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When will Ali Abdullah Saleh cease being president of Yemen?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

2013

(closed)

Predicted: 0.50%

Actual: 0.00%

2014 or later

(closed)

Predicted: 0.50%

Actual: 0.00%

April 1-15, 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 1.09%

Actual: 0.00%

April 16-30, 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

August 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.20%

Actual: 0.00%

December 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.50%

Actual: 0.00%

February 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 1.06%

Actual: 0.00%

January 2012

(closed)

Predicted: 0.19%

Actual: 0.00%

July 1-15, 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.55%

Actual: 0.00%

July 16-31, 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.76%

Actual: 0.00%

June 1-15, 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.31%

Actual: 0.00%

June 16-30, 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.28%

Actual: 0.00%

March 1-15, 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.87%

Actual: 0.00%

March 16-31, 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 1.78%

Actual: 0.00%

May 1-15, 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.74%

Actual: 0.00%

May 16-31, 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.48%

Actual: 0.00%

November 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.65%

Actual: 0.00%

October 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.94%

Actual: 0.00%

September 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.86%

Actual: 0.00%

any month in 2012 except January

(closed)

Predicted: 98.99%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

January 01, 2014 @ 08:27am PST

Predictions Made

5170

Most by: MFWinAlford (1863 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

onedave   •   Tue Feb 21 2012 at 06:46pm PST

Al-Hadi won today’s presidential election. Now, we need to see when he will be sworn in.

wstritt   •   Mon Jan 09 2012 at 06:01pm PST

5105 trades in this market. I wonder if that is a record?

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Jan 09 2012 at 06:14pm PST

London Bridge   •   Mon Jan 09 2012 at 09:51am PST

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Dec 26 2011 at 10:42am PST

This article suggests we may see the backside of Saleh within the next few days or weeks. He has requested “medical treatment in the US” although he has also said he is leaving for political reasons. And, there is mention of him going somewhere else “on his way” to the US (or, presumably, anyone else who will take him).

So the situation is far from settled, but my read is that if he leaves the country, it will be with no intention of returning, and would count as going into exile (the 3rd condition that would end this market). So, it would be good to get a “pre-ruling” if that is possible, from onedave!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/20111226123336363104.html

ecotax   •   Mon Dec 26 2011 at 03:32pm PST

Interesting situation, and a good question. He said he would come back from Saudi Arabia, and, against all odds and common sense if you ask me, he did. He’s much more vague this time. Maybe he doesn’t even know himself yet.

onedave   •   Sat Dec 31 2011 at 12:02pm PST

I am going to go with what the mainstream media says on this one. If they refer to Saleh as “exiled,” I will cash out this question. However, traveling to the US solely for medical treatment would not be considered as “exile.” If he says that he will return to Yemen, we will trust him. If he dies or is arrested while in another country before he rules out a return, I will cash out at that time.

ecotax   •   Sun Jan 22 2012 at 12:52pm PST

The official word now seems to be that, “God willing, I will leave for treatment in the United States and I will return to Sanaa as head of the General People’s Congress party”.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/01/20121221525562988.html

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Dec 31 2011 at 12:19pm PST

Okay, seems fair. Of course, there are many other possibilities, so let’s hope that whatever happens will be clear for the purposes of this market.

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Dec 24 2011 at 06:05pm PST

EdG1975   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 03:03pm PST

Thx, but for me will the resignation make a big difference in inklies. With a resignation in november or december I will be going towards Tom501 in the profit question until end of year

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Nov 27 2011 at 06:33am PST

Well, he has “resigned” in effect, but is still President until 2/21/12 as it looks now (see the discussion above), so I guess you’ll have to find somewhere else to make a killing!

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Dec 02 2011 at 02:03pm PST

Or, maybe not! The whole deal could come undone, and then all bets are off!

“Several killed in Yemen’s Taiz city
Former minister designated to lead interim government warns power pact could collapse if killing in Taiz does not stop.”

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/2011122111944508927.html

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 02:57pm PST

Well, all of this is interesting and fun speculation, but as far as Inkling goes, I’m almost completely indifferent. I expect to see a profit of around 1.3 million inkles whenever this market is cashed out. I hope everyone does as well, and thanks to everyone for making it a fun market!

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Nov 27 2011 at 08:20am PST

Revised estimate: if this market does pay out in February, as now seems likely, I will record a profit of 1.5 million, and my worth will become less negative by an additional 2 million. And that’s just a guess; as much as I’ve tried to understand this accounting system, I’ll be damned if I do! So, it’ll be interesting to see how it works out…

job   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 02:39pm PST

The way I see it is that as long as Saleh is the President (no matter how mutch power he has), you can’t say Saleh ceased being President. So if he stays President untill the elections, February 2012 will be date he ceases!

