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When will a shutdown of the U.S. federal government first occur in 2011?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

April

(closed)

Predicted: 1.56%

Actual: 0.00%

August or September

(closed)

Predicted: 0.57%

Actual: 0.00%

December

(closed)

Predicted: 4.71%

Actual: 0.00%

July

(closed)

Predicted: 0.40%

Actual: 0.00%

June

(closed)

Predicted: 1.01%

Actual: 0.00%

March

(closed)

Predicted: 1.50%

Actual: 0.00%

May

(closed)

Predicted: 1.12%

Actual: 0.00%

No shutdown occurs in 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 95.29%

Actual: 100.00%

November

(closed)

Predicted: 0.78%

Actual: 0.00%

October

(closed)

Predicted: 0.62%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

December 31, 2011 @ 08:59pm PST

Predictions Made

351

Most by: SneakyPete (71 predictions)

Discussion

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mvguy   •   Fri Jul 22 2011 at 10:36pm PDT
I wish I didn’t have to end the market this way, but this is what happened: “Efforts to avert a shutdown of the Federal Aviation Administration failed Friday … ensuring that nearly 4,000 people will be temporarily out of work and federal airline ticket taxes will be suspended. Lawmakers were unable to resolve a partisan dispute over an extension of the agency’s operating authority, which expired at midnight Friday. … Unable to agree on new long-term funding legislation for the agency, Congress has kept the FAA operating through a series of 20 short-term extension bills. The extensions had been routine until this week.” http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2011-07-23-faa-aviation-shutdown_n.htm
midnightlightning   •   Sat Jul 23 2011 at 05:29am PDT
FAA != Government, even though they have “Federal” in the name.
AxmxZ   •   Fri Jul 22 2011 at 10:39pm PDT
I’m surprised that this counts. Had I known I would have played differently.
mvguy   •   Fri Jul 22 2011 at 10:43pm PDT
I’m rethinking this. I hate it when things like this happen, because I don’t intend to play a game of “gotcha.” Let’s see what people say; I can always reverse the cashout or refund the market.

In this case, on the one hand, there’s no question that there’s a partial shutdown due to lack of spending authority. On the other hand, the problem is due less to lack of a budget bill and more to a dispute over how certain money should be raised and/or spent.

mvguy   •   Sat Jul 23 2011 at 07:14am PDT
I’ve slept on this and decided to reverse the cashout on these grounds: 1) This isn’t the type of event for which the market was written nor for which participants we basing their decisions on. 2) The reason for the FAA closure has nothing to do with the agency having a budget, one of the terms of the market. It does have a budget; what it doesn’t have is operating authority.

A final note to market participants: I suggest keeping in mind that one of the terms of the market takes into account the ongoing dispute over the federal deficit. If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, and if any agency suspends a part of its operations, such as if Social Security checks are delayed (for example), that would count as a shutdown. In my view, the market is underrating the chance of something like that happening in August, but I hope I’m wrong.

fdunlap   •   Tue Apr 19 2011 at 09:36am PDT
I’m thinking it will happen in September, oh, wait there is no September this year. Should I pick August or October then?
mvguy   •   Thu May 05 2011 at 07:30am PDT
How did I leave out September? That was dumb. The problem is that if I just add the month, it will mess up the percentages. So if there are no objections in the next 24 hours or so, I’ll change “August” to “August or September.” If there’s a shutdown because of lack of borrowing authority, it would probably happen in one of those months. October starts the new fiscal year, so I want to keep it separate.
SneakyPete   •   Tue Apr 19 2011 at 11:45am PDT
Never happen in either month. Based on the last yearly budget events, we can expect to see it some time mid – 2012, or later. :)
SneakyPete   •   Thu Mar 31 2011 at 06:16pm PDT
It appears, that a meeting of “The Political Minds” is taking place, as we speak. V.P. Biden it seems as taken an interest in the budget situations. Will it make a difference? Will President Obama initate steps, and get involved, with only 7days to go? We shall see.
SneakyPete   •   Thu Mar 10 2011 at 06:20am PST
The “Game of Chicken” goes on. However, neither side wants the government to be shutdown, as far as I can see. Time will tell.

Rationales

"With Election Fevr in full swing, no elected offical will want to vote for, a shutdpwn."

SneakyPete sold December at 6.74%
December 15, 2011 @ 11:54am PST

"based on advice being given in the agencies"

Ahh3j!as bought April at 21.10%
March 27, 2011 @ 05:26am PDT

" March: Absolutely"

pj$2Phae bought March at 12.04%
March 04, 2011 @ 06:55am PST

"The bill the House is voting on tonight would get a veto for sure."

mvguy sold No shutdown occurs in 2011 at 33.41%
February 18, 2011 @ 08:16pm PST

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