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What will be the average temperature in Chicago in March according to on Mar. 31?




Average Chicago Temperature for March


Predicted: 42.00

Actual: 39.50

  • completed

Question ends

March 31, 2007 @ 08:00pm PDT



Predictions Made


Most by: Bodger (4 predictions)


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tuvwxyz   •   Wed Feb 28 2007 at 04:53pm PST

Question: Is this average high or average low?

mhafter   •   Sun Mar 04 2007 at 08:49pm PST

This would be the average average. I’m not sure exactly how it’s calculated; you’ll have to check with for that. My method for verifying the result will be going to, typing in Chicago,IL, and clicking the average temperature for the month.

If you have any more questions, please don’t hesitate to post and I will try to answer them.

-Mark Hafter

jaimev   •   Wed Mar 14 2007 at 09:00am PDT

Please post the exact URL to the page you plan to reference to determine the outcome.

PerfectHandle   •   Wed Mar 28 2007 at 10:39am PDT

Yeah…on the month-to-date totals, they have an average high and an average low. Is there another average temp on there that we’re missing?

mhafter   •   Wed Mar 28 2007 at 11:52am PDT

To Mr. Stevens: I’m sorry I couldn’t reply to your message directly – I too am new here so I couldn’t really figure it out. This market got a little messed up, so I will have to see what happens with it when it closes. What happens is the shares representing the correct prediction are worth 100 each at the end, and the incorrect shares 0. So I guess you could say it is all or nothing.

-Mark Hafter

adam (ADMIN)   •   Wed Mar 28 2007 at 09:34pm PDT

This is a futures market, so the price SHOULD cash out at whatever the actual average is at the end of the month, not the $100 or $0 that is mentioned below.

mhafter   •   Fri Mar 30 2007 at 09:29pm PDT

Adam, you are quite right. Here’s what I see: At first, the system offered two choices: “Higher than 37 degrees” and “Lower than 37 degrees” and allowed the buyers to invest in either choice. Now, I think there is a slight problem: it thinks the price should be the answer to the question. This is probably my fault considering this is my first try. When I close out the market tomorrow, I will try to be as fair to everyone as possible in terms of what happened. If you have any specific concerns or suggestions, feel free to personal message me, or leave a comment. I always check my e-mail and am thrilled to hear from people bidding on my market. Again, I am sorry for all this confusion, and I hope it works out for everyone.

-Mark Hafter

mhafter   •   Fri Mar 30 2007 at 09:36pm PDT


Adam, as to your previous comment, I believe I can cash this out at the actual temperature that will be the average as of tomorrow at 8:00 pm. I just looked at the closing menu and I can cash it out at a certain value. I don’t know what that means in terms of individual gain or loss, but that’s about all I can do, and the computer can handle it from there.

cygnusx3   •   Sun Apr 01 2007 at 01:25am PDT

It appaears we have resolution at 40 degrees as the average, mean temperature for March in Chicago.

Bodger   •   Sun Apr 01 2007 at 10:16am PDT

The average listed at cygnusx3’s link is a multi-year average — the mean temperature for every March since they started keeping records a hundred years ago. It’s computed by taking the average between the mean high and the mean low (you can check that: (avg. high + avg. low)/2 = mean). Since it’s an average of all years, one year’s temperatures are unlikely to move it around by more than a few tenths of a degree.

I can’t find where lists the mean temperature for THIS march, but I computed it to be 43.4 F by taking the mean of the daily high and low temperatures as listed at . The National Weather Service lists an average for the month near the bottom of their monthly climate summary (Search for AVERAGE MONTHLY), which hasn’t yet been released for this March but will be at when it is. You can check previous months at .

cygnusx3   •   Sun Apr 01 2007 at 02:00pm PDT

Yeah, well you can’t fault a guy for trying. Ok, real thing now – you want the average temp. for March in Chicago? Here it is, day by day:

And in point of fact, much to my dismay, this March was an astounding 6 degrees higher than normal. 43.1 degrees as measured at Midway. But, maybe my math was wrong so please, do double check! (BTW, if you want the source a source of the 36 degrees i cited aboue, it is:

Bodger   •   Tue Apr 03 2007 at 08:35am PDT

I like the chicago_climo guy’s presentation style — I hope he posts some information on Portland or Seattle soon so us Northwesters can see how wonky our weather is getting.

Bodger   •   Tue Apr 03 2007 at 08:45am PDT

The NWS data for March is up now, and it says 42.5 F at O’Hare. I’m interested to notice that the market was hovering around 50, ten whole degrees above’s monthly average, until it closed in on 42. I wonder if traders are collectively very convinced about global warming, or if some other factor kept the price from coming down earlier.

historical trend

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Average Chicago Temperature for March