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What will be the total value (worth) of the top 10 players on this site on April 30, 2011?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED VALUE

TODAY

Sum of Highest Worth Portfolios

(closed)

Predicted: 27,200.00

Actual: 27,200.00

  • refunded

Question ends

April 28, 2011 @ 01:31am PDT

Predictions Made

5

Most by: Twins Auditor (2 predictions)

Discussion

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MFWinAlford   •   Mon Jan 10 2011 at 08:39am PST

Thanks for your understanding, everyone. Just trying to do my part to provide interesting questions for those who like this sort of insider baseball. I’m new at this scaling thingy, as you can see. Live and learn!

sbalen   •   Mon Jan 10 2011 at 08:25am PST

The total value of the top 10 portfolio’s is near 100.000.000 right now. If the scale is 100 to one this stock should trade north of a million a piece, were the scale 1000 to 1 as in your example it would still be 100.000 (i’m long, btw)

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Jan 10 2011 at 08:28am PST

Yes, you’re right. My bad. I should have set the scale to 1,000 — I can see that now. I think the fairest thing is to refund this market and resubmit it. Any objections?

Tom501   •   Mon Jan 10 2011 at 08:36am PST

Sounds fair enough, just hope I’m at my desk when it re-opens.

Twins Auditor   •   Mon Jan 10 2011 at 08:35am PST

I think it makes sense, even though I made a fortune.

sbalen   •   Mon Jan 10 2011 at 08:29am PST

Fair enough…

Twins Auditor   •   Mon Jan 10 2011 at 06:05am PST

What is the scale? On the off chance that it is only 12,200 to start, I bought 100 shares (and will buy a lot more) depending on your answer.

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Jan 10 2011 at 06:44am PST

Thank you for asking. It is 100 to 1. In other words, a price here of 10,000 (for example) would be equal to $10 million.

I wanted to put this in the original description and forgot, then couldn’t find a way to edit it, so was going to put it in a comment once it was published, but you beat me to it!

Twins Auditor   •   Mon Jan 10 2011 at 07:42am PST

I don’t follow…So, how would 100 to 1 be the same as 10 million to 10,000? If it were 100 to 1, than 10,000 would only be $1 million.

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Jan 10 2011 at 08:21am PST

Yes, it is confusing, but that’s the Inkling lingo. Here is their explanation:

‘Even though you may be trying to determine a number in the thousands, millions, or billions, it’s a good idea to still set the stock price below $100 to keep it affordable.
To make this clearer for your traders if you are trying to predict a large number, we have a “scale” you can set. For example, if you are asking the question: “How many cars and minivans will Chrysler sell this year?” The answer is probably in the millions. If you set your starting price at 1,000,000, no one will be able to afford to buy the stock. Instead, you could set it at 100 and use a scale of 10,000. This means traders will initially pay $100/share, but will be told “a stock price of $100 means a prediction of 1,000,000.”’

In this case, I set the “scale” to 100, and the initial price to 122, which came out as 12,200. My intention is that that is equal to 12,200,000 which, I agree with you, is actually a multiple of 1,000.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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Sum of Highest Worth Portfolios