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 04:24pm PST

Job, the way you “see it” and the way it happens may be two different things. You should be aware that these “agreements” aren’t worth the paper they are printed on. Anything can happen. The day he ceases to be President will be the day he is no longer President, not a day earlier or later, despite all the “agreements” in the world!

onedave   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 04:53pm PST

As long as he still holds the title of president, I won’t cash out the question if he relinquishes power. But we need to see what happens when he flies to New York for medical treatment. If he says that he has no intention to return, should we treat that as going into exile?

ecotax   •   Sun Nov 27 2011 at 04:01am PST

Contrary to my expectations, he did return from Saudi Arabia. I think that unless he does state he’s not returning, we must assume he may. You already stated that the fact that his presidency is, in practice, only an honorary title now, does not mean that he’s a not a president anymore. So if nothing changes, I think we should consider him being the president till the elections.
I see no reason for him to explicitly state that he’s not coming back – there’s nothing to gain from that. But in the unexpected case that he will do so, then yes, in my opinion we should consider him to be in exile, and thus no longer president.

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Nov 27 2011 at 05:21am PST

I agree. If he declares himself in exile (i.e. states no intention to return), or if he dies, he is no longer President. Meanwhile, “SANAA (Reuters) – Yemen’s vice president called presidential elections for February 21” according to http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/12088062/yemen-presidential-election-set-for-feb-21/

job   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 11:21am PST

November 23, 2011Yemen’s Saleh signs deal to give up power
Hadi is to form a new government with the opposition and call an early presidential election within three months. Saleh will keep his title until a successor is elected.
http://www.realclearworld.com/news/reuters/international/2011/Nov/23/yemen_s_saleh_signs_deal_to_give_up_power.html

job   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 06:47am PST

Under the deal, Mr. Saleh would retain his title until new elections in three months and receive immunity from prosecution.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/24/world/middleeast/yemen-saleh-transfer-power-deal-saudi-arabia.html

ecotax   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 09:23am PST

Looks like someone bought a lot December shares without reading the small print.

EdG1975   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 02:03pm PST

went long before the small prints just before there was official news. I knew I won’t near a computer at least 14 hours and still be awake.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 01:41pm PST

The way I read the “fine print” as you put it is that November is almost entirely out of the question — he will “leave office” in 30 days. By then, December is almost over, so December is unlikely, but not impossible. January is very likely because there will be continued pressure to reach a deal. Sometime in 2012 later than January is the latest this will happen. As always, these “deals” are slippery, and we won’t know until it happens. Since he is seeking medical treatment in NY, he may be in worse shape that we know, and he could die of natural causes (as could any human being!) at any time. So, I was very skeptical when the “any month” stock rose above 90, and I bought some January as a hedge.

“The deal signed on Wednesday, will see Saleh leave office in 30 days, making way for Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi, the Yemeni vice-president, to negotiate a power transfer with the opposition in return for a promise of immunity from prosecution.

As part of the deal Saleh will retain the honorary title of president, yet his deputy is expected to form and preside over a national unity government before presidential elections take place within 90 days."

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/11/2011112355040101606.html

ChloeBurns   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 06:09am PST

This market asks a specific question. When will Saleh cease to be president? If he does indeed sign the agreement, he will hand over power to his vice president within 30 days. Anyone who buys November at this price is going to be very disappointed.

job   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 06:35am PST

The question is if he stays president untill he handed over power to the vice president (=Dec 2011), or will he remain president after handing over power untill the elections are held (= Febr. 2012)!

ChloeBurns   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 07:33am PST

Shorting November is a good play under either scenario.

job   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 01:20am PST

If…. Saleh signs, he will stay another 90 days president. So then he will cease being president on February 20 2012!

job   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 01:16am PST

Wed, 23 Nov 2011, 06:05 GMT+3 – Yemen
Speaking on President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s arrival in Saudi Arabia earlier today, Al Jazeera’s special correspondent in Sanaa says there is still scepticism about Saleh’s signing of a GCC-brokered deal to hand over power.

Our correspondent also reports that people within Saleh’s own party have been pushing the president not to sign the deal, which would technically keep Al Abdullah Saleh as president for 90 days until elections could be held early in 2012. Power would however, be handed over to the president’s deputy under the terms of the deal as set out earlier this week.
http://blogs.aljazeera.net/liveblog/yemen-nov-23-2011-0905

ecotax   •   Sun Oct 09 2011 at 04:23am PDT

job   •   Sat Oct 01 2011 at 12:43am PDT

September 2011 can be closed.

ecotax   •   Sun Sep 25 2011 at 10:29am PDT

And he’s “carrying the dove of peace and the olive branch” and (yet again) willing to transfer power.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/09/201192516385569489.html

ecotax   •   Fri Sep 23 2011 at 01:03am PDT

Best Record   •   Tue Aug 16 2011 at 05:42pm PDT

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/08/201181615544206414.html

“Saleh said he was willing to transfer power to his vice-president if the opposition pulls armed tribal fighters from the streets and the opposition ends its street rallies, the Associated Press news agency reported.”

