

Predicted: 0.31%

Actual: 0.00%

Scream 4

(closed)

Predicted: 4.19%

Actual: 0.00%

Season of the Witch

(closed)

Predicted: 0.59%

Actual: 0.00%

Sherlock Holmes 2

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

Source Code

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

Spy Kids: All the Time in the World

(closed)

Predicted: 0.47%

Actual: 0.00%

Sucker Punch

(closed)

Predicted: 1.10%

Actual: 0.00%

Super 8

(closed)

Predicted: 5.38%

Actual: 0.00%

The Adjustment Bureau

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

The Adventures of Tintin

(closed)

Predicted: 0.27%

Actual: 0.00%

The Change-Up

(closed)

Predicted: 0.82%

Actual: 0.00%

The Descendants

(closed)

Predicted: 0.30%

Actual: 0.00%

The Dilemma

(closed)

Predicted: 1.02%

Actual: 0.00%

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

(closed)

Predicted: 1.21%

Actual: 0.00%

The Hangover Part II

(closed)

Predicted: 99.44%

Actual: 100.00%

The Help

(closed)

Predicted: 99.95%

Actual: 100.00%

The Lincoln Lawyer

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

The Lion King

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

The Muppets

(closed)

Predicted: 1.70%

Actual: 0.00%

The Smurfs

(closed)

Predicted: 99.91%

Actual: 100.00%

The Three Musketeers

(closed)

Predicted: 0.73%

Actual: 0.00%

Thor

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn 1

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family

(closed)

Predicted: 0.10%

Actual: 0.00%

Unknown

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

War Horse

(closed)

Predicted: 0.15%

Actual: 0.00%

Winnie the Pooh

(closed)

Predicted: 0.64%

Actual: 0.00%

X-Men: First Class

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

Your Highness

(closed)

Predicted: 2.84%

Actual: 0.00%

Zookeeper

(closed)

Predicted: 2.18%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

March 31, 2012 @ 08:00am PDT

Predictions Made

2232

Most by: ChloeBurns (560 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

EdG1975   •   Sat Feb 11 2012 at 03:00pm PST

You are right. Cashing out and closing the question is the best thing. There is not any reason to believe that any movie will pass Alvin.

mvguy   •   Sat Feb 11 2012 at 08:32am PST

Note to participants: Unless I get objections from participants, I’m planning on cashing out this market during the coming week. I don’t see any indication that any of the Oscar nominees will get enough Oscar bounce to propel them past last year’s “Alvin” incarnation. (Of course, if I’m wrong, I can always reverse the cashout. But I’d be very surprised if that were to happen.)

EdG1975   •   Mon Jan 02 2012 at 02:50am PST

MI and Sherlock Holmes are in the top20, and won’t fall out of it. Except 2 of 3 places after new years weekend the top 20 seems clear. Alvin, Tintin, Girl with the dragon tattoo might reach top20.

EdG1975   •   Fri Dec 23 2011 at 02:28am PST

still a great question and the answers are still unknown.

Looking forward to the 2012 version…

mvguy   •   Fri Dec 23 2011 at 09:19am PST

Yes, I’m quite surprised by that at this time there are still six movies that the market hasn’t completely settled on. I agree with most of the market assessments, though, except that “Mission Impossible” and “Dragon Tattoo” may be rated too high (I’ve been trying to decide if I should sell my shares of the former). I think things will become clearer once the New Year’s weekend numbers are in, and hopefully soon I’ll be able to cash out a few more films and reduce the number still in play.

mvguy   •   Mon Dec 26 2011 at 01:21pm PST

After seeing Monday’s tentative numbers, I’ll take back what I said about “MI4”; it’ll end up north of $150M. It doesn’t deserve it, though. I saw the film this weekend and, after seeing all the positive reviews, was seriously disappointed. The special effects were top-notch, but they can’t carry the film if there’s nothing done to develop the characters.

mvguy   •   Sun Sep 18 2011 at 02:00pm PDT

A clarification: Although I don’t consider the re-release of “The Lion King” to be a 2011 movie, as long as it is listed on this page at Box Office Mojo it will be included in this market.

And a note: As long as “Moneyball” is considered to be a contender for the Oscar best picture, I won’t be cashing it out until it’s clear what difference the nomination makes. The same goes for “Hugo” and “War Horse.”

