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Which of the listed 9 Democratic Senators, will NOT return to the Senate as a member, following the 2012 general elections?




Sen. Ben Nelson (NE).


Predicted: 77.35%

Actual: 100.00%

Sen. Bill Nelson (FL).


Predicted: 6.57%

Actual: 0.00%

Sen. Bob Kerrey (NE)


Predicted: 92.53%

Actual: 100.00%

Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO).


Predicted: 8.45%

Actual: 0.00%

Sen. Dianne Feinstein


Predicted: 1.22%

Actual: 0.00%

Sen. Harry Reid (NV).


Predicted: 4.04%

Actual: 0.00%

Sen. Joe Manchin (WV).


Predicted: 8.95%

Actual: 0.00%

Sen. Jon Tester (MT).


Predicted: 80.29%

Actual: 0.00%

Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH).


Predicted: 5.96%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 01, 2012 @ 06:59pm PDT

Predictions Made


Most by: SneakyPete (77 predictions)


Sort by: Down Date

SneakyPete   •   Thu Jan 12 2012 at 03:09pm PST

Florida Senate Race Razor Tight.

A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida shows Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) locked in a very tight race with likely challenger Connie Mack®, 41% to 40%.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Mar 22 2011 at 08:54am PDT

Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill just disclosed that she failed to pay $287,000 in property taxes related to her co-ownership of a private aircraft. This scandal comes quickly on the heels of recent revelations that McCaskill improperly billed taxpayers for use of the same private aircraft, for which McCaskill reimbursed the Treasury $88,000.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Mar 21 2011 at 09:38am PDT

Tester in Very Close Re-Election Race
A new Billings Gazette State Poll in Montana finds Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) and challenger Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-MT) in a virtual dead heat for U.S. Senate, 46% to 45% with 9% undecided.

m_i_k_e   •   Tue Feb 22 2011 at 05:04pm PST

kind of doubting the responsiveness of this market that this was not immediately bid down to something much more realistic.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Mar 21 2011 at 09:43am PDT

In answer to your question, While this market is out a good length of time, I did it to see what happens with additional Senators possible dropping out, either not runnig, getting defeated, or running for a different office. We have seen 10+ Senators, from both sides of the isle, already leaving the 2012 Senatorial races. It is going to be very interesting year ahead fo political junkies.

FCIC   •   Tue Feb 22 2011 at 03:03pm PST

harry reid is not up for reelection, eh?

sircu5   •   Tue Feb 22 2011 at 03:06pm PST

This was my thought too. Sadly, I couldn’t short him more. I’d give him a default 10-15%, maybe 20% chance of just retiring for whatever reason.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Feb 22 2011 at 04:35pm PST

Both FCIC & you are correct. Senator Reid is not up for re-election as he won re-election last year. There is a “Remote???” possibility that he could retire if the odds are that the Senate would switch from Democrat to Republican control in 2012. Will he want to remain as a Senator after holding the Majority Leader for so long. Just added him as a curiosity choice.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Jul 06 2011 at 11:17am PDT

That would be “Democratic to Republican control” — unless you want to be consistently wrong, then you could say “Democrat to Republic control” — ;)

sircu5   •   Wed Feb 23 2011 at 02:36am PST

It might have been good to set his initial price differently. An interesting strategy might have been to put all the senators up for election at a default 10% and all the others at 1%. It’s quite expensive to short people down from 50%, but comparitively cheap to get them up from 10% and even cheaper from 1%. This might have produced a more responsive market.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Mar 22 2011 at 08:55am PDT

Thanks for your good comments. Will consider in the future.


"She will remain BUT shoud not."

SneakyPete sold Sen. Dianne Feinstein at 9.49%
September 30, 2012 @ 11:50am PDT

"Mo is trending Red, and MacCaskill has potential ethics issues flying about"

fester986 bought Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO). at 54.99%
April 05, 2011 @ 01:26pm PDT

"A Dem can't out teabag a Republican in Nebraska"

fester986 bought Sen. Ben Nelson (NE). at 44.03%
March 10, 2011 @ 03:06am PST

historical trend

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