Or, if the sun rises in the west…

ecotax   •   Mon Jun 27 2011 at 10:34am PDT

Saleh will appear on TV soon: http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/2011626201428809641.html
What puzzles me in this announcement is sentence: “His appearance will not be as the media expects it.”.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Jun 29 2011 at 05:25pm PDT

Well, as far as I can tell, it hasn’t happened yet, despite the passage of the “48 hours” — I’m assuming they are warning people that he was disfigured by his injuries.

Saudi Arabia is calling the shots (or is trying to, anyway), and the US seems to be afraid to do anything to alienate the Saudis. Very Machiavellian. It’s only a “matter of time” before he goes, but who knows how much time?!

onedave   •   Tue Jun 07 2011 at 08:31am PDT

There is also considerable doubt about his health. Government officials claimed that he suffered minor injuries in last week’s attack. Meanwhile, there were reports that his injuries were serious.

ecotax   •   Sat Jun 11 2011 at 07:15am PDT

His injuries must be serious. Firstly, going abroad clearly makes a return more difficult, so there probably was a purely medical reason to do so. Secondly, he wasn’t shown in the TV broadcast shortly after the attack, they only had his voice.

job   •   Tue Jun 07 2011 at 07:11am PDT

Saleh’s son and several of his nephews remain in Yemen, and they control powerful branches of the military and intelligence services, giving Saleh a continued grip on power even in his absence.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201167102635229569.html

SneakyPete   •   Mon Jun 06 2011 at 03:11pm PDT

Not knowing the seriousness of his injuries, he may have to remain for a while longer in the Saudi capital of Riyadh. If so, his reign may last a bit longer, than June 15th.

mvguy   •   Tue Jun 07 2011 at 08:22am PDT

His days are numbered, but I agree it could take more than a week before this thing comes to an end.

job   •   Tue Jun 07 2011 at 08:42am PDT

I will not be surprised if he returns within 10 days, and then maybe one month or more before the final collaps of his power! So July or August could be the right answer to this question!

job   •   Mon Jun 06 2011 at 09:44am PDT

Saleh’s trip to Riyadh, the Saudi capital, has triggered speculations over his rule and Yemen’s political future. There had been scenes of wild celebrations in Sanaa as Saleh’s opponents viewed his departure as the fall of his regime.

But Abdu al-Janadi, Yemen’s deputy information minister, insisted the president would return to assume his duties after his treatment.

“Saleh will come back. Saleh is in good health, and he may give up the authority one day but it has to be in a constitutional way,” he said.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/20116644232347525.html

job   •   Sun Jun 05 2011 at 08:45am PDT

So far, no intention to go in exile! It’s cheap now, to buy some “June 16-30 -stocks”

job   •   Sun Jun 05 2011 at 08:40am PDT

But Saudi officials said Saleh was in the capital, Riyadh, for treatment only and that the visit was not a political one.

And a ruling party official, Tareq al-Shami, told Reuters news agency that the president would be back in Sanaa within days.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/20116583530542599.html

onedave   •   Sat Jun 04 2011 at 07:21pm PDT

Saleh is in Saudi Arabia for treatment of wounds received during an attack on the presidential palace.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43277769/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Jun 05 2011 at 01:09am PDT

I assume this does not meet your third condition, or you would have cashed out. If he does not return, how will you determine that the condition is met? As of the date of an announcement of some kind?

“Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh is in the Saudi capital Riyadh to ostensibly seek medical treatment for injuries sustained during an attack on his presidential palace, but his departure from Sanaa has raised speculations over whether he is gone for good.”

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/20116543035728416.html

onedave   •   Sun Jun 05 2011 at 06:56am PDT

I will determine that the condition is met when an official announcement is made or most news sources agree that he has gone into exile or died.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed May 25 2011 at 02:44am PDT

Saleh has backed down again. Street fighting has resumed. Will he win this game of chicken, or is he delusional? There doesn’t seem to be agreement…

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/201152581852254396.html

Rationales

"He may hang in there for a while....."

SneakyPete bought June 16-30, 2011 at 2.92%
June 05, 2011 @ 05:36pm PDT

historical trend

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