DDetlefsen   •   Wed Aug 03 2011 at 09:59pm PDT

How is a movie like hangover part 2 already closed at 100%? How arevwe positive today it will be in the top 20 with 7 months to go,? I agree it’s likely but to close the stock now? Please explain.

mvguy   •   Wed Aug 03 2011 at 10:13pm PDT

The rules (see the bottom of the page) say that if a movie grosses over $250 million, that it will automatically cash out at $100, even if there are more than 20 such films (there won’t be). “Hangover” has already passed $253 million.

mvguy   •   Fri Apr 15 2011 at 10:47pm PDT

Talk about a dismal box office so far this year. If this market had run for 2010, a movie could have made the top 20 with $130 million. I used to think “Rango” was overpriced in this market, but now I’m not so sure.

mvguy   •   Thu Nov 24 2011 at 06:25am PST

I’ll take that back. Now, if the market is correct, a film will need more than $140 million to crack the top 20. Meanwhile, total box office will be flat at best. Go figure.

wineonline   •   Wed Mar 23 2011 at 01:42am PDT

Pirates of the Caribbean, I guess. Story-wise and cast-wise, this film would be a pleaser.

EdG1975   •   Fri Mar 18 2011 at 01:45pm PDT

nice question

AxmxZ   •   Thu Feb 24 2011 at 09:43am PST

Is the King’s Speech not on the list, or am I just not seeing it?

mvguy   •   Thu Feb 24 2011 at 10:01am PST

This market includes only films that open in 2011. “The King’s Speech” opened in 2010.

BobM   •   Sun Jan 16 2011 at 04:17pm PST

Any chance of getting Sanctum added?
http://www.sanctummovie.com/

mvguy   •   Sun Jan 16 2011 at 04:29pm PST

An excellent chance.

ChloeBurns   •   Thu Dec 30 2010 at 10:25am PST

This market is set to expire 3/31/2011. Is that correct? Shouldn’t the expiration date be in 2012?

mvguy   •   Thu Dec 30 2010 at 10:37am PST

No, yes. Thanks for letting me know!

chelseaboys   •   Thu Dec 30 2010 at 04:18pm PST

So, is the correct closing date 3-31-2011 or 2012? I am confused by your above answer but no change to the market closing date.

mvguy   •   Sun Jan 02 2011 at 04:13pm PST

Sorry about the market closing date. I thought I had changed it to 2012 (which was my original intent), but I must have clicked in the wrong place or something.

ChloeBurns   •   Thu Dec 30 2010 at 04:01pm PST

Some intriguing changes to this year’s box office derby. Thank you, mvguy, for running this market!

In 2010, I shorted end-of-year titles such as Gulliver’s Travels and Little Fockers due to the improbability of these films hitting the $200MM mark in just one or two weeks. [It was only clear in retrospect that these films will struggle to earn $100MM over a lifetime let alone in the opening weeks.] The new closing date requires players to focus on pure box office potential rather than calendar placement.

Including the top twenty instead of the top ten films is the other interesting wrinkle. This sets the goalpost at or around $140MM. I would add that it increases the likelyhood that a box office surprise not on the current list will finish in the money. I estimate fair value for the original list of titles at $1850 or $1900.

mvguy   •   Sun Jan 02 2011 at 04:22pm PST

Yeah, my reason for going for 20 is that it increases the chances of there being an out-of-nowhere winner. Also, the totals are bunched up more around that point (right now, for example, there’s only $2M separating the No. 18 and No. 20 films for 2010, and “Little Fockers” could surpass them), so there could be more movies that are worth betting on one way or another for a longer time and closer to the market closing.

wstritt   •   Wed Dec 29 2010 at 08:40am PST

Mars needs Moms? Really?

mvguy   •   Wed Dec 29 2010 at 09:00am PST

You never know what might be a surprise hit. :)

Rationales

"30"

bane1969 sold The Smurfs at 98.27%
January 07, 2012 @ 07:58pm PST

"100"

mvguy sold Puss in Boots at 59.78%
October 30, 2011 @ 03:39pm PDT

"I just saw the trailer. It looked boring."

mvguy sold Moneyball at 8.60%
September 21, 2011 @ 10:51am PDT

"100"

mvguy sold Contagion at 0.51%
September 11, 2011 @ 08:58am PDT

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historical trend

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